Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,759
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SolsticeSnow
    Newest Member
    SolsticeSnow
    Joined

2025 forecast contests -- enter for March 2025 (deadline 06z March 1)


 Share

Recommended Posts

January is scored back in the Jan section, generally most of scores are in a narrow range and nobody broke 600 -- and I've decided I won't impose late penalties (would be small anyway) because of the distractions of recent events and it being a weekend etc. Will post a table of Feb forecasts soon. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Table of forecasts for February 2025

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

StormchaserChuck ________+4.0 _ +3.9 _ +3.2 __ +2.8 _ +5.8 _+5.2 __ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -4.7 

DonSutherland1 ___________ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +5.2 _+4.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.5 _ -4.5 

BKViking __________________ +3.1 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 ___ -0.9 _ +3.0 _ +1.2 __ -1.0 _ -0.1 __ -2.2

so_whats_happening ______+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.9 _+4.2 _ +4.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ -3.2

hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.6 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _-0.9

wxallannj __________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ___ -0.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.3 _ +0.7 _ -1.8

___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +0.5 _ +2.6 _+2.0 __+0.8_ +0.7 _ -2.4

wxdude64 _________________ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ -1.2

RodneyS ___________________+1.3 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 __ +0.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ -4.5

Tom _______________________ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ -1.1

Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

Roger Smit_______________ +0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 ___ -1.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5

RJay ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 ___ +1.2 __0.0 _ -2.5

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __ -3.3 _ -2.5 _ -1.1 _____ -2.6 _ -4.1 _ -4.4 ___ -5.9 _ -1.2 _ -3.7

============================= [] =============================

Warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is also colder than all forecasts at ATL, IAH and equal at DCA.

Normal is also equal to warmest forecast for SEA. (persistence not incl in this analysis)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BU___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___ 49.0_ 6.3__87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0__ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0 ___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.5

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __ 57.4 _ 5.8 _ 91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

 

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

____________________

To date _____ (Feb 22) _______14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___14.8 _26.0__ 76.0 ___ 43.5 __2.3 __63.0 ____281.5

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

IAH was +15.7 for Feb 1-10, dry; 1.60" rain fell on Feb 11, still a +8 dep, so will be close to +14 for Feb 1-11. 

DEN was also warm at first but 11th was very cold, anomaly will be close to zero in a day or two.

Will update snowfall contest totals in a few days as snow will be falling at a few locations again today and tomorrow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anomalies and projections after 15 and 22 days ...

____________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 ___ (anom 1-15) ___________+1.6 _ -1.0 _ -2.1 ___ +0.6 _ +9.6 _ +10.8 __ -0.9 _ +5.9 _ -9.5

 ___ (anom 1-22) ___________-1.0 _ -3.2 _ -3.5 ___ -4.8 _ +3.4 _ +2.8 ___ -5.1 _ +5.3 _ -5.7

16 (p anom 1-28) __________-1.5 _ -3.0 _ -3.5 ___ -3.0 _ +4.0 _ +5.0 ___ -0.5 _ +3.0 _ -6.0

23 (p anom 1-28) __________+0.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.5 __ -3.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 ___ -0.5 _ +4.0 _ -3.5

(Feb 16) _Very cold for next week in eastern and central regions, more variable later. Staying warm in s.w. and cold in n.w. ... will post preliminary scoring for Feb later. DEN will likely fall to -4 but I expect it will recover most or all by Feb 28. 

(Feb 23) _ Rather warm to end Feb in all regions, will adjust projections and preliminary scoring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Preliminary scoring for Feb 2025

based on projected end of month anomalies posted above ... raw scores only for now, max 60 rule will be applied later if needed.

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL 

StormchaserChuck _______ 30 _ 00 _ 00 __030 __ 00 _ 74 _ 86 __160 _190 _ 72 _ 40 _ 76 __ 188 ___ 378

DonSutherland1 ___________ 46 _ 00 _ 00 __046 __ 00 _ 86 _100__186 _232 _ 54 _ 30 _ 80 __ 164 ___ 396

BKViking __________________ 48 _ 14 _ 10 __ 072 __ 58 _ 70 _ 34 __162 _234 _ 90 _ 18 _ 74 ___ 182 ___ 416

so_whats_happening ______ 54 _ 08 _ 02 __064 __ 00 _ 94 _ 94 __188 _252 _ 68 _ 54 _ 94 __ 216 ___ 468

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 58 _ 22 _ 08 __088 __ 00 _ 62 _ 50 __112 _ 200 _ 58 _ 24 _ 48 __ 130 ___ 330

wxallannj __________________ 74 _ 32 _ 34 __ 140 __ 48 _ 46 _ 42 __136 _ 276 _ 98 _ 34 _ 66 __ 198 ___ 474

___ Consensus ____________76 _ 30 _ 26 __132 __ 30 _ 62 _ 50 __ 142 _ 274 _ 74 _ 34 _ 78 __ 186 ___ 460

wxdude64 _________________80 _ 48 _ 46 __174 __ 30 _ 52 _ 32 __ 114 __ 288 _ 76 _ 26 _ 54 __ 156 ___ 444

RodneyS ___________________84 _ 42 _ 34 __ 160 __ 36 _ 60 _ 66 __ 162 _ 322 _ 66 _ 54 _ 80__ 200 ___ 522

Tom ________________________88 _ 30 _ 20 __ 138 __ 06 _ 32 _ 26 __ 064 _ 202 _ 80 _ 34 _ 44 __ 158 ___ 360

Scotty Lightning ___________ 90 _ 40 _ 40 __ 170 __ 30 _ 30 _ 30 __ 090 _ 260 _ 70 _ 40 _ 30 __ 140 ___ 400

Roger Smit________________96 _ 66 _ 60 __ 222 __ 74 _ 30 _ 50 __ 154 _ 376 _ 40 _ 34 _ 80 __ 154 ___ 530

RJay _______________________ 90 _ 60 _ 50 __ 200 __ 40 _ 70 _ 80 __ 190 _ 390 _ 66 _ 20 _ 80 __ 166 ___ 556

___ Normal _________________ 90 _ 60 _ 50 __ 200 __ 40 _ 10 _ 10 __ 060 _ 260 _ 90 _ 20 _ 30 __ 140 ___ 400

Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __24 _ 90 _ 72 __ 186 __ 92 _ 00 _ 00 __ 092 _ 278 _ 00 _ 00 _ 96 __ 096 ___ 374

EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT

DCA now trending towards a win-loss (RS win, RJay and nor al loss). Will not qualify at +0.8.

NYC, BOS, ORD are likely to be wins for coldest forecasts (RSx3)

PHwill likely be wins for warmest forecasts (swh, RodneyS

ATL, IAH , DEN, SEA are not presently qualifying. (ATL, IAH are close)

=========================================================

(forecasts) 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

StormchaserChuck ________+4.0 _ +3.9 _ +3.2 __ +2.8 _ +5.8 _+5.2 __ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -4.7 

DonSutherland1 ___________ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +5.2 _+4.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.5 _ -4.5 

BKViking __________________ +3.1 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 ___ -0.9 _ +3.0 _ +1.2 __ -1.0 _ -0.1 __ -2.2

so_whats_happening ______+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.9 _+4.2 _ +4.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ -3.2

hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.6 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _-0.9

wxallannj __________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ___ -0.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.3 _ +0.7 _ -1.8

___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +0.5 _ +2.6 _+2.0 __+0.8_ +0.7 _ -2.4

wxdude64 _________________ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ -1.2

RodneyS ___________________+1.3 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 __ +0.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ -4.5

Tom _______________________ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ -1.1

Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

Roger Smit_______________ +0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 ___ -1.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5

RJay ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 ___ +1.2 __0.0 _ -2.5

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __ -3.3 _ -2.5 _ -1.1 _____ -2.6 _ -4.1 _ -4.4 ___ -5.9 _ -1.2 _ -3.7

============================= [] =============================

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: ===

 

Feb scores and annual totals will be adjusted

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS

 

RodneyS _____________________ 174 _110 _120 __ 404 __ 100 _134 _86 __ 320 _ 724 __ 99 _118 _140 __ 357____ 1081

wxallannj _____________________ 144 _112 _130 __ 386 __138 _112 _ 92 __ 342 _ 728 __148 _ 82 _ 101 __ 331 ____1061

so_whats_happening _________ 132 _ 96 _ 72 __ 300 __ 78 _174 _149 __ 401701 __ 128 _ 74 _142 __ 344 ____1045

 

___ Consensus ______________ 162 _126 _108 __ 396 __126 _160 _ 82 __ 368 _ 764 _107 _ 66 _108 __ 281 ___ 1045

 

wxdude64 ____________________164 _144 _144 __ 452 __124 _130 _ 70 __ 324 _ 776 __123 _ 60 _ 84 __ 267 ____1043

RJay __________________________166 _150 _132 __ 448 __138 _152 _ 95 __ 385 _ 833 __ 89 _ 20 _ 90 __ 199 ____1032

BKViking _____________________ 134 _110 _ 88 __ 332 __ 154 _168 _ 77 __ 399 731 __123 _ 50 _102 __ 275 ____1006

Roger Smith __________________190 _166 _142 __ 498 __ 156 _128 _ 52 __ 336 _ 834 __40 _ 34 _ 95 __ 169 ____1003

DonSutherland1 ______________ 112 _100 _ 98 __ 310 ___ 88 _158 _132 __ 378 _ 688 __ 89 _ 42 _108 __ 239 ____ 927

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 130 _106 _100 __ 336 __ 70 _ 136 _ 75 __ 281 __ 617 __118 _ 62 _ 98 __ 278 _____895

Scotty Lightning _____________ 184 _120 _ 82 __ 386 __ 92 _ 88 _ 90 ___ 270 _ 656 __ 85 _ 66 _ 78 __ 229 ____ 885

___ Normal ____________________124 _110 _128 __ 362 __ 88 _ 28 __25 __ 141 ___ 503 __128 _ 96 _ 88 __ 312 ____ 815

Tom __________________________ 140 _ 90 _ 84 __ 314 __ 76 _ 96 _ 74 __ 246 __ 560 __120 _ 34 _ 52 __ 206 ____766

StormchaserChuck ___________ 90 _ 62 _ 50 __ 202 __ 12 _ 156 _101 __ 269 __ 471 ___ 77 _ 40 _ 79 __ 196 ____ 667

maxim (1/2) ___________________ 84 _ 80 _ 98 __ 262 __ 48 _ 58 _ 00 __ 106 __ 368 __ 10 _ 06 _ 55 __ 071 ____ 439

- - - -

Persistence ___________________ 54 _158 _158 __ 370 __ 110 _ 00 _ 00 __ 110 _ 480 __ 00 _ 00 _ 96 __ 096 ____ 576

____________________________

 

__ Best scores __

 

^ incl tied for best score 

____________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS

 

RodneyS ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

wxallannj ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

so_whats_happening _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

___ Consensus _____________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

wxdude64 __________________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan

RJay ________________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 __ 1 ____ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Feb

BKViking ____________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 ____ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 

Roger Smit________________ 2 __ 2^__ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Don Sutherland 1 ___________ 0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Scotty Lightning ____________ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

___ Normal __________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Tom ________________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

StormchaserChuck _________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

maxim ______________________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

==============================

Extreme forecasts 

So far, 10 of 18 ... 2 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4

 

Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb ___ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied)

Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 4-0 ___ 4-0 ___ 4.0 -0.0

Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 __ 3-1 ____ 2.5 -1.0

so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0__ 2-0 ____ 1.0 -0.0

Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____ 1.0 -0.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.5 -0.0

Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33 -0.0

wxdude64 ________________ 1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33 -0.0

maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33 -0.0

Normal ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 ____ 1-1 ____ 1.0 -1.0

RJay ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-1____ 0-1 ____0.0 -1.0

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...