Winter Banter 24-25

[Dark Star]

On 12/31/2024 at 12:47 PM, the_other_guy said:

Your guys make fun of the general public…

 

Whenever I see a perfect storm 10 days out and the posters on here jumping all over it I just laugh.

 

There is no perfect storm 10 days out.

January is up to 19 pages already on 12/31 based on a threat on 1/6

 

And some of you make fun of social media

I think this site is considered social media?

[Rjay]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Other forum

CooL still loves this pattern coming up

I'd def roll the dice with this pattern over anything we've seen over the last couple of years. 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

I think this site is considered social media?

Rjays avatar begs to differ, stay well this year and all to follow, as always ….

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

I'd def roll the dice with this pattern over anything we've seen over the last couple of years. 

Same, I’m happy with whatever happens. At least it’ll appreciatively feel like winter and not extended fall as usual. Hoping 1/6 jogs a bit more northward, but if not - oh well. We’ll have our chances. 

[donsutherland1]

Apparently the local NBC outlet called out one site that has been hyping coming extreme to historic cold for several weeks. Viewers were probably asking why the station wasn’t forecasting such cold.

IMO, only when meteorologists start to call out their own peers for irresponsible claims will incentives for hyping events for clicks and engagement diminish. 

This is a welcome development.

[North and West]

Apparently the local NBC outlet called out one site that has been hyping coming extreme to historic cold for several weeks. Viewers were probably asking why the station wasn’t forecasting such cold.

IMO, only when meteorologists start to call out their own peers for irresponsible claims will incentives for hyping events for clicks and engagement diminish. 
This is a welcome development.

Problem is, you can’t stop or account for human behavior or taste. We’re all susceptible to propaganda in our own way (we know these things are b.s., but they’re giving the people what they subconsciously want, which is insane weather forecasts), though luckily we can see through the social media insanity here.

As for BOGO deals at Starbucks for the missus and myself, I succumb to the siren call of “free” coffee.


.

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, North and West said:

Problem is, you can’t stop or account for human behavior or taste. We’re all susceptible to propaganda in our own way (we know these things are b.s., but they’re giving the people what they subconsciously want, which is insane weather forecasts), though luckily we can see through the social media insanity here.

As for BOGO deals at Starbucks for the missus and myself, I succumb to the siren call of “free” coffee.


.

Yes, that is true. But it's still worth trying to identify those who routinely make irresponsibly extreme calls if the public is to be truly weather-aware.

[gravitylover]

I started following a few on FB so I could start injecting bits of reality and throwing sliders in and bursting bubbles. I've had little successes here and there. It's kinda fun actually.

[North and West]

I started following a few on FB so I could start injecting bits of reality and throwing sliders in and bursting bubbles. I've had little successes here and there. It's kinda fun actually.

You know, as with anything, people are going to hear what they want to hear.


.

[Nibor]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Apparently the local NBC outlet called out one site that has been hyping coming extreme to historic cold for several weeks. Viewers were probably asking why the station wasn’t forecasting such cold.

IMO, only when meteorologists start to call out their own peers for irresponsible claims will incentives for hyping events for clicks and engagement diminish. 

This is a welcome development.

If we can’t regulate it I’m all for public shaming. Bring out the tar and feathers.

[Rjay]

@IrishRob17

LFG!!!

[Rjay]

@BxEngine

Chump

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

@BxEngine

Chump

 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

@IrishRob17

LFG!!!

 

[Rjay]

@forkyfork

 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

@IrishRob17

LFG!!!

I'm still in shock, not used to them performing so well in big games but this is the Freeman era and what a job he and staff did! That said, concerned about the mounting injuries but this is incredible. HERE COME THE IRISH!

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I'm still in shock, not used to them performing so well in big games but this is the Freeman era and what a job he and staff did! That said, concerned about the mounting injuries but this is incredible. HERE COME THE IRISH!

They should be slight favorites over Penn St. 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

They should be slight favorites over Penn St. 

1.5pt favorites last I saw. Brilliant game, ND will be a tough opponent. Unfortunately for us Franklin is known to choke in big game situations but here’s his huge chance to break that curse. 

[IrishRob17]

31 minutes ago, Rjay said:

They should be slight favorites over Penn St. 

True but I'm a results guy, I don't care what the spread is. 

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

True but I'm a results guy, I don't care what the spread is. 

Ok:

ND 27

PSU 17

[coastalplainsnowman]

4 hours ago, Nibor said:

If we can’t regulate it I’m all for public shaming. Bring out the tar and feathers.

Fair enough calling out irresponsible claims or hyping events, but who wants to bet that if we look in the archives for this NBC affiliate we'll see that they've done the same thing a zillion times in the past decade, just with a slightly higher standard?  STORM CENTER 7 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED!  WE HAVE FULL TEAM COVERAGE ON THIS IMPENDING 2 INCH WET ROADS STORM.  STAY TUNED!

What the hyperbolic outlets on social media do about megastorms which never materialize, many local affiliates often do with puny nuisance storms as they are happening, which is arguably worse.

[Nibor]

17 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Fair enough calling out irresponsible claims or hyping events, but who wants to bet that if we look in the archives for this NBC affiliate we'll see that they've done the same thing a zillion times in the past decade, just with a slightly higher standard?  STORM CENTER 7 HAS BEEN ACTIVATED!  WE HAVE FULL TEAM COVERAGE ON THIS IMPENDING 2 INCH WET ROADS STORM.  STAY TUNED!

What the hyperbolic outlets on social media do about megastorms which never materialize, many local affiliates often do with puny nuisance storms as they are happening, which is arguably worse.

 

Same thing?

[coastalplainsnowman]

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

 

Same thing?

Old ladies don't see that map.  They do see the WABC/WNBC/News 12/etc reporters standing in the DOT yards beside the salt trucks talking to the drivers, obliged to say "I guess this could be a rough one" when its snaining out, and know they better rush out to get the proverbial bread and milk, even if they doubt what they're hearing, because they know the shelves will be bare soon.

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, Nibor said:

 

Same thing?

A blizzard so severe it could give you a vasectomy 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

A blizzard so severe it could give you a vasectomy 

Why did I waste my money having a doctor do it?!!

[Nibor]

14 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Old ladies don't see that map.  They do see the WABC/WNBC/News 12/etc reporters standing in the DOT yards beside the salt trucks talking to the drivers, obliged to say "I guess this could be a rough one" when its snaining out, and know they better rush out to get the proverbial bread and milk, even if they doubt what they're hearing, because they know the shelves will be bare soon.

Yeah old ladies are gonna be dead in the next decade. I'm worried about the future of media literacy and assholes with no meteorological knowledge taking advantage of an algorithm for financial gain posting about an imaginary blizzard 10 days into the future. At least at one point tv news was legally obligated to report for the public good before it was tossed in the can in 80s. 

[sn0w]

 

[Volcanic Winter]

This is turning into quite a sad story, with more to come if this thing actually erupts. Dangers of a powerful long dormant volcano waking up.

Quote

There are no signs of the activity slowing down. The local newspaper Addis Standard reported that over 30 houses have been destroyed by the recent quakes and hundreds of people have left their homes as precaution and are either camping outside or fleeing to other areas.
The most affected areas include Awash Fentale and Dulecha districts, especially the village of Segento Kebele, where the Kessem Sugar Factory and the Kessem dam are located. The latter, with a capacity of holding 500 million cubic liters of freshwater, is giving worries whether it will withstand the seismic activity, as a structural failure could trigger catastrophic flooding.

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/ethiopia/awash/seismic-crisis-2024/updates.html

More and more convinced this ends in some type of eruptive event as the daily seismic activity is incredible, outputting mag 4-5 quakes daily.

I want to clarify as this linked piece suggests a source claiming the activity may be tectonic in nature (which means essentially not directly from the ascent of eruptable magma), but there was evidence earlier including INSAR data which clearly showed a potential large dike intrusion. There is absolutely no guarantee this does erupt and this source could be correct, regardless it almost doesn't even matter as real harm / damage is being done now just from the seismic activity. Something I'll be watching daily from here on out - volcanoes are fascinating but also incredibly destructive, and can be so even when not actively erupting.

[donsutherland1]

On 12/28/2024 at 6:17 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Increasingly, it appears that credible meteorological organizations and meteorologists are being drowned out by Social Media hype by amateurs and some of their own peers. The amateurs may not necessarily know better, but one would expect that the professionals would. But exaggerated posts (snowstorms, SSWs, and severe cold) in recent years hints otherwise.

Last night, the 12/28 0z ECMWF operational model forecast a historic-type Arctic blast. Several professional accounts were among Social Media accounts trumpeting the model verbatim. At least one even specifically referred to "historic cold."

A turn toward colder weather is likely in early January and the second week of January could be much colder than normal. But there is a large distinction between much colder than normal, a significant Arctic blast, and a historic-type Arctic blast.

If one examines the bigger picture one finds:

1. Historic-type Arctic blasts have become less common as the Arctic region has warmed and the Northern Hemisphere's deep cold pool has shrunk. The last true historic large-scale Arctic blast occurred in February 11-20, 2021.

2. The climate has warmed, particularly since 2000.

The ongoing warming is a big reason why the Contiguous U.S. has not seen a winter where excessively cold minimum temperatures have exceeded areal coverage of excessively warm minimum temperatures (winter average) since 2013-2014:

Here are the Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies 2 weeks and 1 week before the start of the February 2021 historic Arctic outbreak:

2 weeks:

1 week:

3 days:

And here's the latest map (December 26, 2024):

Key Difference: There was much more very cold air, both on our side of the Northern Hemisphere and the Northern Hemisphere overall prior to the February 2021 Arctic outbreak.

It is unclear whether those accounts have much understanding of how to use ensembles, even as they almost certainly have awareness of ensembles. IMO, those accounts would do well to visit and study WPC's outstanding ensemble training page:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/

The WPC guide notes of operational model runs: "...in a chaotic system like an atmospheric model, non linear errors (although inconsequential in short lead times) will grow - sometimes rapidly.  Eventually these growing errors cause the model forecast ouput to eventually become useless." That lesson is ignored or not well-understood by the accounts hyping historic cold outbreaks some 10 days or more in the future.

If one looks at the latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, one sees significant, but not historic cold is currently forecast:

The very cold ECMWF weekly outlook for January 6-13:

That's very cold. But it doesn't match the coldest shots since 2000 in Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

All said, the recent ECMWF weeklies, including today's run, is plenty cold to communicate the message that it will likely turn significantly colder in the long-range with the potential of a severe shot of cold. Exaggeration and hype are not needed. There is no need to invoke historic Arctic outbreaks that still have very little support (occasional runs on a single model, no run-to-run continuity, no widespread ensemble or other model support), especially at timeframes when operational model skill scores are low.

Speaking of very little support, the 12/28 12z ECMWF still contains an Arctic outbreak during the second week of January, but it is nowhere near as frigid as the 12/28 0z run featured and pushed on Social Media by multiple accounts.
And for the Social Media accounts that hyped the 0z run, no mention whatsoever about the 12z run?

What is likely?

January 10-20, will likely see the temperature fall well into the teens and perhaps even single digits in New York City and Philadelphia. Boston will likely see single digits with perhaps a chance at a subzero low. Detroit , Chicago, and Indianapolis could see one or more subzero lows. None of those cities will likely see historic-type cold e.g., widespread subzero lows from Washington, DC to Boston and double-digit subzero lows in Chicago, Indianapolis, and Detroit. Some of those cities might see their coldest readings of the 2020s, but most very likely won't exceed their coldest readings since 2000. Most or all of those cities likely won't experience their coldest 7-day period since 2000. Historic-type low temperatures and 7-day mean temperatures are unlikely.

And if the cold fails to measure up to the coldest Arctic outbreaks since 2000, one can expect the Social Media accounts to still claim that they were "correct" in their assessment. However, in fact, their assessment would be wrong, as the cold wasn't even three-decade cold, much less historic-type cold. The general public will then come away with yet another example that skews their perceptions of the meteorology profession, lumping in outstanding public and private sector meteorologists with those who seek Social Media clicks and engagement.

 

A quick follow-up:

Truly bitter cold air remains in very limited supply in the Northern Hemisphere:

Based on the latest data, even as the cold will be sustained, it likely won't be notable in many places. My own thinking from six days ago will be too cold. NYC and Philadelphia might see some teens, but single digits are unlikely. There's a chance that Boston may not even see teens courtesy of the powerful block suppressing the coldest air to the South. Detroit, Chicago, and Indianapolis could still see a subzero low, but for Detroit that is less likely than for Chicago or Indianapolis.

Moreover, most of the below cities likely will not match or exceed their coldest low temperatures or coldest 7-day period since 2020.

All this does not mean that the ECMWF weekly guidance will be incorrect. It's becoming clearer, that the guidance's cold anomaly is more the result of persistence of cold than severity of cold.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, that is true. But it's still worth trying to identify those who routinely make irresponsibly extreme calls if the public is to be truly weather-aware.

I actually blame the people who run the models, why dont they stop running models after 7 days?