Winter Banter 24-25

[coastalplainsnowman]

6 hours ago, Yanksfan said:

With the lack of snow in the NYC metro area (this includes NE Jersey) in recent years, I would get the usual gruff from friends and family that would say it’s climate change better get used to it. Now we finally have the cold air this winter and we still cant cash in. The response I hear is confluence and improper trough alignment, Yet when there’s a cutter forecast from 10 days out, you can bet the mortgage it’s a lock. My point is it just comes down to bad luck nothing more. 

I really like that 'snow triangle' that someone's been sharing on here with cold, moisture (I think) and luck, but for significant storms, for those of us near the coast,  the triangle should be seriously obtuse (like me sometimes?) with the 'luck' side being the long side.  It's always been this way.

This is why I don't get when I read things (not yours, just in general)  like 'throw in the towel it's so hard to get snow here anymore'  (especially when we see places *south* of us jackpotting now and then.)  The 'luck' side of that triangle is so big for us in any given year, that even if temps are averaging noticeably higher than 30 years ago, I don't think the impact on getting big storms here is so great, especially when you look at how warm some of those winters were in the 2000-2018 snowy era.  Could it mean a megasnowstorm every 20 years instead of every 15?  Maybe, but that just means that you went from a 6.7% chance in a given year to a 5% chance.  The odds are already very much against it around here, and part of what makes it 93.3% frustrating and 6.7% fun.

 

 

 

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't that the way lake effect works though-- it's usually slightly elevated and a little bit away from the lake shore.

It was raining on the beach and snowing on top of the bluff.

[Nibor]

@LibertyBellbro you post too much for this to be acceptable.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Nibor said:

@LibertyBellbro you post too much for this to be acceptable.

They're supposed to be 200x200 I don't know why they look so big =\ I'll just post one then.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It was raining on the beach and snowing on top of the bluff.

wow that sometimes happens in very early season lake effect events doesn't it.... the lakes are so warm that it rains at the shore but it's snow farther inland? I'm not sure, will have to research that.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Nibor said:

@LibertyBellbro you post too much for this to be acceptable.

I made it much smaller after taking a screenshot of this but it still doesn't look right so I'll just pick one image that I took and use that

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Nibor said:

@LibertyBellbro you post too much for this to be acceptable.

okay all fixed now :-)

[North and West]

.

[STORMANLI]

On 1/7/2025 at 11:12 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not sure but, we really need to build a huge manmade lake in northeast Pennsylvania. Maybe from Scranton to the NYS border, the bigger the better. I know you and several others have a house there but, to hell with the Poconos. 

I believe optimum fetch is 100 miles or more, but unsure about minimum; perhaps 45-60 miles.  Maybe if there was an underwater volcano at least 100 miles offshore that would erupt and create an island chain like Hawaii along with some decent elevation. Sometimes it appears that that cold-air cumulus is precipitating a boatload of snow out in the ocean. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, STORMANLI said:

I believe optimum fetch is 100 miles or more, but unsure about minimum; perhaps 45-60 miles.  Maybe if there was an underwater volcano at least 100 miles offshore that would erupt and create an island chain like Hawaii along with some decent elevation. Sometimes it appears that that cold-air cumulus is precipitating a boatload of snow out in the ocean. 

If Long Island were somehow shoved about 100 miles southeast I guarantee it would have a lot more snow.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If Long Island were somehow shoved about 100 miles southeast I guarantee it would have a lot more snow.

Not really it would be surrounded by warmer maritime air-would be mostly rain 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not really it would be surrounded by warmer maritime air-would be mostly rain 

100 miles is close enough to bring in more sound effect snow on NW winds though.

Ever notice on satellite there's this almost permanent band of snow showers south of Long Island when we have strong NW winds? That's what I want to tap into.

[LibertyBell]

omg we have rabies here

 

8 cases of rabies in Nassau county over the past week (mostly rabid raccoons and feral cats).

On ABC they said that raccoons with rabies make a weird high pitched shrieking sound and that's exactly what I heard in my backyard at night a few weeks ago....

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If Long Island were somehow shoved about 100 miles southeast I guarantee it would have a lot more snow.

I guarantee it would have a lot more sound-effect rain.

Maybe an extra 10 or 20 miles would boost some snowfalls, but I'm not sure it would offset all of the negatives.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I guarantee it would have a lot more sound-effect rain.

Maybe an extra 10 or 20 miles would boost some snowfalls, but I'm not sure it would offset all of the negatives.

Oh 10-20 miles sounds good, but do you recall when we have strong northwesterly winds we have streamers of snow showers set up south of us over the ocean?  Would it only take 10-20 miles to tap into that?

 

[IrishRob17]

On 1/2/2025 at 7:46 PM, Rjay said:

@IrishRob17

LFG!!!

My son flew out of DFW to Miami on Wednesday. It was killing him to be leaving the storm but he had to do what he had to do LOL. Some PSU fans put the ass in class where he was sitting last night, throwing empty beer cans at him but he had the last laugh. No one owned up to throwing the cans when he turned around so at the end of the game he turned around with one of the cans in his hand and simply said "Got any more?!" Crickets of course after that. HERE COME THE IRISH!

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

My son flew out of DFW to Miami on Wednesday. It was killing him to be leaving the storm but he had to do what he had to do LOL. Some PSU fans put the ass in class where he was sitting last night, throwing empty beer cans at him but he had the last laugh. No one owned up to throwing the cans when he turned around so at the end of the game he turned around with one of the cans in his hand and simply said "Got any more?!" Crickets of course after that. HERE COME THE IRISH!

Can't stand PSU

[MJO812]

I finally took down my tree 

[RedSky]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I finally took down my tree 

Some people leave it up till March 

[forkyfork]

i open the windows and let birds and squirrels live in it 

[RedSky]

In California they let it burn down

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i open the windows and let birds and squirrels live in it 

rats too?

[coastalplainsnowman]

Total banter topic:  I just looked at the date I created my account here and I almost fell over.  I cannot believe how fast time flies by.

[North and West]

Total banter topic:  I just looked at the date I created my account here and I almost fell over.  I cannot believe how fast time flies by.

Time flies when you’re typing into the void.


.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Total banter topic:  I just looked at the date I created my account here and I almost fell over.  I cannot believe how fast time flies by.

You missed a good January.

[donsutherland1]

On 12/28/2024 at 6:17 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Increasingly, it appears that credible meteorological organizations and meteorologists are being drowned out by Social Media hype by amateurs and some of their own peers. The amateurs may not necessarily know better, but one would expect that the professionals would. But exaggerated posts (snowstorms, SSWs, and severe cold) in recent years hints otherwise.

Last night, the 12/28 0z ECMWF operational model forecast a historic-type Arctic blast. Several professional accounts were among Social Media accounts trumpeting the model verbatim. At least one even specifically referred to "historic cold."

A turn toward colder weather is likely in early January and the second week of January could be much colder than normal. But there is a large distinction between much colder than normal, a significant Arctic blast, and a historic-type Arctic blast.

If one examines the bigger picture one finds:

1. Historic-type Arctic blasts have become less common as the Arctic region has warmed and the Northern Hemisphere's deep cold pool has shrunk. The last true historic large-scale Arctic blast occurred in February 11-20, 2021.

2. The climate has warmed, particularly since 2000.

The ongoing warming is a big reason why the Contiguous U.S. has not seen a winter where excessively cold minimum temperatures have exceeded areal coverage of excessively warm minimum temperatures (winter average) since 2013-2014:

Here are the Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies 2 weeks and 1 week before the start of the February 2021 historic Arctic outbreak:

2 weeks:

1 week:

3 days:

And here's the latest map (December 26, 2024):

Key Difference: There was much more very cold air, both on our side of the Northern Hemisphere and the Northern Hemisphere overall prior to the February 2021 Arctic outbreak.

It is unclear whether those accounts have much understanding of how to use ensembles, even as they almost certainly have awareness of ensembles. IMO, those accounts would do well to visit and study WPC's outstanding ensemble training page:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/

The WPC guide notes of operational model runs: "...in a chaotic system like an atmospheric model, non linear errors (although inconsequential in short lead times) will grow - sometimes rapidly.  Eventually these growing errors cause the model forecast ouput to eventually become useless." That lesson is ignored or not well-understood by the accounts hyping historic cold outbreaks some 10 days or more in the future.

If one looks at the latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, one sees significant, but not historic cold is currently forecast:

The very cold ECMWF weekly outlook for January 6-13:

That's very cold. But it doesn't match the coldest shots since 2000 in Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

All said, the recent ECMWF weeklies, including today's run, is plenty cold to communicate the message that it will likely turn significantly colder in the long-range with the potential of a severe shot of cold. Exaggeration and hype are not needed. There is no need to invoke historic Arctic outbreaks that still have very little support (occasional runs on a single model, no run-to-run continuity, no widespread ensemble or other model support), especially at timeframes when operational model skill scores are low.

Speaking of very little support, the 12/28 12z ECMWF still contains an Arctic outbreak during the second week of January, but it is nowhere near as frigid as the 12/28 0z run featured and pushed on Social Media by multiple accounts.

And for the Social Media accounts that hyped the 0z run, no mention whatsoever about the 12z run?

What is likely?

January 10-20, will likely see the temperature fall well into the teens and perhaps even single digits in New York City and Philadelphia. Boston will likely see single digits with perhaps a chance at a subzero low. Detroit , Chicago, and Indianapolis could see one or more subzero lows. None of those cities will likely see historic-type cold e.g., widespread subzero lows from Washington, DC to Boston and double-digit subzero lows in Chicago, Indianapolis, and Detroit. Some of those cities might see their coldest readings of the 2020s, but most very likely won't exceed their coldest readings since 2000. Most or all of those cities likely won't experience their coldest 7-day period since 2000. Historic-type low temperatures and 7-day mean temperatures are unlikely.

And if the cold fails to measure up to the coldest Arctic outbreaks since 2000, one can expect the Social Media accounts to still claim that they were "correct" in their assessment. However, in fact, their assessment would be wrong, as the cold wasn't even three-decade cold, much less historic-type cold. The general public will then come away with yet another example that skews their perceptions of the meteorology profession, lumping in outstanding public and private sector meteorologists with those who seek Social Media clicks and engagement.

 

Update through January 10th:

Two Key Points:

1. None of the highlighted cities has seen their coldest low temperature or coldest 7-day period since 2020. The current lowest temperature and 7-day mean temperature could be surpassed later this month, but most or all areas likely won't see their coldest low temperature or coldest 7-day period of the 2020s.

2. The lack of a deep cold pool and, at least through January 10th, the failure to establish cross-polar flow has contributed to a warmer outcome than the Social Media calls for historic-type cold.

In general, one should be wary of Social Media "meteorology" sites that hype extremes. There's a lot more involved than simply cutting and pasting model runs e.g., the due diligence involved in assessing the likelihood that the models will verify (in this case, the lack of an expansive pool of deep cold in the Northern Hemisphere was a glaring "red flag").

At present, I am not aware of any of the sites that had hyped coming historic-type cold even beginning to acknowledge their unfolding error. Unfortunately, as the general public was exposed to the hype, one can reasonably expect that the gap between the hype and what actually verifies will further skew public perceptions.

Indeed, things are currently breaking somewhat warmer than I had anticipated in the initial post.

The final numbers will be verified.

[rclab]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Update through January 10th:

Two Key Points:

1. None of the highlighted cities has seen their coldest low temperature or coldest 7-day period since 2020. The current lowest temperature and 7-day mean temperature could be surpassed later this month, but most or all areas likely won't see their coldest low temperature or coldest 7-day period of the 2020s.

2. The lack of a deep cold pool and, at least through January 10th, the failure to establish cross-polar flow has contributed to a warmer outcome than the Social Media calls for historic-type cold.

In general, one should be wary of Social Media "meteorology" sites that hype extremes. There's a lot more involved than simply cutting and pasting model runs e.g., the due diligence involved in assessing the likelihood that the models will verify (in this case, the lack of an expansive pool of deep cold in the Northern Hemisphere was a glaring "red flag").

At present, I am not aware of any of the sites that had hyped coming historic-type cold even beginning to acknowledge their unfolding error. Unfortunately, as the general public was exposed to the hype, one can reasonably expect that the gap between the hype and what actually verifies will further skew public perceptions.

Indeed, things are currently breaking somewhat warmer than I had anticipated in the initial post.

The final numbers will be verified.

Agreed and thank you Don. Even if Baltimore were added to the last three charted cities you could still say that we are a climatological megalopolis. Stay well, as always ….

[dseagull]

The 19th-21st shall deliver, and the weanies will rejoice.   Let it be so. 

[nycwinter]

what a  lousy winter it has been so far... whats even more lousy is the negative comments i been reading in the weather threads  if this is what winters will be like from now due to climate change on why even bother.

[Volcanic Winter]

26 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what a  lousy winter it has been so far... whats even more lousy is the negative comments i been reading in the weather threads  if this is what winters will be like from now due to climate change on why even bother.

We’ve had a string of warm, wet, and nearly snowless winters. Now we’ve at least reshuffled the deck and have a colder winter, albeit dry and suppressive to this point. It’s Jan 11th… We have time to play this out and see how things progress. 

And climate change isn’t a catch all behind every point to point swing of the teleconnections. It’s more like loading the proverbial die towards specific outcomes being more frequent (like warm and wet). 

This is the first winter so far that is presenting with a different character, so let’s play it out at least another … month maybe? Before getting completely down in the dumps. It definitely sucks, but I think there’s reason enough to remain somewhat optimistic for at least a couple decent snow events at least with actual (relative) cold in place for the next several weeks.