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2025 forecast contests -- enter for Feb 2025 (deadline 06z Feb 1)

Roger Smith
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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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I will go on with contests in 2025, let's keep one annual contest thread ... I will always post on 25th of preceding month any news about additional contests (summer max, snowfall) and scoring will be same format. Readers who might prefer to discuss in general terms can post ideas without being entered in contest, I will only score forecasts in format of departures from 1991-2020 averages at 

______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

... deadlines will be 06z of 1st of each month, and late penalties 1% per half day to 18z 4th, then 1% an hour. (7% + hrs, expiry 8th 15z)

Contest will continue regardless of participation rates even if it turns into a smaller group, as we strive for the elusive new record of 810/900.

A history of this contest (2013-2024) is posted in Dec 2023 contest and will migrate to Dec 2024 at end of contest year. 

Don't forget, no contest threads in 2025, all months will be contained and scored in this one thread. Good luck everyone, and welcome to any new participants. (scroll thru Dec 2024 contest to get an idea of what we do).

 

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so_whats_happening

so_whats_happening

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On 12/27/2024 at 2:47 PM, Roger Smith said:

I will go on with contests in 2025, let's keep one annual contest thread ... I will always post on 25th of preceding month any news about additional contests (summer max, snowfall) and scoring will be same format. Readers who might prefer to discuss in general terms can post ideas without being entered in contest, I will only score forecasts in format of departures from 1991-2020 averages at 

______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

... deadlines will be 06z of 1st of each month, and late penalties 1% per half day to 18z 4th, then 1% an hour. (7% + hrs, expiry 8th 15z)

Contest will continue regardless of participation rates even if it turns into a smaller group, as we strive for the elusive new record of 810/900.

A history of this contest (2013-2024) is posted in Dec 2023 contest and will migrate to Dec 2024 at end of contest year. 

Don't forget, no contest threads in 2025, all months will be contained and scored in this one thread. Good luck everyone, and welcome to any new participants. (scroll thru Dec 2024 contest to get an idea of what we do).

 

If you need any help feel free to reach out via DM's ill post my prediction tomorrow. Happy New Year!

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Thanks, my health has improved considerably since November when I was beginning to wonder if I would make it to New Years. In fact it has improved back to how it was before I felt sick. So I should be fine to continue on as usual, hoping we find a full renewal of the glorious twelve (I think) of 2024. 

I feel pretty confident about going earlier than I usually do with 

-3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 _ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5

looks like western ridge eastern trof will lock in for most of month to me, perhaps a bit less pronounced in second half, or I could see even larger departures being possible. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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I believe we usually observe a lenient policy on January late penalties so I won't assess any, and feel free to edit forecasts all day 2nd and to whenever I do the table of forecasts on Friday (likely to be early as I do a lot of wx-contest work late evenings, it gets busy for me with 3 contests on different fora but the busy interval is basically over by the 5th and so I just keep at it until it's all done. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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__ Forecasts for January 2025 __

 

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

wxallannj __________________________-1.8 _ -1.5 _ -1.3 ___ -2.1 _ -2.4 _ -1.2 ___ -0.7 _ +1.4 _ +2.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________________ -1.9 _ -1.7 _ -1.5 ___ -1.1 __-2.8 _ -0.4 ___ -1.2 _ +1.9 _ +1.4

maxim ____________________________ -2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 ____0.0 _ -2.0 _ +1.1 ___ +2.4 _ +3.5 _ +1.0

RodneyS __________________________-2.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ -0.8 _ -2.8 _-0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _-0.3

Roger Smith ______________________ -3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 __ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 ___ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5

Scotty Lightning __________________ -3.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 __ -4.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5

BKViking __________________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.2 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _ -1.0 ___ +0.9 _ +2.2 _ +3.0

___ Consensus ____________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.0 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _-0.7 ___+0.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.9

wxdude64 ________________________ -4.1 _ -2.7 __ -1.2 __ -2.3 _ -5.2 _ -0.9 ___ -0.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.9

so_whats_happening ______________-4.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.6 __ -3.7 _ -5.1 __ -1.6 ___ -1.2 __ +2.8 _ +1.5

RJay ______________________________ -4.5 _ -3.0 _ -2.0 __ -2.5 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0

DonSutherland1 ___________________ -5.0 _ -2.5 _ -1.0 __ -2.0 _ -5.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.0

StormchaserChuck _______________ -5.3 _ -4.4 _ -3.6 __ -7.0 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +5.7 _ +6.2 _ +4.2

Tom _______________________________ -5.7 _ -4.5 _ -2.9 __ -4.1 _ -5.9 __-1.1 ____ -0.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1

Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________ +0.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __+1.5 _+1.5 _ +5.7 ___+8.2 _ +6.5 _ +2.0

____________________________

warmest and coldest forecasts color coded; Normal is warmest for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL; coldest for PHX. 

consensus is median forecast (ranked 7 of 13 not incl Normal or Persistence)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Anomalies and projections ...

_____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

___ (anom1-16) ______ -4.2 _-2.3 _ -1.1 ___ -3.8 _-4.9 _-4.1 ___ -4.2 _ +0.9 _-1.0

__ (p anom 1-31) ____ -5.0 _-3.5 _ -2.5 ___ -6.5 _-6.5 _-5.5 ___ -5.0 __ 0.0 _-2.5

___ final anoms _____ -3.3 _-2.5 _ -1.1 ____ -2.6 _-4.1 _-4.4 ___ -5.9 _-1.2 _-3.7

Very cold intervals for all locations expected to dominate second half, PHX stays closer to normal and will be near +1.5 before seeing any negatives, IAH possibly too conservative if snow cover develops as it can create -25 anoms for several days, DEN is also going to recover to around -2 before dropping back, and SEA will have a very cold final week and drop a bit further below, despite possibly no snow cover in Puget Sound region (it has not snowed s of Anacortes WA so far in winter 24-25 at low elevations, lots above 1200' ... a little snow was reported in BLI and YVR in Dec, bare now). 

(22nd _ IAH and DEN were reduced by 1.0 in projections for scoring)

(Feb 1st _ Final anomalies posted above, scoring adjustments in progress)

Snowfall contest updates are below. 

 

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

 

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___ 49.0_ 6.3__87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0__ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0 ___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.5

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __ 57.4 _ 5.8 _ 91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

 

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

_________________________

To date _____ (Jan 25) ______ 8.6 __ 5.8 __12.5 ___ 9.9 _14.1 __ 48.7 ___ 37.0 __0.0 __27.9 ____164.5

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

 

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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__ Final Scoring for January 2025 __

based on anomalies posted above ... IAH, DEN and SEA have boosted scores (max 60) ... scores are either from a "minimum progression" (60, 55, 50 etc) or raw score whichever is higher. The minimum progression value can be increased if a forecast is within 2 or 4 by raw score of the next higher score. The most any score can be boosted is 4 relative to its minimum progression value.

Normal and consensus are scored from closest equivalent forecast scores, Persistence is only given raw scores. 

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS

 

wxdude64 ________________________84 _ 96 _ 98 __ 278 __ 94 _ 78 _ 38^__ 210 _ 488 __47^_ 34 _ 30^ __ 111 ____599

BKViking _________________________ 86 _ 96 _ 78 __ 260 __ 96 _ 98 _ 43^__ 237 _ 497 __33^_ 32 _ 28^__ 093 ____590

___ Consensus __________________ 86 _ 96 _ 82 __ 264 __ 96 _ 98 _ 32^__226 _ 490 _ 33^_ 32 _ 30^__ 095 ___ 585

wxallannj ________________________ 70 _ 80 _ 96 __ 246 __ 90 _ 66 _ 50^__ 206 _ 452 __ 50^_ 48 _ 35^__ 133 ____ 585

so_whats_happening _____________78 _ 88 _ 70 __ 236 __ 78 _ 80 _ 55^__ 213 _ 449 __ 60^_ 20 _ 48^__ 128 ____ 577

hudsonvalley21 __________________ 72 _ 84 _ 92 __ 248 __ 70 _ 74 _ 25^__ 169 __417 __ 60^_ 38 _ 50^__ 148 ____ 565

RodneyS _________________________ 90 _ 68 _ 86 __ 244 __ 64 _ 74 __20^__ 158 _ 402 __ 33^_ 64 _ 60^__157 ____559

DonSutherland1 __________________ 66 _100 _98 __ 264 __ 88 _ 72 _ 32^__ 192 _ 456 __ 35^_ 12 _ 28^ __ 075 ____ 531

Scotty Lightning _________________ 94 _ 80 _ 42 __ 216 __ 62 _ 58 _ 60^__ 180 _ 396 __ 15^ _ 26 _ 48^__ 089 ____485

RJay ______________________________76 _ 90 _ 82 __ 248 __ 98 _ 82 _ 15^___195 _ 443 __ 23^_ 00 _ 10^ __ 033 ____476

Roger Smith ______________________ 94 _100 _ 82 __ 276 __ 82 _ 98 _ 02^__ 182 _ 458 __ 00 _ 00 _ 15^__ 015 ____473

maxim ____________________________ 84 _ 80 _ 98 __ 262 __ 48 _ 58 _ 00 __ 106 _ 368 __ 10^_ 06 _ 55^__ 071 ____ 439

___ Normal ________________________ 34 _ 50 _ 78 __ 162 __ 48 _ 18 __ 15^ __ 081 _ 243 __ 38^_ 76 _ 58^__ 172 ____ 415

Tom _______________________________52 _ 60 _ 64 __ 176 __ 70 _ 64 _ 48^__ 182 __ 358 __ 40^_ 00 _ 08^__ 048 ____406

StormchaserChuck _______________ 60 _ 62 _ 50 __ 172 __ 12 __ 82 _ 15^__ 109 _ 281 __ 05^_ 00 _ 03^__ 008 ____ 289

- - - -

Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________30 _ 68 _ 86 __ 184 __ 18 _ 00 _ 00 __ 018 _ 202 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ____ 202

____________________________

Extreme forecasts so far ...

DCA, NYC, ORD and ATL did not qualify.

BOS was a shared win for three tied at 98 including second warmest -1.0, RodneyS takes a loss with warmest (-0.4).

IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA all go to coldest forecasts ...

... in order, Scotty Lightning (IAH), hudsonvalley21 tied so_whats_happening (DEN), Rodney S (PHX, SEA).

... Normal also wins for PHX. 

 

 

Forecasts for January 2025 __

 

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

___ Normal _________________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 

wxallannj __________________________-1.8 _ -1.5 _ -1.3 ___ -2.1 _ -2.4 _ -1.2 ___ -0.7 _ +1.4 _ +2.0 

hudsonvalley21 ___________________ -1.9 _ -1.7 _ -1.5 ___ -1.1 __-2.8 _ -0.4 ___ -1.2 _ +1.9 _ +1.4 

maxim ____________________________ -2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 ____0.0 _ -2.0 _ +1.1 ___ +2.4 _ +3.5 _ +1.0

RodneyS __________________________-2.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ -0.8 _ -2.8 _-0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _-0.3

Roger Smith ______________________ -3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 __ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 ___ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5

Scotty Lightning __________________ -3.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 __ -4.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5

BKViking __________________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.2 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _ -1.0 ___ +0.9 _ +2.2 _ +3.0

___ Consensus __________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.0 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _-0.7 __+0.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.9 

wxdude64 ________________________ -4.1 _ -2.7 __ -1.2 __ -2.3 _ -5.2 _ -0.9 ___ -0.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.9

so_whats_happening ______________-4.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.6 __ -3.7 _ -5.1 __ -1.6 ___ -1.2 __ +2.8 _ +1.5

RJay ______________________________ -4.5 _ -3.0 _ -2.0 __ -2.5 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0

DonSutherland1 ___________________ -5.0 _ -2.5 _ -1.0 __ -2.0 _ -5.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.0

StormchaserChuck ________________-5.3 _ -4.4 _ -3.6 __ -7.0 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +5.7 _ +6.2 _ +4.2

Tom _______________________________ -5.7 _ -4.5 _ -2.9 __ -4.1 _ -5.9 __ -1.1 ____ -0.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1 

Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________ +0.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __+1.5 _+1.5 _ +5.7 ___+8.2 _ +6.5 _ +2.0

____________________________

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