2025 forecast contests -- enter for Feb 2025 (deadline 06z Feb 1)

Roger Smith · December 27, 2024

I will go on with contests in 2025, let's keep one annual contest thread ... I will always post on 25th of preceding month any news about additional contests (summer max, snowfall) and scoring will be same format. Readers who might prefer to discuss in general terms can post ideas without being entered in contest, I will only score forecasts in format of departures from 1991-2020 averages at

______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... deadlines will be 06z of 1st of each month, and late penalties 1% per half day to 18z 4th, then 1% an hour. (7% + hrs, expiry 8th 15z)

Contest will continue regardless of participation rates even if it turns into a smaller group, as we strive for the elusive new record of 810/900.

A history of this contest (2013-2024) is posted in Dec 2023 contest and will migrate to Dec 2024 at end of contest year.

Don't forget, no contest threads in 2025, all months will be contained and scored in this one thread. Good luck everyone, and welcome to any new participants. (scroll thru Dec 2024 contest to get an idea of what we do).

hudsonvalley21 · December 29, 2024

January 2025
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.9 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -2.8 -0.4 -1.2 +1.9 +1.4

so_whats_happening · December 30, 2024

On 12/27/2024 at 2:47 PM, Roger Smith said:

I will go on with contests in 2025, let's keep one annual contest thread ... I will always post on 25th of preceding month any news about additional contests (summer max, snowfall) and scoring will be same format. Readers who might prefer to discuss in general terms can post ideas without being entered in contest, I will only score forecasts in format of departures from 1991-2020 averages at

______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... deadlines will be 06z of 1st of each month, and late penalties 1% per half day to 18z 4th, then 1% an hour. (7% + hrs, expiry 8th 15z)

Contest will continue regardless of participation rates even if it turns into a smaller group, as we strive for the elusive new record of 810/900.

A history of this contest (2013-2024) is posted in Dec 2023 contest and will migrate to Dec 2024 at end of contest year.

Don't forget, no contest threads in 2025, all months will be contained and scored in this one thread. Good luck everyone, and welcome to any new participants. (scroll thru Dec 2024 contest to get an idea of what we do).

If you need any help feel free to reach out via DM's ill post my prediction tomorrow. Happy New Year!

Roger Smith · December 30, 2024

Thanks, my health has improved considerably since November when I was beginning to wonder if I would make it to New Years. In fact it has improved back to how it was before I felt sick. So I should be fine to continue on as usual, hoping we find a full renewal of the glorious twelve (I think) of 2024.

I feel pretty confident about going earlier than I usually do with

-3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 _ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5

looks like western ridge eastern trof will lock in for most of month to me, perhaps a bit less pronounced in second half, or I could see even larger departures being possible.

wxallannj · December 31, 2024

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -2.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 +1.4 +2.0

donsutherland1 · December 31, 2024

DCA -5.0

NYC -2.5

BOS -1.0

ORD -2.0

ATL -5.5

IAH -0.7

DEN +0.8

PHX + 3.2

SEA +3.0

Tom · December 31, 2024

DCA -5.7

NYC -4.5

BOS -2.9

ORD -4.1

ATL -5.9

IAH -1.1

DEN -0.1

PHX + 4.2

SEA +4.1

wxdude64 · December 31, 2024

DCA: -4.1

NYC: -2.7

BOS: -1.2

ORD: -2.3

ATL: -5.2

IAH: -0.9

DEN: -0.5

PHX: +2.1

SEA: +2.9

wxdude64 · January 1

Roger,

If you need some help at times, I'd be willing to help. Just give a holler (DM). Appreciate all the time you've put into this all these years!

RodneyS · January 1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-2.8 -0.9 -0.4 -0.8 -2.8 -0.2 0.9 0.6 -0.3

so_whats_happening · January 1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-4.4 -3.1 -2.6 -3.7 -5.1 -1.6 -1.2 +2.8 +1.5

Stormchaserchuck1 · January 1

Hopefully I'm not too late.

January 2025
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-5.3 -4.4 -3.6 -7 -5 0 +5.7 +6.2 +4.2

Scotty Lightning · January 1

oops

____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-3.0 -3.5 -4.0 -4.5 -2.0 -2.0 2.0 2.5 1.5

Maxim · January 1

DCA: -2.5

NYC: -1.5

BOS: -1.0

ORD: 0.0

ATL: -2.0

IAH: +1.1

DEN: +2.4

PHX: +3.5

SEA: +1.0

Rjay · January 2

DCA -4.5

NYC -3.0

BOS -2.0

ORD -2.5

ATL -5.0

IAH 0.0

DEN +1.0

PHX + 4.5

SEA +4.0

bkviking · January 2

DCA -4.0

NYC -2.7

BOS -2.2

ORD -2.4

ATL -4.2

IAH -1.0

DEN +0.9

PHX + 2.2

SEA +3.0

Roger Smith · January 2

I believe we usually observe a lenient policy on January late penalties so I won't assess any, and feel free to edit forecasts all day 2nd and to whenever I do the table of forecasts on Friday (likely to be early as I do a lot of wx-contest work late evenings, it gets busy for me with 3 contests on different fora but the busy interval is basically over by the 5th and so I just keep at it until it's all done.

Roger Smith · January 3

__ Forecasts for January 2025 __

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

wxallannj __________________________-1.8 _ -1.5 _ -1.3 ___ -2.1 _ -2.4 _ -1.2 ___ -0.7 _ +1.4 _ +2.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________________ -1.9 _ -1.7 _ -1.5 ___ -1.1 __-2.8 _ -0.4 ___ -1.2 _ +1.9 _ +1.4

maxim ____________________________ -2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 ____0.0 _ -2.0 _ +1.1 ___ +2.4 _ +3.5 _ +1.0

RodneyS __________________________-2.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ -0.8 _ -2.8 _-0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _-0.3

Roger Smith ______________________ -3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 __ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 ___ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5

Scotty Lightning __________________ -3.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 __ -4.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5

BKViking __________________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.2 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _ -1.0 ___ +0.9 _ +2.2 _ +3.0

___ Consensus ____________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.0 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _-0.7 ___+0.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.9

wxdude64 ________________________ -4.1 _ -2.7 __ -1.2 __ -2.3 _ -5.2 _ -0.9 ___ -0.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.9

so_whats_happening ______________-4.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.6 __ -3.7 _ -5.1 __ -1.6 ___ -1.2 __ +2.8 _ +1.5

RJay ______________________________ -4.5 _ -3.0 _ -2.0 __ -2.5 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0

DonSutherland1 ___________________ -5.0 _ -2.5 _ -1.0 __ -2.0 _ -5.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.0

StormchaserChuck _______________ -5.3 _ -4.4 _ -3.6 __ -7.0 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +5.7 _ +6.2 _ +4.2

Tom _______________________________ -5.7 _ -4.5 _ -2.9 __ -4.1 _ -5.9 __-1.1 ____ -0.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1

Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________ +0.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __+1.5 _+1.5 _ +5.7 ___+8.2 _ +6.5 _ +2.0

____________________________

warmest and coldest forecasts color coded; Normal is warmest for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL; coldest for PHX.

consensus is median forecast (ranked 7 of 13 not incl Normal or Persistence)

Rhino16 · January 3

Dangit, I told myself I would try to be consistent this year. Got busy and forgot to enter

Roger Smith · January 4

6 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Dangit, I told myself I would try to be consistent this year. Got busy and forgot to enter

I waived late penalties to earlier Friday so if you want to get started at a very reasonable 5% penalty (by 18z Sat) you can jump in.

Maxim · January 8

Seems pretty unclear still how the rest of the month will play out.

Roger Smith · January 17

Anomalies and projections ...

_____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

___ (anom1-16) ______ -4.2 _-2.3 _ -1.1 ___ -3.8 _-4.9 _-4.1 ___ -4.2 _ +0.9 _-1.0

__ (p anom 1-31) ____ -5.0 _-3.5 _ -2.5 ___ -6.5 _-6.5 _-5.5 ___ -5.0 __ 0.0 _-2.5

Very cold intervals for all locations expected to dominate second half, PHX stays closer to normal and will be near +1.5 before seeing any negatives, IAH possibly too conservative if snow cover develops as it can create -25 anoms for several days, DEN is also going to recover to around -2 before dropping back, and SEA will have a very cold final week and drop a bit further below, despite possibly no snow cover in Puget Sound region (it has not snowed s of Anacortes WA so far in winter 24-25 at low elevations, lots above 1200' ... a little snow was reported in BLI and YVR in Dec, bare now).

(22nd _ IAH and DEN were reduced by 1.0 in projections for scoring)

Snowfall contest updates are below.

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___ 49.0_ 6.3__87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0__ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0 ___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.5

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __ 57.4 _ 5.8 _ 91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

_________________________

To date _____ (Jan 25) ______ 8.6 __ 5.8 __12.5 ___ 9.9 _14.1 __ 48.7 ___ 37.0 __0.0 __27.9 ____164.5

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

Roger Smith · January 22

__ Preliminary Scoring for January 2025 __

based on projected anomalies posted above ... IAH, DEN and possibly SEA will see boosted scores (max 60)

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS

___ Normal _________________________00 _ 30 _ 50 __ 080 __00 _ 00 _ 00 _ 000 _ 080 __ 00 _100 _ 50 __ 150 ____ 230

wxallannj __________________________ 36 _ 60 _ 76 __ 172 __ 27 _ 33 _ 19 __ 079 _ 251 ___ 14 _ 72 _ 10 __ 096 ____ 347

hudsonvalley21 ____________________38 _ 64 _ 80 __ 182 __ 11 __ 41 _ 04 __ 056 _ 238 __ 24 _ 62 _ 22 __ 108 ____ 346

maxim _____________________________50 _ 60 _ 70 __ 180 __ 00 _ 25 _ 00 __ 025 _ 205 __ 00 _ 30 _ 30 __ 060 ____ 265

RodneyS __________________________ 56 _ 48 _ 58 __ 162 __ 08 _ 41 __ 02 __ 051 _ 213 __ 00 _ 88 _ 58 __ 146 ____ 359

Roger Smith _______________________ 60 _ 80 _ 90 __ 230 __ 55 _ 65 _ 00 __ 120 _ 350 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ____350

Scotty Lightning ___________________60 _ 100 _ 70 __ 230 __ 75 _ 25 _ 35 __ 135 _ 365 __ 00 _ 50 _ 20 __ 070 ____ 435

BKViking __________________________ 80 _ 84 _ 94 __ 258 __ 33 _ 69 _ 15 ___ 117 _ 375 __ 00 _ 56 _ 00 __ 056 ____ 431

___ Consensus ___________________ 80 _ 84 _ 90 __ 254 __ 33 _ 69 _ 09 __ 111 __365 __ 00 _ 56 _ 00 __ 056 ____ 421

wxdude64 _________________________82 _ 84 _ 74 __ 240 ___ 31 _ 87 _ 13 ___ 131 _ 371 __ 10 __ 58 _ 00 __ 068 ____ 439

so_whats_happening ______________ 88 _ 92 _ 98 __ 278 __ 59 _ 86 _ 27 ___ 172 _ 450 __24 _ 44 _ 20 __ 088 ____ 538

RJay _______________________________ 90 _ 90 _ 90 __ 270 __ 35 _ 85 _ 00 ___120 _ 390 __ 00 _ 10 _ 00 __ 010 ____ 400

DonSutherland1 ___________________ 100 _ 80 _ 70 __ 250 __ 25 _ 90 _ 09 ___124 _ 374 __ 00 _ 36 _ 00 __ 036 ____ 410

StormchaserChuck ________________ 94 _ 82 _ 78 __ 254 __ 95 _ 85 __ 00 __ 180 _ 434 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00__ 000 ____ 434

Tom ________________________________ 86 _ 80 _ 92 __ 258 __ 67 _ 94 _ 17 ___ 178 _ 436 __ 02 _ 16 _ 00 __ 018 ____ 454

Persistence (Dec 2024) ____________ 00 _ 48 _ 58 __ 106 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 _ 106 __ 00 _ 00 _ 10 __ 010 ____ 116

____________________________

Extreme forecasts so far ...

DCA not quite in range (-5.2 is req'd), NYC and BOS likely won't qualify.

ORD, ATL, IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA all go to coldest forecasts ...

... in order, StormchaserChuck, Tom, Scotty Lightning, hudsonvalley21, Rodney S (last two).

... Normal also wins for PHX.

Forecasts for January 2025 __