Winter Banter 24-25

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Eh, I disagree. The more verboten you seemingly make something, the more alluring it becomes to some.


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Our TV networks and even TWC certainly love to talk about it.  One almost gets the feeling they're jealous because of the attention social media gets.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

By the way a pretty celestial show in the SW sky right now..... the crescent moon with a very bright planet just to its right.... I think that's Venus?

 

 

Yup, it's Venus, tomorrow night it will be Saturn.

 

https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/visible-planets-tonight-mars-jupiter-venus-saturn-mercury/

The waxing crescent moon will lie between brilliant Venus and Saturn about 2 hours after sunset on January 3. The moon moves closer to Saturn on January 4. Observers in parts of Africa, Europe and Greenland will see the moon occult – or pass in front of Saturn – at 17 UTC on January 4. The bright – and often called the loneliest star – Fomalhaut is nearby. Look for earthshine – that’s light reflected from Earth – on the unlit portion of the moon. They’ll set mid-to-late evening. Chart via EarthSky.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

What I said in the post on December 20th that you just quoted was correct as we are dealing with the same fast Pacific flow. Heights are verifying lower over the EPAC and WNA than forecast. So not sure what the point is that you are trying to make. The current trough undercutting the weaker ridge than forecast out West is the reason the heaviest totals with storm are getting suppressed south. Faster flow and lower heights out west allow less shortwave spacing especially with a 50/50 low and confluence. 

EPS original forecast for this week from the December 20th post you quoted

 

I was correct about the much weaker ridge and faster Pacific Jet undercutting the ridge

 

You can also see the source region for this "arctic" air, it's essentially maritime air recycled around the huge upper low. Cold enough for snow certainly but we don't have a connection to the pole. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

You can also see the source region for this "arctic" air, it's essentially maritime air recycled around the huge upper low. Cold enough for snow certainly but we don't have a connection to the pole. 

The forward trajectory for what lies ahead shows this quite well.

 

And here's the source region of today's air mass:

 

The bottom line: there has been no true cross-polar flow and none appears likely through the near-term.

Unfortunately, I suspect that the terms "Arctic air" and "cross-polar flow" are increasingly used generically to refer to colder air rather than in the true sense of the terms.

[Volcanic Winter]

@ma blizzard@LibertyBell

This is very interesting, just hearing about this discovery for the first time... A previously unknown volcano produced another major cooling episode only 15 years after Tambora, in 1831. The volcano was recently identified - Zavaritski in the Kuril Islands. Very young looking caldera, so I'm sure geologists were drawn to investigate this system as soon as they were able.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14236299/Scientists-finally-reveal-cause-1831s-global-cooling-event-caused-crop-failures-devastating-famines.html

https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/the-mystery-of-the-1831-volcanic-eruption-solved-394611

This was likely a very large eruption, somewhere between Pinatubo and Tambora (probably in the middle).

[dseagull]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Have you seen the state of this country? LOL

Is America really for anyone anymore?

I have seen the state of this country.   Big government is part of what put us here.  

America will always be for me, through the good and bad times.  I swore an oath to uphold the constitution, and those who came before me who died protecting the rights you take take forgranted, would say the same if they were still on this side of the dirt.  

Have a good new year. Enjoy your GOD given rights. 

[BxEngine]

Are we done? For fucks sake. This is the weather banter thread. Enough political bs.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@ma blizzard@LibertyBell

This is very interesting, just hearing about this discovery for the first time... A previously unknown volcano produced another major cooling episode only 15 years after Tambora, in 1831. The volcano was recently identified - Zavaritski in the Kuril Islands. Very young looking caldera, so I'm sure geologists were drawn to investigate this system as soon as they were able.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14236299/Scientists-finally-reveal-cause-1831s-global-cooling-event-caused-crop-failures-devastating-famines.html

https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/the-mystery-of-the-1831-volcanic-eruption-solved-394611

This was likely a very large eruption, somewhere between Pinatubo and Tambora (probably in the middle).

The Kuril Islands are at a high latitude, do you think it could influence the climate?

I guess so, if a volcano in Iceland can do it too.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The forward trajectory for what lies ahead shows this quite well.

 

And here's the source region of today's air mass:

 

The bottom line: there has been no true cross-polar flow and none appears likely through the near-term.

Unfortunately, I suspect that the terms "Arctic air" and "cross-polar flow" are increasingly used generically to refer to colder air rather than in the true sense of the terms.

I don't know about cross polar flow, but it sure is cold tonight, this horrible wind is really hitting me in my bones lol.

Last week, TWC was saying that this air is coming from Siberia.....

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The forward trajectory for what lies ahead shows this quite well.

 

And here's the source region of today's air mass:

 

The bottom line: there has been no true cross-polar flow and none appears likely through the near-term.

Unfortunately, I suspect that the terms "Arctic air" and "cross-polar flow" are increasingly used generically to refer to colder air rather than in the true sense of the terms.

Question, why doesn't the air ever come in a straight direction instead of taking all these weird squiggly turns and loops?

If humans ever become advanced enough to modify the climate on purpose, that's the first thing I would fix.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The Kuril Islands are at a high latitude, do you think it could influence the climate?

I guess so, if a volcano in Iceland can do it too.

 

 

Yup, the article mentions there was an extremely potent cooling episode in 1831 traced to this eruption. This is how scientists identify windows going back through history where there was likely an unknown large eruption; if they find evidence of a volcanic perturbed climate with no known eruption that lines up, they know they have to hunt for one. 1808/9 was a big one, right before Tambora. Huge sulfate spike in the ice cores. 

Also high latitude eruptions may even more easily disrupt the climate due to the lower tropopause; it’s easier for the eruption column  to breach the stratosphere.

But this is pretty clearly the last pulse of the LIA between 1808/9 -> Tambora, and now this. Large driver of the final 50 years of the LIA, assuming an agreed upon end point of 1850.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Question, why doesn't the air ever come in a straight direction instead of taking all these weird squiggly turns and loops?

If humans ever become advanced enough to modify the climate on purpose, that's the first thing I would fix.

 

 

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't know about cross polar flow, but it sure is cold tonight, this horrible wind is really hitting me in my bones lol.

Last week, TWC was saying that this air is coming from Siberia.....

I can't comment on why others might have felt that a Siberian air mass would be moving into eastern North America. However, the model data shows that the current air mass does not have Siberian origins.

As to the air masses traveling in straight directions, it has happened with rapid discharges of Arctic air. But there are many synoptic features, so one often sees the kind of paths shown on the Hysplit data I posted.

[coastalplainsnowman]

Thought this group would enjoy this, going back to our topic on regular media looking silly re the weather. From the Post this morning. "Brrr!",  "bone-chilling cold", "bitterly cold."  You see, it's going to be so cold that they had to show the *lows* rather than the highs for each day.  20s I tell ya! I can almost hear the editor from the Daily Planet in the Spiderman movies shouting "Show the low tempeartures!  Say Brrr Bitter cold!"  And I *like* the Post lol.

[NorthShoreWx]

11 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

 

This is offensive 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

21 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Thought this group would enjoy this, going back to our topic on regular media looking silly re the weather. From the Post this morning. "Brrr!",  "bone-chilling cold", "bitterly cold."  You see, it's going to be so cold that they had to show the *lows* rather than the highs for each day.  20s I tell ya! I can almost hear the editor from the Daily Planet in the Spiderman movies shouting "Show the low tempeartures!  Say Brrr Bitter cold!"  And I *like* the Post lol.

Bitter cold lows, a couple of degrees above average. Sounds about right. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Thought this group would enjoy this, going back to our topic on regular media looking silly re the weather. From the Post this morning. "Brrr!",  "bone-chilling cold", "bitterly cold."  You see, it's going to be so cold that they had to show the *lows* rather than the highs for each day.  20s I tell ya! I can almost hear the editor from the Daily Planet in the Spiderman movies shouting "Show the low tempeartures!  Say Brrr Bitter cold!"  And I *like* the Post lol.

I thought the Daily Planet was from Superman.

Something else I have noticed is, aside from low temperatures, they are showing wind chill temperatures only.  I have even heard TV weather presenters (are they actually meteorologists?) say that actual temperatures *do not matter* and that the general public should only be told what the wind chill *temperature* is.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Bitter cold lows, a couple of degrees above average. Sounds about right. 

Maybe they are talking about wind chills, but even so.... the idea that some are thinking of replacing reporting actual temperatures with wind chill *temperatures* is mind boggling.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yup, the article mentions there was an extremely potent cooling episode in 1831 traced to this eruption. This is how scientists identify windows going back through history where there was likely an unknown large eruption; if they find evidence of a volcanic perturbed climate with no known eruption that lines up, they know they have to hunt for one. 1808/9 was a big one, right before Tambora. Huge sulfate spike in the ice cores. 

Also high latitude eruptions may even more easily disrupt the climate due to the lower tropopause; it’s easier for the eruption column  to breach the stratosphere.

But this is pretty clearly the last pulse of the LIA between 1808/9 -> Tambora, and now this. Large driver of the final 50 years of the LIA, assuming an agreed upon end point of 1850.

It checks with what I read in the Pennsylvania Weather Book, where a number of our coldest and snowiest winters during the 1800s were during the 1830s.  A couple of those winters (1832-33 and 1835-36 I think?) reportedly had continuous snow cover in NYC and Philly from Thanksgiving through St Paddy's Day and 100 inches total snowfall in both cities. And this is using the old measuring technique when snowfall was only measured at the end of the event.

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought the Daily Planet was from Superman.

Something else I have noticed is, aside from low temperatures, they are showing wind chill temperatures only.  I have even heard TV weather presenters (are they actually meteorologists?) say that actual temperatures *do not matter* and that the general public should only be told what the wind chill *temperature* is.

 

 

Shoot, yes, Daily Bugle!  I stepped on my punchline.

[JonClaw]

Straight to the weather model porn folder 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It checks with what I read in the Pennsylvania Weather Book, where a number of our coldest and snowiest winters during the 1800s were during the 1830s.  A couple of those winters (1832-33 and 1835-36 I think?) reportedly had continuous snow cover in NYC and Philly from Thanksgiving through St Paddy's Day and 100 inches total snowfall in both cities. And this is using the old measuring technique when snowfall was only measured at the end of the event.

 

Early January 1835 saw an extremely cold air mass invade the eastern U.S. The air mass was largely unmodified Arctic air.

On January 4th, the temperature bottomed out at -23° in New Haven.  The January 6, 1835 issue of the New York Mercantile Advertiser wrote:

 We have never known ice [to] accumulate in our harbor more rapidly than it has done since Saturday evening [evening of January 3]. The North River [Hudson River] was covered yesterday nearly down to the Battery, and there being but little wind, the ice remained stationary, and requires but a short time more of severe weather to give us a solid bridge to Jersey City and Hoboken. In the East riverr, the ice was moved by the tide, and left occasional openings for the ferry boats. At one o’clock the river was completely blocked with ice for a short time, above the Fulton St. ferry, so that several persons crossed upon it to and from Brooklyn. Large fields of ice in the upper and lower bays drifting with the tide, occasionally block up the Narrows, and render it difficult for vessels to get into port without the aid of steamboats.

The January 9, 1835 edition of Charleston, SC's The Southern Patriot described conditions in Savannah as follows:

The cold which visited us on Sunday has not left us, and icicles are still pendant from trees and roofs, aided by the unusual appearance of snow on the ground. On Monday morning one might have thought that he was in Canada, not Georgia, as everything wore one uniform white Livery. At the time we are writing, snow is still lying in those places secluded from the sun.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Early January 1835 saw an extremely cold air mass invade the eastern U.S. The air mass was largely unmodified Arctic air.

On January 4th, the temperature bottomed out at -23° in New Haven.  The January 6, 1835 issue of the New York Mercantile Advertiser wrote:

 We have never known ice [to] accumulate in our harbor more rapidly than it has done since Saturday evening [evening of January 3]. The North River [Hudson River] was covered yesterday nearly down to the Battery, and there being but little wind, the ice remained stationary, and requires but a short time more of severe weather to give us a solid bridge to jersey City and Hoboken. In the East river, the ice was moved by the tide, and left occasional openings for the ferry boats. At one o’clock the river was completely blocked with ice for a short time, above the Fulton St. ferry, so that several persons crossed upon it to and from Brooklyn. Large fields of ice in the upper and lower bays drifting with the tide, occasionally block up the Narrows, and render it difficult for vessels to get into port without the aid of steamboats.

The January 9, 1835 edition of Charleston, SC's The Southern Patriot described conditions in Savannah as follows:

The cold which visited us on Sunday has not left us, and icicles are still pendant from trees and roofs, aided by the unusual appearance of snow on the ground. On Monday morning one might have thought that he was in Canada, not Georgia, as everything wore one uniform white Livery. At the time we are writing, snow is still lying in those places secluded from the sun.

 

Wow thanks, Don, I wonder had there been weather instrumentation in Central Park it would have recorded a colder temperature than the -15 recorded in February 1934? The only colder temperature I see from New York City is the report of -16 during an extreme arctic outbreak in January 1783 (also after a volcanic eruption-- that was the famous one in Iceland.)

[IrishRob17]

29 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

Straight to the weather model porn folder 

Already on social media. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Yeah, that’s a high level HECS as depicted. Was reading some discussion in the NE sub and one of the mets was saying the setup was very noisy / complicated; essentially  there are a lot of pieces that could easily disrupt that outcome.

Definitely filing for now under, “super unlikely but damn that’s beautiful.” 

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, that’s a high level HECS as depicted. Was reading some discussion in the NE sub and one of the mets was saying the setup was very noisy / complicated; essentially  there are a lot of pieces that could easily disrupt that outcome.

Definitely filing for now under, “super unlikely but damn that’s beautiful.” 

That's a once every 20 years storm so naturally everything would have to go perfectly

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow thanks, Don, I wonder had there been weather instrumentation in Central Park it would have recorded a colder temperature than the -15 recorded in February 1934? The only colder temperature I see from New York City is the report of -16 during an extreme arctic outbreak in January 1783 (also after a volcanic eruption-- that was the famous one in Iceland.)

I believe the -16 occurred in 1780, not 1783.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's a once every 20 years storm so naturally everything would have to go perfectly

Maybe once in 10 years, I have a hard time believing that we'll get a storm like January 2016 again in our lifetimes, for the city and coast of course.

[wishcast_hater]

Straight to the weather model porn folder 

God we need this. Everyone would be so alleviated.


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[wishcast_hater]

Maybe once in 10 years, I have a hard time believing that we'll get a storm like January 2016 again in our lifetimes, for the city and coast of course.

Still waiting for 1996 Redux.


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[wishcast_hater]

Yeah, that’s a high level HECS as depicted. Was reading some discussion in the NE sub and one of the mets was saying the setup was very noisy / complicated; essentially  there are a lot of pieces that could easily disrupt that outcome.
Definitely filing for now under, “super unlikely but damn that’s beautiful.” 

Can anyone show me a past HECS where the scenario wasn’t complicated?


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