2025 forecast contests -- enter for May 2025 (deadline 06z May 1)

[Roger Smith]

Above (meaning previously on page two) see scoring for March 2025 and eventually annual scoring update. 

Further back in Feb portion of thread, snowfall contest details have been updated to March 31st. 

Below, post your April forecasts ... anyone new thinking of entering, see original post for details (Jan contest). 

[Scotty Lightning]

April

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5        1.0       1.0       0.5       1.5     1.5        0.5     1.5       0.5 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

April

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

  1.2      1.7       1.5       0.2      1.9      1.8        0.9      1.8      0.1

[wxallannj]

April

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

  -0.5    -0.7   -0.5    -0.4      0.5      0.5        0.2      2.1      1.8 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.2    -0.2    0.3       -0.4    1.3      1.3         0.7      1.0      0.4

[Tom]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.1    +1.3    +1.3       +0.7    +1.1     +1.3     +0.9   +1.6     +0.7

[Rjay]

DCA: +1.0

 

NYC: +1.0

 

BOS: +1.0

 

ORD: +1.0

 

ATL: +2.0

 

IAH: +2.5

 

DEN: +2.0

 

PHX: +1.5

 

SEA: +2.0

[wxdude64]

April

DCA:  -1.3

NYC:  -1.8

BOS:  -1.6

ORD:  -0.7

ATL:  +1.6

IAH:  +1.1

DEN:  +1.7

PHX:  +1.9

SEA:  +0.4

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.3    -0.8    -0.1       -2.4     1.1      0.6       -1.3     -0.6     0.8

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Thanks for doing it Roger. 

April

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.7        1.8       1.6       1.2       2.1     1.6        2.1       2.7       1.0

[Roger Smith]

-0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.7 __ -0.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ -1.0 _ +2.7 __ 0.0

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.2     +1.1      +.8       +.9     +1.1     +1.2     +.8     +2.1     +.4

 

Sorry

[bkviking]

DCA:  -0.8

NYC:  -0.2

BOS:  -0.4

ORD:  -0.5

ATL:  +0.2

IAH:  +1.4

DEN:  +1.2

PHX:  +1.5

SEA:  +0.5

[Roger Smith]

Forecasts for April 2025

 

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA

StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.7 _+1.8 _+1.6 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _+1.6 __+2.1 _+2.7 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+0.5 _+1.5 _+0.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________________+1.2 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+1.9 _+1.8 __+0.9 _+1.8 _+0.1

so_whats_happening ______________+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+1.1 _ +1.2 __+0.8 _+2.1 _+0.4

Tom _______________________________ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +1.3 __+0.7 _ +1.1 _+1.3 __+0.9 _+1.6 _+0.7

RJay _______________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0

___ Consensus ___________________+0.4 _+0.4_+0.7 __-0.1 _+1.4 _+1.4 __+0.9 _+1.7 _+0.5

___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0

DonSutherland1 ___________________ -0.2 _-0.2 _+0.3 __-0.4 _+1.3 _+1.3 __+0.7 _+1.0 _+0.4

Roger Smith _______________________ -0.3 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -0.5 _+2.0 _+2.5 __-1.0 _+2.7 _ 0.0

RodneyS __________________________ -0.3 _-0.8 _-0.1 __ -2.4 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 __-1.3 _-0.6 _+0.8

wxallannj___________________________-0.5 _-0.7 _-0.5 __ -0.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.2 _+2.1 _+1.8

BKViking ___________________________-0.8 _-0.2 _-0.4 __ -0.5 _+0.2 _+1.4 __+1.2 _+1.5 _+0.5

wxdude64 _________________________ -1.3 _ -1.8 _ -1.6 __ -0.7 _+1.6 _+1.1 ___+1.7 _+1.9 _+0.4

______

Persistence (Mar 2025) _____________+6.7 _+4.1 _+4.0 __+5.4 _+3.6 _+4.6 __+4.2 _+1.5 __0.0

 

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies to mid-April and projections ...

__________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ (anom Apr 1-15) _____+1.1 __ -2.0 _ -1.3 ___ -1.6 _ +3.3 _ +3.1 __ +1.2 _ +3.3 _ +1.0

___ (p anom Apr 1-30) __+2.5 __-0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 __ +0.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.5 

 

[Roger Smith]

_ Preliminary scoring for April 2025 _

 

based on projected anomalies in previous post, most recent updates

FORECASTER ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTALS

StormchaserChuck _______________ 84 _ 54 _ 68 __ 206 __ 76 _ 82 _ 62 __ 220 _ 426 __ 68 _ 84 _ 90 __ 242 ____ 668

Scotty Lightning __________________ 80 _ 70 _ 80 __ 230 __ 90 _ 70 _ 60 __ 220 _ 450 __100 _ 60 _100 __ 260 ____ 710

hudsonvalley21 ___________________ 74 _ 56 _ 70 __ 200 __ 96 _ 78 _ 66 __ 240 _ 440 __ 92 _ 66 _ 92 __ 250 ____ 690

so_whats_happening _____________ 74 _ 68 _ 84 __ 226 __ 82 _ 62 _ 54 __ 198 _ 424 __ 94 _ 72 _ 98 __ 264 ____ 688

Tom _______________________________72 _ 64 _ 74 __ 210 ___86 _ 62 _ 56 __ 204 _ 414 ___92 _ 62 _ 96 __ 250 ____ 664

RJay ______________________________ 70 _ 70 _ 80 __ 220 __ 80 _ 80 _ 80 __ 240 _ 460 __ 70 _ 60 _ 70 __ 200 ____ 660

___ Consensus ___________________58 _ 82 _ 86 __226 __ 98 _ 68 _ 58 __224 _ 450 __92_ 64 _100__ 256 ___ 706

___ Normal _________________________50 _ 90 _100 __ 240 __100 _ 40 _ 30 __ 170 __ 410 __ 90 _ 30 _ 90 __ 210 ____ 620

DonSutherland1 ___________________ 46 _ 94 _ 94 __ 234 __ 92 _ 66 _ 56 __ 214 __ 448 __ 96 _ 50 _ 98 __ 244 ____ 692

Roger Smith _______________________ 44 _100 _ 86 __ 230 __ 90 _ 80 _ 80 __ 250 _ 480 __ 70 _ 84 _ 90 __ 244 ____ 724

RodneyS __________________________ 44 _ 94 _ 98 __ 236 __ 52 _ 62 _ 42 __ 156 __ 392 __ 64 _ 18 __ 94 __ 176 ____ 568

wxallannj___________________________40 _ 96 _ 90 __ 226 __ 92 _ 50 _ 40 __ 182 __ 408 __ 94 _ 72 _ 74 __ 240 ____648

BKViking __________________________ 34 _ 94 _ 92 __ 220 __ 90 _ 44 _ 58 __ 192 __ 412 __ 86 _ 60 _100 __ 246 ____ 658

wxdude64 _________________________24 _ 74 _ 68 __ 166 __ 86 _ 72 _ 52 ___ 210 __ 376 __ 76 _ 68 _ 98 __ 242 ____ 618

______

Persistence (Mar 2025) _____________16 _ 08 _ 20 __ 044 __ 00 _ 88 _ 78 __ 166 _ 210 __ 18 _ 86 _ 80 __ 184 ____ 394

 

note: scoring range is generally quite small and so I have not indicated any best forecasts, this could all be off by 50-100 total points quite easily and the order of finish could easily be scrambled compared to this presentation. 

===================

Extreme forecast report

DCA, ATL, IAH, PHX would be wins for highest forecasts, based on preliminary estimates ...

StormchaserChuck would take DCA and ATL and a share of PHX (with Roger Smith) for 2.5 net. RJay (net 0.5) and Roger Smith (net 1.0) share IAH.

Persistence does not participate but would have won ATL and PHX by a small margin. 

There is a slight chance of NYC or ORD recording a win for either coldest or second coldest forecasts but at this point not by the estimates. 

[Roger Smith]

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: ===

... April scoring to be adjusted 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA __ west __TOTALS

___ Consensus ________ 259 _292 _288 __839 __302 _322 _250__874 _ 1713 _ 215 _214 _286 __ 715 ___2428

wxallannj _______________237 _300 _308 __ 845 __330 _248 _232 __810 _1655 _256 _220 _253 __ 729 ___2384

BKViking _______________ 201 _288 _274 __ 763 __314 _312 _245 __ 871 _ 1634 __249 _186 _280 __ 715 ___2349

so_whats_happening ___289 _284 _248 __ 821 __258 _328 _251 __837 _ 1658 __208 _166 _306 __ 680 ___2338

hudsonvalley21 ________ 243 _246 _284 __ 773 __240 _322 _261 __823 __1596 __242 _196 _276 __ 714 ___2310

Tom ____________________261 _250 _268 __ 779 __ 282 _252 _268 __802 _ 1581 __270 _202 _216 __ 688 ___2269

RJay ___________________ 269 _322 _320 __911 __ 288 _328 _ 241 __ 857 _ 1768 __ 139 _134 _198 __ 471 ___ 2239

DonSutherland1 ________ 191 _264 _268 __ 723 __262 _284 _218 __ 764 _ 1487 __ 229 _188 _302 __ 719 ___2206

wxdude64 ______________204 _268 _256 __ 728 __ 246_ 276 _216 __ 738 _ 1466 __211 _222 _266 __699___ 2165

Scotty Lightning ________284 _252 _220 __ 756 __215 _224 _ 240 __ 679 _ 1435 __191 _238 _276 __ 705 ___2140

Roger Smith ____________ 224 _290 _272 __ 786 __ 270 _264 _232 __766 _ 1552 __130 _178 _277 __585 ____2137

RodneyS _______________ 232 _260 _278 __ 770 __ 194 _224 _204 __ 622 _ 1392 __169 _206 _332 __707 ___ 2099

StormchaserChuck _____ 261 _214 _216 __ 691 __ 168 _ 312 _ 205 __ 685 __ 1376 __205 _218 _217 __640 ___2016

___ Normal _______________164 _242 _276 __ 682 __ 216 _104 _105 ___425 _ 1107 __ 214 _200 _276__ 690 ___ 1797

maxim (2/4) _____________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 __ 96_ 120 _ 82 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _135 __ 317 ____ 1111 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2222

Persistence ______________ 70 _144 _206 __ 420 ___ 98 _178 _134 __ 410 _ 830 __ 30 _ 94 _206 __ 330 ____1160

____________________________

 

_____

 

__ Best scores __

 

^ incl tied for best score 

* incl 3 tied for best score

________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS

 

___ Consensus ________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1  __ 0 __ 1  ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 0 __ 1*___ 0 _____ 0 

so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____ 0

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Tom _____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar

RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 *___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan

Scotty Lightning _________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0

Roger Smith _____________ 1^ __ 3^__ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__1 __ 2 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb, Apr

RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 1 _____0

StormchaserChuck ______ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*__1*___0 ____ 0

___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0

maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

==============================

Extreme forecasts 

So far, 18 of 36 ... 10 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 3-0

 

Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied)

Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 2**0 _ 5-2 ___ 4.0 - 2.0

Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0

maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 3*-0__ 3-1 ____ 2.5 - 1.0

Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0

so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.5 - 0.0

Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0

wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0

Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0

RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 1*-0 __ 1-0 ___ 0.5-0.0

=========================================================

 

[Roger Smith]

^^ above find scoring for April (to be adjusted at end of April) ...

... below, post May forecasts ...