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2025 forecast contests -- enter for May 2025 (deadline 06z May 1)


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Above (meaning previously on page two) see scoring for March 2025 and eventually annual scoring update. 

Further back in Feb portion of thread, snowfall contest details have been updated to March 31st. 

Below, post your April forecasts ... anyone new thinking of entering, see original post for details (Jan contest). 

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Forecasts for April 2025

 

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA

StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.7 _+1.8 _+1.6 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _+1.6 __+2.1 _+2.7 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+0.5 _+1.5 _+0.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________________+1.2 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+1.9 _+1.8 __+0.9 _+1.8 _+0.1

so_whats_happening ______________+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+1.1 _ +1.2 __+0.8 _+2.1 _+0.4

Tom _______________________________ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +1.3 __+0.7 _ +1.1 _+1.3 __+0.9 _+1.6 _+0.7

RJay _______________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0

___ Consensus ___________________+0.4 _+0.4_+0.7 __-0.1 _+1.4 _+1.4 __+0.9 _+1.7 _+0.5

___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0

DonSutherland1 ___________________ -0.2 _-0.2 _+0.3 __-0.4 _+1.3 _+1.3 __+0.7 _+1.0 _+0.4

Roger Smith _______________________ -0.3 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -0.5 _+2.0 _+2.5 __-1.0 _+2.7 _ 0.0

RodneyS __________________________ -0.3 _-0.8 _-0.1 __ -2.4 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 __-1.3 _-0.6 _+0.8

wxallannj___________________________-0.5 _-0.7 _-0.5 __ -0.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.2 _+2.1 _+1.8

BKViking ___________________________-0.8 _-0.2 _-0.4 __ -0.5 _+0.2 _+1.4 __+1.2 _+1.5 _+0.5

wxdude64 _________________________ -1.3 _ -1.8 _ -1.6 __ -0.7 _+1.6 _+1.1 ___+1.7 _+1.9 _+0.4

______

Persistence (Mar 2025) _____________+6.7 _+4.1 _+4.0 __+5.4 _+3.6 _+4.6 __+4.2 _+1.5 __0.0

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Anomalies to mid-April and projections ...

__________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ (anom Apr 1-15) _____+1.1 __ -2.0 _ -1.3 ___ -1.6 _ +3.3 _ +3.1 __ +1.2 _ +3.3 _ +1.0

___ (anom Apr 1-25) ____ +3.3 __+1.0 _+1.3 ___+0.8 _ +4.2 _+4.4 __+1.1 _ +2.2 _ +1.3

___ (p anom Apr 1-30) __+3.5 __+1.5 __+1.5 ___+1.5 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 __+1.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 

 

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_ Preliminary scoring for April 2025 _

 

based on projected anomalies in previous post, most recent updates

FORECASTER ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTALS

StormchaserChuck _______________ 64 _ 94 _ 98 __ 256 __ 94 _ 62 _ 52 __ 208 _ 464 __88 96 _ 90 __ 274 ____ 738

Scotty Lightning __________________ 60 _ 90 _ 90 __ 240 __ 80 _ 50 _ 50 __ 180 _ 420 __ 80 _ 80 _ 80 __ 240 ____ 660

hudsonvalley21 ___________________ 54 _ 96 _100__ 250 __ 74 _ 58 _ 56 __ 188 _ 438 __ 88 _ 86 _ 72 __ 246 ____ 684

so_whats_happening _____________ 54 _ 92 _ 86 __ 232 __ 88 _ 42 _ 44 __ 174 _ 406 __ 86 _ 92 _ 78 __ 256 ____ 662

Tom _______________________________52 _ 96 _ 96 __ 244 ___84 _ 42 _ 46 __ 172 _ 416 ___88 _ 82 _ 84 __ 254 ____ 670

RJay ______________________________ 50 _ 90 _ 90 __ 230 __ 90 _ 60 _ 70 __ 220 _ 450 __ 90 _ 80 _ 90 __ 260 ____ 710

___ Consensus ___________________38 _ 78 _ 84 __200 __ 68 _ 48 _ 48 __164 _ 364 __88_ 84 _ 80__ 252 ___ 616

___ Normal _________________________30 _ 70 _ 70 __ 170 __ 70 _ 20 _ 20 __ 110 __ 280 __ 70 _ 50 _ 70 __ 190 ____ 470

DonSutherland1 ___________________ 26 _ 66 _ 76 __ 168 __ 62 _ 46 _ 46 __ 154 __ 322 __ 84 _ 70 _ 78 __ 232 ____ 554

Roger Smith _______________________ 24 _ 60 _ 56 __ 140 __ 60 _ 60 _ 70 __ 190 _ 330 __ 50 _ 96 _ 7__ 216 ____ 546

RodneyS __________________________ 24 _ 54 _ 68 __ 146 __ 22 _ 42 _ 32 __ 096 __ 242 __ 44 _ 38 __ 86 __ 168 ____ 410

wxallannj___________________________20 _ 56 _ 60 __ 136 __ 62 _ 30 _ 30 __ 122 __ 258 __ 74 _ 92 _ 94 __ 260 ____518

BKViking __________________________ 14 _ 66 _ 62 __ 142 __ 60 _ 24 _ 48 __ 132 __ 274 __ 94 _ 80 _ 80 __ 254 ____ 528

wxdude64 _________________________04 _ 34 _ 38 __ 076 __ 56 _ 52 _ 42 ___ 150 __ 226 __ 96 _ 88 _ 78 __ 262 ____ 488

______

Persistence (Mar 2025) _____________36 _ 48 _ 50 __ 134 __ 22 _ 92 _ 88 __ 202 _ 336 __ 46 _ 80 _ 70 __ 196 ____ 532

 

note: scoring range is generally quite small and so I have not indicated any best forecasts, this could all be off by 50-100 total points quite easily and the order of finish could easily be scrambled compared to this presentation. 

===================

Extreme forecast report

DCA, ORD, ATL, IAH, PHX would be wins for highest forecasts, based on preliminary estimates ...

StormchaserChuck would take DCA, NYC and ATL and a share of PHX (with Roger Smith) for 4.5 net. RJay (net 0.5) and Roger Smith (net 1.0) share IAH.

NYC _ at +1.5 to +1.7, hudsonvalley21 takes a win and StormchaserChuck a loss -- win for StormchaserChuck at +1.8 or above.

BOS _ at +1.5, hudsonvalley21 takes a win and StormchaserChuck a loss -- win for StormchaserChuck at +1.6 or above.

Persistence does not participate but would have won ATL and PHX by a small margin. 

 

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=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: ===

... April scoring to be adjusted 

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IA_ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA __ west __TOTALS

___ Consensus _______ 239 _288 _286 __813 __272 _302 _240__814 _ 1627 _ 211 _234 _266 __ 711 ___2338

so_whats_happening __269 _308 _250 __ 827 __264 _308 _241 __813 _ 1640 __200 _186 _286 __ 672 ___2312

hudsonvalley21 _______ 223 _286 _314 __ 823 __218 _302 _251 __771 __1594 __238 _216 _256 __ 710 ___2304

RJay __________________ 249 _342 _330 __921 __ 298 _308 _ 231 __ 837 _ 1758 __ 159 _154 _218 __ 531 ___ 2289

Tom ___________________241 _282 _290 __ 813 __ 280 _232 _258 __770 _ 1583 __266 _222 _204 __ 692 ___2275

wxallannj ______________217 _260 _278 __ 755 __300 _228 _222 __750 _1505 _236 _240 _273 __ 749 ___2254

BKViking ______________ 181 _260 _244 __ 685 __284 _292 _235 __811 1496 __257 _206 _260 __ 723 ___2219

StormchaserChuck ____ 241 _254 _246 __ 741 __ 196 _292 _ 185 __ 673 __ 1414 __225 _230 _217 __672___2086

DonSutherland1 _______ 171 _236 _250 __ 657 __232 _264 _208 __ 704 _ 1361 __ 217 _208 _282 __ 707 ___2068

Scotty Lightning _______264 _272 _230 __ 766 __205 _204 _ 230 __ 639 _ 1405 __171 _258 _256 __ 685 ___2090

wxdude64 _____________184 _228 _226 __ 638 __ 216_ 256 _206 __ 678 _ 1316 __231 _242 _246 __719___ 2035

Roger Smith ___________ 204 _250 _242 __ 696 __ 240 _244 _222 __706 _ 1402 __110 _190 _257 __557 ____1959

RodneyS ______________ 212 _220 _248 __ 680 __ 164 _204 _194 __ 562 _ 1242 __149 _226 _324 __699 ___ 1941

 

___ Normal ______________144 _222 _246 __ 612 __ 186 _084 _095 ___365 __ 977 __ 194 _220 _256__ 670 ___ 1647

maxim (2/4) ____________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 __ 96_ 120 _ 82 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _135 __ 317 ____ 1111 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2222

Persistence ______________90 _184 _236 __ 510 ___120 _182 _144 __ 446 _ 956 __ 58 _ 88 _196 __ 342 ____1298

____________________________

 

_____

 

__ Best scores __

 

^ incl tied for best score 

* incl 3 tied for best score

________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS

 

___ Consensus ________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0  __ 0 __ 1  ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____ 0

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 1* __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 *___ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom _____________________ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar

wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 

StormchaserChuck ______ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 2___ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*__1 ___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr

Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Scotty Lightning _________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan

Roger Smit_____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb

RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 1 _____0

___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

==============================

Extreme forecasts 

So far, 22 of 36 ... 14 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 7-0

 

Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied)

Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 2**0 _ 5-2 ___ 4.0 - 2.0

Stormchaser Chuck _______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 __ 4-3 ____ 3.5 - 3.0

Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0

maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0

Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ____2.5 - 0.0

so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0

wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0

Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0

RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 1*-0 __ 1-0 ___ 0.5-0.0

=========================================================

 
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  • Roger Smith changed the title to 2025 forecast contests -- enter for May 2025 (deadline 06z May 1)

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