Winter Banter 24-25

[Rjay]

Will it snow along the coastal plain this season?

[IrishRob17]

Just now, Rjay said:

Will it snow along the coastal plain this season?

Negative Ghost Rider. 

[rclab]

38 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Will it snow along the coastal plain this season?

 

36 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Negative Ghost Rider. 

The AccuWeather long range has Hope. As always …..

 

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Will it snow along the coastal plain this season?

It already did lol

[NorthShoreWx]

I'm already missing summer 2023

[Rjay]

31 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

It already did lol

2" for me lol 

[dmillz25]

29 minutes ago, Rjay said:

2" for me lol 

3.3” here lmao 

[donsutherland1]

Increasingly, it appears that credible meteorological organizations and meteorologists are being drowned out by Social Media hype by amateurs and some of their own peers. The amateurs may not necessarily know better, but one would expect that the professionals would. But exaggerated posts (snowstorms, SSWs, and severe cold) in recent years hints otherwise.

Last night, the 12/28 0z ECMWF operational model forecast a historic-type Arctic blast. Several professional accounts were among Social Media accounts trumpeting the model verbatim. At least one even specifically referred to "historic cold."

A turn toward colder weather is likely in early January and the second week of January could be much colder than normal. But there is a large distinction between much colder than normal, a significant Arctic blast, and a historic-type Arctic blast.

If one examines the bigger picture one finds:

1. Historic-type Arctic blasts have become less common as the Arctic region has warmed and the Northern Hemisphere's deep cold pool has shrunk. The last true historic large-scale Arctic blast occurred in February 11-20, 2021.

2. The climate has warmed, particularly since 2000.

The ongoing warming is a big reason why the Contiguous U.S. has not seen a winter where excessively cold minimum temperatures have exceeded areal coverage of excessively warm minimum temperatures (winter average) since 2013-2014:

Here are the Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies 2 weeks and 1 week before the start of the February 2021 historic Arctic outbreak:

2 weeks:

1 week:

3 days:

And here's the latest map (December 26, 2024):

Key Difference: There was much more very cold air, both on our side of the Northern Hemisphere and the Northern Hemisphere overall prior to the February 2021 Arctic outbreak.

It is unclear whether those accounts have much understanding of how to use ensembles, even as they almost certainly have awareness of ensembles. IMO, those accounts would do well to visit and study WPC's outstanding ensemble training page:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/

The WPC guide notes of operational model runs: "...in a chaotic system like an atmospheric model, non linear errors (although inconsequential in short lead times) will grow - sometimes rapidly.  Eventually these growing errors cause the model forecast ouput to eventually become useless." That lesson is ignored or not well-understood by the accounts hyping historic cold outbreaks some 10 days or more in the future.

If one looks at the latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, one sees significant, but not historic cold is currently forecast:

The very cold ECMWF weekly outlook for January 6-13:

That's very cold. But it doesn't match the coldest shots since 2000 in Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

All said, the recent ECMWF weeklies, including today's run, is plenty cold to communicate the message that it will likely turn significantly colder in the long-range with the potential of a severe shot of cold. Exaggeration and hype are not needed. There is no need to invoke historic Arctic outbreaks that still have very little support (occasional runs on a single model, no run-to-run continuity, no widespread ensemble or other model support), especially at timeframes when operational model skill scores are low.

Speaking of very little support, the 12/28 12z ECMWF still contains an Arctic outbreak during the second week of January, but it is nowhere near as frigid as the 12/28 0z run featured and pushed on Social Media by multiple accounts.

And for the Social Media accounts that hyped the 0z run, no mention whatsoever about the 12z run?

What is likely?

January 10-20, will likely see the temperature fall well into the teens and perhaps even single digits in New York City and Philadelphia. Boston will likely see single digits with perhaps a chance at a subzero low. Detroit , Chicago, and Indianapolis could see one or more subzero lows. None of those cities will likely see historic-type cold e.g., widespread subzero lows from Washington, DC to Boston and double-digit subzero lows in Chicago, Indianapolis, and Detroit. Some of those cities might see their coldest readings of the 2020s, but most very likely won't exceed their coldest readings since 2000. Most or all of those cities likely won't experience their coldest 7-day period since 2000. Historic-type low temperatures and 7-day mean temperatures are unlikely.

And if the cold fails to measure up to the coldest Arctic outbreaks since 2000, one can expect the Social Media accounts to still claim that they were "correct" in their assessment. However, in fact, their assessment would be wrong, as the cold wasn't even three-decade cold, much less historic-type cold. The general public will then come away with yet another example that skews their perceptions of the meteorology profession, lumping in outstanding public and private sector meteorologists with those who seek Social Media clicks and engagement.

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

2" for me lol 

3.8 here

[Snowlover11]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Will it snow along the coastal plain this season?

nope anthony will say brooklyn sucks about 500 times.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Probably no snow here. Suppressed storms. Cold. Dry. Frozen bays. Yay. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Will it snow along the coastal plain this season?

It already did. We had a white Xmas on parts of LI

[NorthShoreWx]

Congrats Florida

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024122906&fh=384

[NEG NAO]

Probably is a good idea IMO for Walt to start a thread titled "Winter Storms Potential January 6 - 12" so the January thread doesn't reach 50 + pages before January 1st.

[North and West]

Congrats Florida
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024122906&fh=384

LOCK IT IN


.

[Nibor]

I can’t believe someone took the time to make this. 

[North and West]

I can’t believe someone took the time to make this. 

You do nice work


.

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

You do nice work


.

I wish I was this talented. 

[Dark Star]

On 12/28/2024 at 6:17 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Increasingly, it appears that credible meteorological organizations and meteorologists are being drowned out by Social Media hype by amateurs and some of their own peers. The amateurs may not necessarily know better, but one would expect that the professionals would. But exaggerated posts (snowstorms, SSWs, and severe cold) in recent years hints otherwise.

Last night, the 12/28 0z ECMWF operational model forecast a historic-type Arctic blast. Several professional accounts were among Social Media accounts trumpeting the model verbatim. At least one even specifically referred to "historic cold."

A turn toward colder weather is likely in early January and the second week of January could be much colder than normal. But there is a large distinction between much colder than normal, a significant Arctic blast, and a historic-type Arctic blast.

If one examines the bigger picture one finds:

1. Historic-type Arctic blasts have become less common as the Arctic region has warmed and the Northern Hemisphere's deep cold pool has shrunk. The last true historic large-scale Arctic blast occurred in February 11-20, 2021.

2. The climate has warmed, particularly since 2000.

The ongoing warming is a big reason why the Contiguous U.S. has not seen a winter where excessively cold minimum temperatures have exceeded areal coverage of excessively warm minimum temperatures (winter average) since 2013-2014:

Here are the Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies 2 weeks and 1 week before the start of the February 2021 historic Arctic outbreak:

2 weeks:

1 week:

3 days:

And here's the latest map (December 26, 2024):

Key Difference: There was much more very cold air, both on our side of the Northern Hemisphere and the Northern Hemisphere overall prior to the February 2021 Arctic outbreak.

It is unclear whether those accounts have much understanding of how to use ensembles, even as they almost certainly have awareness of ensembles. IMO, those accounts would do well to visit and study WPC's outstanding ensemble training page:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/

The WPC guide notes of operational model runs: "...in a chaotic system like an atmospheric model, non linear errors (although inconsequential in short lead times) will grow - sometimes rapidly.  Eventually these growing errors cause the model forecast ouput to eventually become useless." That lesson is ignored or not well-understood by the accounts hyping historic cold outbreaks some 10 days or more in the future.

If one looks at the latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, one sees significant, but not historic cold is currently forecast:

The very cold ECMWF weekly outlook for January 6-13:

That's very cold. But it doesn't match the coldest shots since 2000 in Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

All said, the recent ECMWF weeklies, including today's run, is plenty cold to communicate the message that it will likely turn significantly colder in the long-range with the potential of a severe shot of cold. Exaggeration and hype are not needed. There is no need to invoke historic Arctic outbreaks that still have very little support (occasional runs on a single model, no run-to-run continuity, no widespread ensemble or other model support), especially at timeframes when operational model skill scores are low.

Speaking of very little support, the 12/28 12z ECMWF still contains an Arctic outbreak during the second week of January, but it is nowhere near as frigid as the 12/28 0z run featured and pushed on Social Media by multiple accounts.
And for the Social Media accounts that hyped the 0z run, no mention whatsoever about the 12z run?

What is likely?

January 10-20, will likely see the temperature fall well into the teens and perhaps even single digits in New York City and Philadelphia. Boston will likely see single digits with perhaps a chance at a subzero low. Detroit , Chicago, and Indianapolis could see one or more subzero lows. None of those cities will likely see historic-type cold e.g., widespread subzero lows from Washington, DC to Boston and double-digit subzero lows in Chicago, Indianapolis, and Detroit. Some of those cities might see their coldest readings of the 2020s, but most very likely won't exceed their coldest readings since 2000. Most or all of those cities likely won't experience their coldest 7-day period since 2000. Historic-type low temperatures and 7-day mean temperatures are unlikely.

And if the cold fails to measure up to the coldest Arctic outbreaks since 2000, one can expect the Social Media accounts to still claim that they were "correct" in their assessment. However, in fact, their assessment would be wrong, as the cold wasn't even three-decade cold, much less historic-type cold. The general public will then come away with yet another example that skews their perceptions of the meteorology profession, lumping in outstanding public and private sector meteorologists with those who seek Social Media clicks and engagement.

 

Thanks, I think the December 26, 2024 anomaly map just about says it all...

[Rjay]

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I just watched that on YouTube

 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I just watched that on YouTube

 

Did you Buckle up?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Did you Buckle up?

It was amusing 

[etudiant]

Was there not a fable about 'The boy who cried wolf'?

It seems that the pressure to get clicks is overriding any concerns about credibility longer term or sense of professional responsibility. 

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, Rjay said:

There are certain hobbyists and even a few professional mets not just hyping, but actually guaranteeing historic cold and historic snows for the east coast in January, saying it’s definitely going to happen. “Buckle up!!” over and over again. It’s out of control right now. If it doesn’t work out for whatever reason, they are going to permanently damage their reputation and credibility for years to come. They will be regarded as The Boy Who Cried Wolf. People who follow wxtwitter don’t forget and they don’t forgive. If I was a pro met, it would not be a game I’d play with my reputation and credibility…..

[North and West]

Your YouTube channel is nice and down-to-earth.


.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

There are certain hobbyists and even a few professional mets not just hyping, but actually guaranteeing historic cold and historic snows for the east coast in January, saying it’s definitely going to happen. “Buckle up!!” over and over again. It’s out of control right now. If it doesn’t work out for whatever reason, they are going to permanently damage their reputation and credibility for years to come. They will be regarded as The Boy Who Cried Wolf. People who follow wxtwitter don’t forget and they don’t forgive. If I was a pro met, it would not be a game I’d play with my reputation and credibility…..

JB (and others) showed them the way. It's like some people truly believe the adage that there's no such thing as bad publicity. Until the algorithms are smart enough they'll keep boosting this shit because it gets more hits and reactions and the BS will get deeper and deeper.

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

JB (and others) showed them the way. It's like some people truly believe the adage that there's no such thing as bad publicity. Until the algorithms are smart enough they'll keep boosting this shit because it gets more hits and reactions and the BS will get deeper and deeper.

438,000 views and counting

[WestBabylonWeather]

Social media ruining weather huh? Average normie has no idea how bad forecasts are at that range 

[Big Jims Videos]

It's the hypocrisy of the social media weather fan pages that crack me up. They're all "don't post hour 300 maps bc so much can change" and then they post it and say *this is the image circulating around Facebook etc. I'm posting it to give you the truth about it." Yet they're posting it for clicks and are jealous of the pages that do it first.