2025 forecast contests -- all in one thread, predict and/or discuss national trends

[Roger Smith]

I will go on with contests in 2025, let's keep one annual contest thread ... I will always post on 25th of preceding month any news about additional contests (summer max, snowfall) and scoring will be same format. Readers who might prefer to discuss in general terms can post ideas without being entered in contest, I will only score forecasts in format of departures from 1991-2020 averages at 

______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

... deadlines will be 06z of 1st of each month, and late penalties 1% per half day to 18z 4th, then 1% an hour. (7% + hrs, expiry 8th 15z)

Contest will continue regardless of participation rates even if it turns into a smaller group, as we strive for the elusive new record of 810/900.

A history of this contest (2013-2024) is posted in Dec 2023 contest and will migrate to Dec 2024 at end of contest year. 

Don't forget, no contest threads in 2025, all months will be contained and scored in this one thread. Good luck everyone, and welcome to any new participants. (scroll thru Dec 2024 contest to get an idea of what we do).

 

[hudsonvalley21]

January 2025
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 -1.9       -1.7       -1.5       -1.1      -2.8     -0.4       -1.2      +1.9     +1.4

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 12/27/2024 at 2:47 PM, Roger Smith said:

I will go on with contests in 2025, let's keep one annual contest thread ... I will always post on 25th of preceding month any news about additional contests (summer max, snowfall) and scoring will be same format. Readers who might prefer to discuss in general terms can post ideas without being entered in contest, I will only score forecasts in format of departures from 1991-2020 averages at 

______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

... deadlines will be 06z of 1st of each month, and late penalties 1% per half day to 18z 4th, then 1% an hour. (7% + hrs, expiry 8th 15z)

Contest will continue regardless of participation rates even if it turns into a smaller group, as we strive for the elusive new record of 810/900.

A history of this contest (2013-2024) is posted in Dec 2023 contest and will migrate to Dec 2024 at end of contest year. 

Don't forget, no contest threads in 2025, all months will be contained and scored in this one thread. Good luck everyone, and welcome to any new participants. (scroll thru Dec 2024 contest to get an idea of what we do).

 

If you need any help feel free to reach out via DM's ill post my prediction tomorrow. Happy New Year!

[Roger Smith]

Thanks, my health has improved considerably since November when I was beginning to wonder if I would make it to New Years. In fact it has improved back to how it was before I felt sick. So I should be fine to continue on as usual, hoping we find a full renewal of the glorious twelve (I think) of 2024. 

I feel pretty confident about going earlier than I usually do with 

-3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 _ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5

looks like western ridge eastern trof will lock in for most of month to me, perhaps a bit less pronounced in second half, or I could see even larger departures being possible. 

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 -1.8       -1.5      -1.3        -2.1      -2.4      -1.2     -0.7       +1.4      +2.0

[donsutherland1]

DCA -5.0

NYC -2.5

BOS -1.0

 ORD -2.0

ATL -5.5

IAH -0.7

DEN +0.8

PHX + 3.2

SEA +3.0

[Tom]

DCA -5.7

NYC -4.5

BOS -2.9

 ORD -4.1

ATL -5.9

IAH -1.1

DEN -0.1

PHX + 4.2

SEA +4.1

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -4.1

NYC:  -2.7

BOS:  -1.2

ORD:  -2.3

ATL:  -5.2

IAH:  -0.9

DEN:  -0.5

PHX:  +2.1

SEA:  +2.9

[wxdude64]

Roger,

If you need some help at times, I'd be willing to help. Just give a holler (DM). Appreciate all the time you've put into this all these years!

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

-2.8      -0.9      -0.4       -0.8      -2.8     -0.2       0.9       0.6      -0.3

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-4.4     -3.1    -2.6     -3.7    -5.1      -1.6      -1.2     +2.8    +1.5

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Hopefully I'm not too late. 

January 2025
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 -5.3       -4.4       -3.6       -7      -5          0       +5.7      +6.2     +4.2

[Scotty Lightning]

oops

 

 

 

____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

        -3.0       -3.5      -4.0       -4.5        -2.0   -2.0         2.0      2.5        1.5 

 

[Maxim]

DCA: -2.5

NYC: -1.5

BOS: -1.0

ORD: 0.0

ATL: -2.0

IAH: +1.1

DEN: +2.4

PHX: +3.5

SEA: +1.0

 

[Rjay]

DCA -4.5

 

NYC -3.0

 

BOS -2.0

 

 ORD -2.5

 

ATL -5.0

 

IAH 0.0

 

DEN +1.0

 

PHX + 4.5

 

SEA +4.0

[bkviking]

DCA -4.0

NYC -2.7

BOS -2.2

 ORD -2.4

ATL -4.2

IAH -1.0

DEN +0.9

PHX + 2.2

SEA +3.0

[Roger Smith]

I believe we usually observe a lenient policy on January late penalties so I won't assess any, and feel free to edit forecasts all day 2nd and to whenever I do the table of forecasts on Friday (likely to be early as I do a lot of wx-contest work late evenings, it gets busy for me with 3 contests on different fora but the busy interval is basically over by the 5th and so I just keep at it until it's all done. 

[Roger Smith]

 

__ Forecasts for January 2025 __

 

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

wxallannj __________________________-1.8 _ -1.5 _ -1.3 ___ -2.1 _ -2.4 _ -1.2 ___ -0.7 _ +1.4 _ +2.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________________ -1.9 _ -1.7 _ -1.5 ___ -1.1 __-2.8 _ -0.4 ___ -1.2 _ +1.9 _ +1.4

maxim ____________________________ -2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 ____0.0 _ -2.0 _ +1.1 ___ +2.4 _ +3.5 _ +1.0

RodneyS __________________________-2.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ -0.8 _ -2.8 _-0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _-0.3

Roger Smith ______________________ -3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 __ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 ___ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5

Scotty Lightning __________________ -3.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 __ -4.5 _ -2.0 _ -2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5

BKViking __________________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.2 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _ -1.0 ___ +0.9 _ +2.2 _ +3.0

___ Consensus ____________________-4.0 _ -2.7 _ -2.0 __ -2.4 _ -4.2 _-0.7 ___+0.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.9

wxdude64 ________________________ -4.1 _ -2.7 __ -1.2 __ -2.3 _ -5.2 _ -0.9 ___ -0.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.9

so_whats_happening ______________-4.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.6 __ -3.7 _ -5.1 __ -1.6 ___ -1.2 __ +2.8 _ +1.5

RJay ______________________________ -4.5 _ -3.0 _ -2.0 __ -2.5 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0

DonSutherland1 ___________________ -5.0 _ -2.5 _ -1.0 __ -2.0 _ -5.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.0

StormchaserChuck _______________ -5.3 _ -4.4 _ -3.6 __ -7.0 _ -5.0 __ 0.0 ___ +5.7 _ +6.2 _ +4.2

Tom _______________________________ -5.7 _ -4.5 _ -2.9 __ -4.1 _ -5.9 __-1.1 ____ -0.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1

Persistence (Dec 2024) ___________ +0.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __+1.5 _+1.5 _ +5.7 ___+8.2 _ +6.5 _ +2.0

____________________________

warmest and coldest forecasts color coded; Normal is warmest for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL; coldest for PHX. 

consensus is median forecast (ranked 7 of 13 not incl Normal or Persistence)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rhino16]

Dangit, I told myself I would try to be consistent this year. Got busy and forgot to enter

[Roger Smith]

6 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Dangit, I told myself I would try to be consistent this year. Got busy and forgot to enter

I waived late penalties to earlier Friday so if you want to get started at a very reasonable 5% penalty (by 18z Sat) you can jump in. 

[Maxim]

Seems pretty unclear still how the rest of the month will play out.

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies and projections ...

_____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

___ (anom1-16) ______ -4.2 _-2.3 _ -1.1 ___ -3.8 _-4.9 _-4.1 ___ -4.2 _ +0.9 _-1.0

__ (p anom 1-31) ____ -5.0 _-3.5 _ -2.5 ___ -6.5 _-6.5 _-4.5 ___ -4.0 __ 0.0 _-2.5

Very cold intervals for all locations expected to dominate second half, PHX stays closer to normal and will be near +1.5 before seeing any negatives, IAH possibly too conservative if snow cover develops as it can create -25 anoms for several days, DEN is also going to recover to around -2 before dropping back, and SEA will have a very cold final week and drop a bit further below, despite possibly no snow cover in Puget Sound region (it has not snowed s of Anacortes WA so far in winter 24-25 at low elevations, lots above 1200' ... a little snow was reported in BLI and YVR in Dec, bare now). 

Snowfall contest updates are back in Dec contest thread, probably won't appear here until Feb (keep in mind, all 2025 contests will be in one huge thread going forward -- it's pinned and I will always be in around 25-26 to end of each month to indicate any additional contests).