hudsonvalley21 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 February DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.0 1.6 0.2 -0.9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 DCA: +1.5 NYC: +0.6 BOS: +0.2 ORD: +0.5 ATL: +2.1 IAH: +1.1 DEN: +0.7 PHX: +0.3 SEA: -1.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 1 Author Share Posted February 1 +0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 _ -1.7 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 February DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 4.0 3.9 3.2 2.8 5.8 5.2 0.9 1.0 -4.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.8 +2.6 +2.4 +2.9 +4.2 +4.8 +1.1 +1.7 -3.2 Whoops my bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 DCA 0.0 NYC 0.0 BOS 0.0 ORD 0.0 ATL +3.0 IAH +3.5 DEN +1.2 PHX 0.0 SEA -2.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 January is scored back in the Jan section, generally most of scores are in a narrow range and nobody broke 600 -- and I've decided I won't impose late penalties (would be small anyway) because of the distractions of recent events and it being a weekend etc. Will post a table of Feb forecasts soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Table of forecasts for February 2025 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck ________+4.0 _ +3.9 _ +3.2 __ +2.8 _ +5.8 _+5.2 __ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -4.7 DonSutherland1 ___________ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +5.2 _+4.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.5 _ -4.5 BKViking __________________ +3.1 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 ___ -0.9 _ +3.0 _ +1.2 __ -1.0 _ -0.1 __ -2.2 so_whats_happening ______+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.9 _+4.2 _ +4.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ -3.2 hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.6 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _-0.9 wxallannj __________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ___ -0.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.3 _ +0.7 _ -1.8 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +0.5 _ +2.6 _+2.0 __+0.8_ +0.7 _ -2.4 wxdude64 _________________ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ -1.2 RodneyS ___________________+1.3 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 __ +0.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ -4.5 Tom _______________________ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ -1.1 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith _______________ +0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 ___ -1.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5 RJay ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 ___ +1.2 __0.0 _ -2.5 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __ -3.3 _ -2.5 _ -1.1 _____ -2.6 _ -4.1 _ -4.4 ___ -5.9 _ -1.2 _ -3.7 ============================= [] ============================= Warmest and coldest forecasts color coded, Normal is also colder than all forecasts at ATL, IAH and equal at DCA. Normal is also equal to warmest forecast for SEA. (persistence not incl in this analysis) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025 ... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ... FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1 wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6 Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7 ___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 __38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3 BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0__ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0 ___ 408.0 RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3 ___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0 RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0 Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0 wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0 so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0 ___________________________ Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0 ____________________ To date _____ (MAR 31) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _26.9__ 77.2 ___ 45.5 __2.3 __75.3 ____300.7 (contest incl all seasonal snow) Scoring update FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL Roger Smith _______________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0_ 25.3_ 52.8 ___ 43.5_ 0.8_ 34.0 ___228.8 wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2_ 14.4 _ 45.7 ___25.7 _ 5.1 _27.4 ___ 181.9 Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0_ 15.4 _ 25.4 ___ 12.2 _ 4.1 __ 8.1 ___ 136.0 ___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2_ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 18.1 __18.2 ___ 3.5_ 4.0__12.2 ___115.0 BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 1.1 __ 20.8 ____ 9.5 _11.7__24.7 ___ 113.1 RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 18.1 __ 21.8 ___ 12.5 _ 7.2 __9.7 ___ 122.8 ___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7_ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __9.8 __27.0 ___ 11.9 _3.5 _16.4 ___103.5 RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 8.1 __ 22.8 ___ 14.5_ 3.7 _ 24.7 ___ 118.9 Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 3.1 __ 28.8 ____ 0.5 _0.7 _ 24.7 ___ 94.3 wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 8.1 __ 16.8 ____ 5.5 _ 1.7 _ 12.7 ____ 92.3 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 18.1 __ 17.8 ____ 9.5 _ 5.7 __ 0.3 ___ 91.2 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 2.9 __ 24.8 ____5.5 _ 1.7 __ 8.7 ___ 62.3 so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 4.1 __ 20.8 ____ 6.5 _ 0.7 __ 5.7 ___ 64.1 Persistence (2023-2024) __ 6.9__ 5.4__18.3___ 4.6 __ 3.4____ 5.9 ____ 0.9 _2.0 _ 14.5 ___ 61.9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 IAH was +15.7 for Feb 1-10, dry; 1.60" rain fell on Feb 11, still a +8 dep, so will be close to +14 for Feb 1-11. DEN was also warm at first but 11th was very cold, anomaly will be close to zero in a day or two. Will update snowfall contest totals in a few days as snow will be falling at a few locations again today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Anomalies and projections after 15 and 22 days ... ____________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom 1-15) ___________+1.6 _ -1.0 _ -2.1 ___ +0.6 _ +9.6 _ +10.8 __ -0.9 _ +5.9 _ -9.5 ___ (anom 1-22) ___________-1.0 _ -3.2 _ -3.5 ___ -4.8 _ +3.4 _ +2.8 ___ -5.1 _ +5.3 _ -5.7 16 (p anom 1-28) __________-1.5 _ -3.0 _ -3.5 ___ -3.0 _ +4.0 _ +5.0 ___ -0.5 _ +3.0 _ -6.0 23 (p anom 1-28) __________+0.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.5 __ -3.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 ___ -0.5 _ +4.0 _ -3.5 final anomalies _____________+1.0 _ -0.8 _ -1.1 ___ -1.6 _ +4.1 _ +2.4 ____ -1.5 _ +6.1 _ -3.6 (Feb 16) _Very cold for next week in eastern and central regions, more variable later. Staying warm in s.w. and cold in n.w. ... will post preliminary scoring for Feb later. DEN will likely fall to -4 but I expect it will recover most or all by Feb 28. (Feb 23) _ Rather warm to end Feb in all regions, will adjust projections and preliminary scoring. (end) _ Late surge of warm temps drove scoring up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Final scoring for Feb 2025 based on end of month anomalies posted above ... raw scores for PHX ranged 00-23, so applying a fair range for max 60 rule, range was 20 to 60 in eleven steps (several ties intervened and last 4 steps also boosted +4 to keep pace w/differentials). These scores have ^ designations. FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________86 _ 90 _ 88 __ 264 __ 98 _ 38 _ 92 __228 _492 _ 60 _ 44^_ 78 __ 182 ___ 674 RodneyS ___________________94 _ 66 _ 62 __ 222 __ 64 _ 68 _ 92 __224 _ 446 _ 46 _ 60^_ 82 __ 188 ___ 634 RJay _______________________ 80 _ 84 _ 78 __ 242 __ 68 _ 78 _ 78 __ 224 _ 466 _ 46 _ 24^_ 78 __ 148 ___ 614 wxallannj ___________________84 _ 56 _ 62 __ 202 __ 76 _ 54 _ 84 __ 214 _ 416 _ 76 _ 44^_ 64 __ 184 ___ 600 ___ Consensus ____________86 _ 54 _ 54 __ 194 __ 58 _ 70 _ 92 __ 220 _ 414 _ 54 _ 44^_ 76 __ 174 ___ 588 wxdude64 _________________90 _ 72 _ 74 __ 236 __ 58 _ 60 _ 74 __ 192 _ 428 _ 56 _ 32^_ 52 __ 140 ___ 568 BKViking __________________ 58 _ 38 _ 38 __ 134 __ 86 _ 78 _ 76 __240 _ 374 _ 90 _ 20^_ 72 __ 182 ___ 556 Scotty Lightning ___________100 _64 _ 68 __ 232 __ 58 _ 38 _ 72 __ 168 _ 400 _ 50 _ 52^_ 28 __ 130 ___ 530 ___ Normal _________________ 80 _ 84 _ 78 __ 242 __ 68 _ 18 _ 52 __ 138 _ 380 _ 70 _ 24^_ 28 __ 122 ___ 502 Tom ________________________98 _ 54 _ 48 __ 200 __ 34 _ 40 _ 68 __142 _ 342 _ 60 _ 44^_ 50 __ 154 ___ 496 so_whats_happening ______ 64 _ 32 _ 30 __ 126 __ 10 _ 98 _ 52 __160 _ 286 _ 48 _ 60^_ 92 __ 200 ___ 486 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 68 _ 46 _ 36 __ 150 __ 24 _ 70 _ 92 __186 _ 336 _ 38 _ 28^ _ 46 __ 112 ___ 448 DonSutherland1 ___________ 56 _ 24 _ 28 __ 108 __ 18 _ 78 _ 58 __ 154 _ 262 _ 34 _ 36^_ 82 __ 152 ___ 414 StormchaserChuck _______ 40 _ 06 _ 14 __ 060 __ 12 _ 66 _ 44 __ 122 _ 182 _ 52 _ 52^ _ 78 __ 182 ___ 364 ---- ---- Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __14 _ 66 _ 100 __ 180 __ 80 _ 00 _ 00 __ 080 _ 260 _ 12 _ 00 _ 98 __ 110 ___ 370 EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT NYC, BOS, ORD were wins for coldest forecasts (RSx3) DEN (-1.5) was a win for BKViking (-1.0) and a loss for RS (-3.5) PHX (+6.1) was a win for warmest forecasts (swh, RodneyS at +1.7) DCA, ATL, IAH , DEN, SEA did not qualify. ========================================================= (forecasts) FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck ________+4.0 _ +3.9 _ +3.2 __ +2.8 _ +5.8 _+5.2 __ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -4.7 DonSutherland1 ___________ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +5.2 _+4.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.5 _ -4.5 BKViking __________________ +3.1 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 ___ -0.9 _ +3.0 _ +1.2 __ -1.0 _ -0.1 __ -2.2 so_whats_happening ______+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___ +2.9 _+4.2 _ +4.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.7 _ -3.2 hudsonvalley21 ____________+2.6 _ +1.9 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.6 _ +2.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.2 _-0.9 wxallannj __________________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ___ -0.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.3 _ +0.7 _ -1.8 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.6 _+2.0 __+0.8_ +0.7 _-2.4 wxdude64 _________________ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___+0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ -1.2 RodneyS ___________________+1.3 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 __ +0.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ -4.5 Tom _______________________ +1.1 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ -1.1 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith _______________ +0.3 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 ___ -1.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ -3.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.5 RJay ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 ___ +1.2 __0.0 _ -2.5 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Persistence __ (Jan 2025) __ -3.3 _ -2.5 _ -1.1 _____ -2.6 _ -4.1 _ -4.4 ___ -5.9 _ -1.2 _ -3.7 ============================= [] ============================= 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 24 Author Share Posted February 24 === ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === Feb scores and annual totals are now adjusted FORECASTER _______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS RodneyS _____________________ 184 _134 _148 __ 466 __ 128 _142 _112 __ 382 _ 848 __ 79 _124 _142 __ 345____1193 wxallannj _____________________154 _136 _158 __ 448 __ 166 _120 _134__ 420 _ 868 __126 _ 92 _ 99 __ 317 ____ 1185 ___ Consensus ______________ 172 _150 _136 __ 458 __154 _168 _124 __ 446 _ 904 _ 87 _ 76 _106 __ 269 ____1173 wxdude64 ____________________174 _168 _172 __ 514 __ 152 _ 138 _112 __ 402 _ 916 __103 _ 66 _ 82 __ 251 ____ 1167 Roger Smith __________________180 _190 _170 __ 540 __ 180 _136 _ 94 __ 410 _ 950 __60 _ 44 _ 93 __ 197 ____ 1147 BKViking _____________________ 144 _134 _116 __ 394 __ 182 _176 _119 __ 477 _ 871 __123 _ 52 _100 __ 275 ____ 1146 RJay __________________________156 _174 _160 __ 490 __166 _ 160 _ 93 __ 419 _ 909 __ 69 _ 24 _ 88 __ 181 ____ 1090 so_whats_happening _________142 _120 _100 __ 362 __ 88 _ 178 _107 __ 373 _ 735 __ 108 _ 80 _140__ 328 ____1063 Scotty Lightning _____________ 194 _144 _110 __ 448 __120 _ 96 _ 132 __ 348 _ 796 __ 65 _ 78 _ 76 __ 219 ____ 1015 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 140 _130 _128 __ 398 __ 94 _ 144 _117 __ 355 __ 753 __98 _ 66 _ 96 __ 260 ____1013 DonSutherland1 ______________ 122 _124 _126 __ 372 ___106 _150 _ 90 __ 346 _ 718 __69 _ 48 _110 __ 227 ____ 945 ___ Normal ____________________114 _134 _156 __ 404 __116 _ 36 __67 ___ 219 __ 623 __108 _100_ 86__ 294 ____ 917 Tom __________________________ 150 _114 _ 112 __ 376 __104 _104 _116 __ 324 __ 700 __100 _ 44 _ 58__ 202 ____902 StormchaserChuck ___________ 100 _ 68 _ 64 __ 232 __24 _ 148 _ 59__ 231 __ 463 ___57 _ 52 _ 81 __ 190 ____ 653 maxim (1/2) ___________________ 84 _ 80 _ 98 __ 262 __ 48 _ 58 _ 00 __ 106 __ 368 __ 10 _ 06 _ 55 __ 071 ____ 439 - - - - Persistence ___________________ 44 _134 _186 __ 364 ___ 98 _ 00 _ 00 __ 098 _ 462 __ 12 _ 00 _ 98 __ 110 ____ 572 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ____________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS RodneyS ____________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus _____________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan Roger Smith ________________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___1 __ 1 * __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Feb BKViking ____________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RJay ________________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 so_whats_happening _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Don Sutherland 1 ___________ 0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Normal __________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom ________________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 StormchaserChuck _________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 maxim ______________________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 10 of 18 ... 2 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb ___ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 ___ 3-1 ___ 3.0 -1.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 __ 3-1 ____ 2.5 -1.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0__ 2-0 ____ 1.0 -0.0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____ 1.0 -0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___ 1-0 ____ 1.0-0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.5 -0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 ________________ 1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 ____ 1-1 ____ 1.0 -1.0 RJay, Tom, SC ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0 ========================================================= Four Seasons Winter 2024-2025 scoring 12 pts to winner, 10 down to 1 point for rest of field, and 1 point for all entrants at least 2/3. FORECASTER ________________ DEC _ JAN _ FEB ___ TOTAL _____ points BKViking _____________________659 __ 590 __ 556 ____ 1805 ___ 12 wxallannj _____________________615 __ 585 __ 600 ____ 1800 ___ 10 RJay _________________________ 613 __ 476 __ 614 ____ 1703 ____ 9 so_whats_happening ________ 599 __ 577 __ 486 ____ 1662 ____ 8 ___ Consensus ______________ 598 __ 585 __ 588 ____ 1771 ___ 9.7 wxdude64 ___________________ 486 __ 599 __ 568 ____ 1653 ____ 7 Roger Smith __________________470 __ 473 __ 674 ____ 1617 ____ 6 Don Sutherland1 ______________642 __ 531 __ 414 ____ 1587 ____ 5 Scotty Lightning _____________ 527 __ 485 __ 530 ____ 1542 ____ 4 hudsonvalley21 _______________519 __ 565 __ 448 ____ 1532 ____ 3 RodneyS _____________________ 295 __ 559 __ 634 ____ 1488 ____ 2 Tom __________________________ 515 __ 406 __ 496 ____ 1417 ____ 1 ___ Normal __________________ 470 __ 415 __ 502 ____ 1387 ____ 1 StormchaserChuck __________ 675 __ 289 __ 364 ____ 1328 ____ 1 ___________________________ Persistence ___________________202 __ 202 __ 370 _____ 774 ___ 1 ____________________________ maxim ___________________ --- __ 439 __ --- ____ 439 __ 0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 March BOS +5.7 NYC +5.5 DCA +6.3 ORD +8.0 ATL +5.5 IAH +5.5 DEN +5.1 PHX +0.7 SEA -1.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 BOS +3.0 NYC +3.0 DCA +3.0 ORD +2.5 ATL +3.0 IAH +3.0 DEN -3.0 PHX -1.0 SEA -3.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 March BOS +2.3 NYC +2.1 DCA +3.3 ORD +2.9 ATL +3.6 IAH +3.5 DEN +1.8 PHX -0.3 SEA -0.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 March DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.0 1.4 1.4 3.6 2.0 3.2 2.4 1.0 -0.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 BOS +2.8 NYC +2.7 DCA +3.1 ORD +5.8 ATL +2.9 IAH +4.8 DEN +3.1 PHX +1.3 SEA -1.9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +4.7 +4.5 +4.6 +7.0 +4.5 +3.8 +3.2 +2.4 -2.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +4.5 +3.9 +2.2 +4.8 +4.2 +4.1 -.5 -2.8 -1.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.1 -0.4 2.1 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Lousy Smarch weather! DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 March DCA: +0.6 NYC: +0.4 BOS: -0.2 ORD: +0.8 ATL: +1.9 IAH: +2.2 DEN: +0.8 PHX: +0.9 SEA: -0.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 -1.5 _ -1.3 _ -0.2 _ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ +0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 March DCA: +3.0 NYC: +2.5 BOS: +2.0 ORD: +4.0 ATL: +2.5 IAH: +2.5 DEN: +1.0 PHX: -0.7 SEA: -1.0 Little late since I was on vacation in Barbados. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 BOS +2.0 NYC +2..1 DCA +2.3 ORD +2.5 ATL +3.2 IAH +3.0 DEN +1.2 PHX +0.2 SEA -1.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 I gave a break on late penalties in Feb (to RJay and so_whats_happening), and I'll do the same for you two as you posted in a similar time frame. Let's say every regular forecaster can expect a break once during the contest year, with second late appearances being penalized as per lenient rules we have. I only impose 1% per half day to 3rd then it would start to increase (after 18z 3rd) to 1% per hour. All scoring for Feb complete, added Four Seasons winter rankings to previous post today (2nd). Table of forecasts will follow as I think all regular entrants are in now. __ Table of forecasts for March 2025 __ FORECASTER ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Maxim ______________________________ +6.3 _+5.5 _+5.7 __ +8.0 _+5.5 _ +5.5 ___ +5.1 _+0.7 _-1.0 StormchaserChuck1 ________________ +4.7 _+4.5 _+4.8 __ +7.0 _+4.5 _ +3.8 ___ +3.2 _+2.4 _-2.7 so_whats_happening _______________ +4.5 _+3.9 _+2.2 __ +4.8 _+4.2 _ +4.1 ___ -0.5 _ -2.8 _ -1.6 RJay ________________________________ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +2.5 _+3.0 _ +3.0 ___ -3.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 wxallannj ___________________________ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 __ +4.0 _+2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.0 _ -0.7 _ -1.0 Tom ________________________________ +2.8 _+2.7 _+3.1 ___ +5.8 _+2.9 _ +4.8 ___ +3.1 _ +1.3 _ -1.9 hudsonvalley21 _____________________ +2.3 _+2.1 _+3.3 ___ +2.9 _+3.6 _ +3.5 ___ +1.8 _ -0.3 _-0.6 ___ Consensus ____________________+2.3 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___+2.9 _+2.9 _+3.0 __+1.0 _+0.2 _-1.0 BKViking ____________________________ +2.0 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___ +2.5 _+3.2 _+3.0 ___ +1.2 _+0.2 _-1.0 DonSutherland1 _____________________ +2.0 _+1.4 _+1.4 ___ +3.6 _+2.0 _ +3.2 ___ +2.4 _+1.0 _-0.3 Scotty Lightning _____________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ 0.0 wxdude64 ___________________________+0.6 _+0.4 _-0.2 ___ +0.8 _+1.9 _+2.2 ___ +0.8 _+0.9 _-0.7 RodneyS _____________________________+0.4 _+0.7 _+0.6 ___ +1.1 _ -0.4 _ +2.1 ___ +0.5 _-0.3 _ -0.2 ___ Normal ____________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith _________________________ -1.5 _ -1.3 _ -0.2 ___ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 ___ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ +0.3 ___ Persistence __ (Feb 2025) _______ +1.0 _ -0.8 _ -1.1 ___ -1.6 _ +4.1 _ +2.4 ___ -1.5 _ +6.1 _ -3.6 ================= [] =================== Warmest and coldest forecasts color coded (Persistence not incl) ... Normal is colder for IAH. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Anmalies and projections: _____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ (final anomaly) ____ +6.7 _ +4.1 _ +4.0 __ +5.4 _ +3.6 _ +4.6 __ +4.2 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 Snowfall contest was updated to Mar 31 back in Feb section. hudsonvalley21 currently leading in scoring for lowest total errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 __ Final scoring for March 2025 __ scores are based on posted end of March anomalies (previous post) FORECASTER ________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL Tom _________________________ 39 _ 72 _ 82 __ 193 _ 92 _ 86 _ 96 __ 274 _ 467 _ 78 _ 96 _ 62 __ 236 ____ 703 StormchaserChuck1 _________ 77 _ 92 _ 84 __ 253 _ 68 _ 82 _ 84 __234 _487 _ 80 _ 82 _ 46 __208 ____ 695 Maxim _______________________ 96 _ 72 _ 66 __ 234 _ 48 _ 62 _ 82 __ 192 _ 426 _ 82 _ 84 _ 80 __246 ____ 672 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 29 _ 60 _ 86 __ 175 _ 50 _100 _ 78 __ 228 _403 _ 52 _ 64 _ 88 __ 204 ____607 so_whats_happening ________ 73 _ 96 _ 64 __ 233 _ 88 _ 88 _ 90 __ 266 _ 499 _06 _ 14 _ 68 __ 088 ____587 DonSutherland1 ______________23 _ 46 _ 48 __ 117 _ 64 _ 68 _ 72 __ 204 _ 321 _ 64 _ 90 _ 94 __ 248 ____ 569 wxallannj _____________________ 43 _ 68 _ 60 __ 171 _ 72 _ 78 _ 58 __ 208 _ 379 _ 36 _ 56 _ 80 __ 172 ____ 551 ___ Consensus _____________ 29 _ 60 _ 66 __ 155 _ 50 _ 86 _ 68 __204 _ 359 _ 36 _ 74 _ 80 __190 ____549 BKViking ______________________23 _ 60 _ 66 __ 149 _ 42 _ 92 _ 68 __ 202 _ 351 _ 40 _ 74 _ 80 __ 194 ____ 545 RJay __________________________ 43 _ 78 _ 80 __ 201 _ 42 _ 88 _ 68 __ 198 _ 399 _ 00 _ 50 _ 40__ 090 ____ 489 Scotty Lightning ______________ 10 _ 38 _ 30 __ 078 _ 05 _ 58 _ 48 __ 111 _ 189 _ 26 _100_ 100__ 226 ____ 415 wxdude64 ____________________ 06 _ 26 _ 16 __ 048 _ 08 _ 66 _ 52 __ 126 _ 174 _ 32 _ 88 _ 86 __ 206 ____ 380 RodneyS ______________________ 04 _ 32 _ 32 __ 068 _ 14 _ 20 _ 50 __ 084 _ 152 _ 26 _ 64 _ 96 __ 186 ____338 Roger Smith ___________________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 _ 00 _ 48 _ 58 __ 106 _ 122 __ 00 _ 50 _ 94 __ 144 ____266 ___ Normal _____________________ 00 _ 18 _ 20 __ 038 _ 00 _ 28 _ 08 __ 036 _ 074 _ 16 _ 70 _ 100__ 186 ____ 260 ___ Persistence __ (Feb 2025) _ 10 _ 02 _ 00 __ 012 _ 00 _ 90 _ 56 __ 146 _ 158 __ 00 _ 08 _ 28 __ 036 ____194 ================= [] =================== Extreme Forecast Report DCA and DEN _ Warmest forecast (Maxim) wins. IAH _ Tom wins with closest forecast (2nd warmest forecast), Maxim takes a loss. PHX _ Scotty Lightning wins with closest forecast (2nd warmest), Stormchaser Chuck takes a loss. SEA _ Scotty Lightning wins with closest forecast (also Normal), Roger Smith takes a loss. rest of locations did not qualify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 === ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS wxallannj _________________197 _204 _218 __ 619 __ 238 _198 _192 __ 628 _ 1247 __162 _148 _179 __ 489 ___ 1736 ___ Consensus _________201 _210 _202 __613 __204 _254 _192__650 _ 1263 _ 123 _150 _186 __ 459 ___1722 BKViking _________________ 167 _194 _182 __ 543 __ 224 _268 _187 __ 679 _ 1222 __163 _126 _180 __ 469 ___1691 so_whats_happening ____ 215 _216 _164 __ 595 __176 _ 266 _197 __ 639 _ 1234 __ 114 _094 _208__ 416 ___1650 hudsonvalley21 __________ 169 _190 _214 __ 573 __ 144 _ 244 _195 __583 __1156 __150 _130 _184 __ 464 ___1620 Tom ______________________ 189 _186 _194 __ 569 __ 196 _190 _ 212 __ 598 _ 1167 __ 178 _140 _120 __ 438 ___1605 RJay ______________________199 _252 _240 __691 __208 _248 _161 __ 617 _ 1308 __ 069 _074 _128 __271 ___ 1579 wxdude64 ________________180 _194 _188 __ 562 __ 160_ 204 _164 __ 528 _ 1090 __ 135 _ 154 _168 __457___ 1547 RodneyS __________________188 _166 _180 __ 534 __ 142 _162 _ 162 __ 466 _ 1000 __105 _ 188 _238 __531___ 1531 DonSutherland1 __________ 145 _170 _174 __ 489 ___170 _218 _162 __ 550 _ 1039 __ 133 _138 _204 __475 ___1514 Scotty Lightning __________ 204 _182 _140 __ 526 __125 _166 _ 180 __ 508 _ 1076 __ 91 _ 178 _176 __ 445 ___1495 Roger Smith _______________180 _190 _186 __ 556 __ 180 _184 _152 __ 516 __ 1072 __ 60 _094 _187 __341 ____1413 StormchaserChuck _______177 _160 _148 __ 485 __ 92 _ 230 _143 __465 __ 950 __ 137 _134 _127 __ 398 ___ 1348 ___ Normal _________________114 _ 152 _176 __ 442 __ 116 _ 64 _ 75 ___255 __697 __ 124 _170 _186__ 480 ___ 1177 maxim (2/3) _______________180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 __ 96_ 120 _ 82 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _135 __ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 1667 Persistence _______________ 54 _136 _186 __ 376 ___ 98 _ 90 _ 56 __ 244 _ 620 __ 12 _ 08 _126 __ 146 ____ 766 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 1 _____0 Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning _________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___1 __ 1 * __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Feb StormchaserChuck _____ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 15 of 27 ... 7 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0 Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 __ 3-2 ___ 3.0 - 2.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.5 - 0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 ___ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0 Stormchaser Chuck _______ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 ___ 0-1 ____0.0 - 1.0 RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 0-0 ========================================================= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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