2025 forecast contests -- enter for Feb 2025 (deadline 06z Feb 1)

hudsonvalley21 · January 31

February

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.0 1.6 0.2 -0.9

wxdude64 · February 1

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +0.6

BOS: +0.2

ORD: +0.5

ATL: +2.1

IAH: +1.1

DEN: +0.7

PHX: +0.3

SEA: -1.2

Roger Smith · February 1

+0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 _ -1.7 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5

Stormchaserchuck1 · February 1

February

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

4.0 3.9 3.2 2.8 5.8 5.2 0.9 1.0 -4.7

so_whats_happening · February 1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+2.8 +2.6 +2.4 +2.9 +4.2 +4.8 +1.1 +1.7 -3.2

Whoops my bad

Rjay · February 2

DCA 0.0

NYC 0.0

BOS 0.0

ORD 0.0

ATL +3.0

IAH +3.5

DEN +1.2

PHX 0.0

SEA -2.5

Roger Smith · February 3

January is scored back in the Jan section, generally most of scores are in a narrow range and nobody broke 600 -- and I've decided I won't impose late penalties (would be small anyway) because of the distractions of recent events and it being a weekend etc. Will post a table of Feb forecasts soon.

Roger Smith · February 5

Table of forecasts for February 2025

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

StormchaserChuck ________+4.0 _ +3.9 _ +3.2 __ +2.8 _ +5.8 _+5.2 __ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -4.7

DonSutherland1 ___________ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +5.2 _+4.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.5 _ -4.5

BKViking __________________ +3.1 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 ___ -0.9 _ +3.0 _ +1.2 __ -1.0 _ -0.1 __ -2.2

so_whats_happening ______+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.9 _+4.2 _ +4.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ -3.2

hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.6 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _-0.9

wxallannj __________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ___ -0.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.3 _ +0.7 _ -1.8

___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +0.5 _ +2.6 _+2.0 __+0.8_ +0.7 _ -2.4

wxdude64 _________________ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ -1.2

RodneyS ___________________+1.3 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 __ +0.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ -4.5

Tom _______________________ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ -1.1

Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

Roger Smith _______________ +0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 ___ -1.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5

RJay ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 ___ +1.2 __0.0 _ -2.5

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __ -3.3 _ -2.5 _ -1.1 _____ -2.6 _ -4.1 _ -4.4 ___ -5.9 _ -1.2 _ -3.7

============================= [] =============================

Warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is also colder than all forecasts at ATL, IAH and equal at DCA.

Normal is also equal to warmest forecast for SEA. (persistence not incl in this analysis)

Roger Smith · February 5

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___ 49.0_ 6.3__87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0__ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0 ___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.5

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __ 57.4 _ 5.8 _ 91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

_________________________

To date _____ (Feb 18) _______14.8__12.5 _28.1 ___14.8 _25.1__ 68.2 ___ 42.7 __2.3 __60.9 ____269.4

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

Roger Smith · February 12

IAH was +15.7 for Feb 1-10, dry; 1.60" rain fell on Feb 11, still a +8 dep, so will be close to +14 for Feb 1-11.

DEN was also warm at first but 11th was very cold, anomaly will be close to zero in a day or two.

Will update snowfall contest totals in a few days as snow will be falling at a few locations again today and tomorrow.

Roger Smith · Monday at 01:05 AM

Anomalies and projections after 15 days ...

____________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ (anom 1-15) ___________+1.6 _ -1.0 _ -2.1 ___ +0.6 _ +9.6 _ +10.8 __ -0.9 _ +5.9 _ -9.5

__ (p anom 1-28) __________ -1.5 _ -3.0 _ -3.5 ___ -3.0 _ +4.0 _ +5.0 ___ -0.5 _ +3.0 _ -6.0

Very cold for next week in eastern and central regions, more variable later. Staying warm in s.w. and cold in n.w. ... will post preliminary scoring for Feb later. DEN will likely fall to -4 but I expect it will recover most or all by Feb 28.

Roger Smith · Monday at 08:40 AM

Preliminary scoring for Feb 2025

based on projected end of month anomalies posted above ... raw scores only for now, max 60 rule will be applied later if needed.

If scores don't improve, max 60 will bring them up considerably. Confidence in projections is a bit less than ideal, scores could change.

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL

StormchaserChuck _______ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __000 __ 00 _ 64 _ 96 __160 _160 _ 72 _ 60 _ 84 __ 216 ___ 376

DonSutherland1 ___________ 06 _ 00 _ 00 __006 __ 00 _ 76 _ 90 __166 _172 _ 54 _ 50 _ 80 __ 184 ___ 356

BKViking __________________ 08 _ 00 _ 00 __008 __ 58 _ 80 _ 24 __156 _164 _ 90 _ 38 _ 34 __ 162 ___ 326

so_whats_happening ______ 14 _ 00 _ 00 __014 __ 00 _ 96 _ 96 __192 _206 _ 68 _ 74 _ 54 __ 196 ___ 402

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 18 _ 02 _ 00 __020 __ 00 _ 72 _ 40 __112 _ 132 _ 58 _ 44 _ 09 __ 111 ____ 243

wxallannj __________________ 34 _ 12 _ 14 __ 060 __ 48 _ 56 _ 32 __136 _ 196 _ 98 _ 54 _ 26 __ 178 ___ 374

___ Consensus ____________36 _ 10 _ 06 __052 __ 30 _ 72 _ 40 __ 142 _ 194 _ 74 _ 54 _ 38 __ 166 ___ 360

wxdude64 _________________40 _ 28 _ 26 __094 __ 30 _ 62 _ 22 __ 114 _ 208 _ 76 _ 46 _ 14 __ 136 ___ 344

RodneyS ___________________44 _ 22 _ 14 __ 080 __ 36 _ 70 _ 56 __ 162 _ 242 _ 66 _ 74 _ 80__ 220 ___ 462

Tom ________________________48 _ 10 _ 00 __ 058 __ 06 _ 42 _ 16 __ 064 _ 124 _ 80 _ 54 _ 12 __ 146 ___ 270

Scotty Lightning ___________ 50 _ 20 _ 20 __090 __ 30 _ 30 _ 20 __ 080 _ 170 _ 70 _ 60 _ 00 __ 130 ___ 300

Roger Smith ________________64 _ 46 _ 40 __ 150 __ 74 _ 40 _ 40 __ 150 _ 300 _ 40 _ 54 _ 40 __ 134 ___ 434

RJay _______________________ 70 _ 40 _ 30 __ 140 __ 40 _ 80 _ 70 __ 190 _ 330 _ 66 _ 40 _ 40 __ 146 ___ 476

___ Normal _________________ 70 _ 40 _ 30 __ 140 __ 40 _ 20 _ 00 __ 060 _ 200 _ 90 _ 40 _ 00 __ 130 ___ 330

Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __64 _ 90 _ 52 __206 __ 92 _ 00 _ 00 __ 092 _ 298 __ 00 _ 16 _ 64 __ 080 ___ 378

EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT

DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, SEA are likely to be wins for coldest forecasts (RJay, RSx3, SC)

IAH and PHX will likely be wins for warmest forecasts (SC, swh)

ATL and DEN are not presently qualifying.

=========================================================

(forecasts)