January 1/2 has gaining interest.

[Typhoon Tip]

I was going to start this thread a couple days ago when asked, but ...alas!  Xmas got in the way.  Happy Holidays...

Moderate interior snow is gaining merit both conceptually, and via deterministic methods, for Jan 1/2 - this is still an evolving scenario but the ceiling isn't very high for now.

( yes there's perhaps a more important signal later toward the 8/9/10th; letting the 'Jester January' thread handle for more comprehensive discussion for now.

Jan 1/2 is not settled in my mind as far as which side of marginality that evolves.   Firstly, the advent of a system in the flow at that time has gained enough signal strength from both teleconnector monitoring, but in the spatial/synoptic handling in the ensemble means to warrant confidence.  The logistics of Pacific wave injections has been problematic, particularly in the GEFs system.  We're now around 6 days out on this, and while the EPS has been stalwart  consistent without deviation for over three consecutive days worth of run cycles means, the recent GEFs are more so onboard - to mention, the 06z GFS showing a fuller commitment to a Miller B, albeit middling circulation/depth ..but this is still an evolving total scenario. 

Edit, the 12z just came around to the colder solution so am opting to use that as it quite frankly makes the point ...

Lastly, this Jan 1/2 is actually the inflection in +d(PNA) that first appeared in the telecon prognostics some  8 or 10 days ago.   I realize that folks were focused on the 6/7/8 period. but frankly that was the 'intra modal' signal, and those tend to lose out in time... as the modeling period shortens; I suspect the recent attenuation, with emphasis repositioning out toward the latter signal around the 9th is the better fit - hint hint, that's quite a signal out there.  

**One aspect that I think needs to be considered is that altho the NAO phase may or may not be spatially represented in the modeling depictions, subtleties in the behavior of the modeling cinema bear suggestion that an influence lurks.  There is/has been some backward exertion in the field among the various modeling system when attempting to impinge N-E of 80/40.   This opens the suggestion to an east tendency in future guidance... I saw the 06z GFS ( oper.) do exactly that ... i think this event is for real.  I also think there is a medium potential ( so not great mind you - ) that it has a chance to be a 'collapsing to the coast' type of event - it's been a long time since we've observed a scenerio like that, and it's not a major ordeal.  But it could be a back half  1/3 or even 1/2 cyro profile, as dynamic height falls associated with a period of better deepening as it is exiting, work over the top of modest but crucial chilly marginal air mass mid way thru and onward.. 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

I'm thinking a light interior event for NoP with better accumulation for coastal NH and NNE

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[dryslot]

Its gaining some legs, We watch for now.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro was still pretty warm. But other guidance has definitely cooled a good bit in the last 24-36 hours. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Euro was still pretty warm. But other guidance has definitely cooled a good bit in the last 24-36 hours. 

Euro also has it inside vs off the coast

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[Damage In Tolland]

Certainly had that look of rain turning to heavy wet snow as it bombs offshore. Good trends today with the block helping  

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro was still pretty warm. But other guidance has definitely cooled a good bit in the last 24-36 hours. 

yeah.   you know i'm not sold and/or trying to sell a cold solution outright ..but this scenario has the hallmark of a coastal collapsing mix line thing.  it's a ways out there at 130 hours to be so precise - of course.  but this is a very negative tilt system, which means we rotate the cyclone model aloft some 45 deg, and that implicates a cold N flow with still some lift going on - has the advantage of chilling the column late.  

[ROOSTA]

And so begins Nor'easter Season.
Time to cash-in now, as the next month or evolves the season depends on it...or it will blow dead monkeys.
Has a good look. We track, with everything on the line.

**I'D LIKE TO WIN THE MEGA-MILLIONS TOO.** 

[Typhoon Tip]

18z GFS with a higher side moderate event from hfd to ash out of this potential event

... clear generation of CCB/mechanics there spanning 6 to 9 hours, possible even ending with cob webs off the eaves if right

[Typhoon Tip]

interesting uppers there...   we're still inserting wind max for some time after main cyclogen and pass off and it's forcing an inverted trough and squally snows to lag back for a considerable length of time.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Each run getting snowier and snowier for NYD

[CoastalWx]

Low level temps are putrid

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Each run getting snowier and snowier for NYD

it may be more nyd afternoon into the evening hours.  also, 33 .. 34 type snow event so elevations probably helping.  looks like you'd do well there, from about where you are through the worcester hills/monadnocks into s nh.   se of that axis is probably cat paws over to big aggregates before ending.  but along the axis described, that could be burst lasting 5 or 6 hours at moderate rates.  

it's just the 18z, but since in principle it's decent enough continuity from the 12z it's a likeable trend for y'all winter enthusiasts.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Low level temps are putrid

How many beers deep you?

[CoastalWx]

I don’t know. That low is tucked in and H7 fronto is well north for dynamic cooling maybe ORH county 1k spots could pull an inch or two? It’s barely -1C at 925.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it may be more nyd afternoon into the evening hours.  also, 33 .. 34 type snow event so elevations probably helping.  looks like you'd do well there, from about where you are through the worcester hills/monadnocks into s nh.   se of that axis is probably cat paws over to big aggregates before ending.  but along the axis described, that could be burst lasting 5 or 6 hours at moderate rates.  

it's just the 18z, but since in principle it's decent enough continuity from the 12z it's a likeable trend for y'all winter enthusiasts.

Loving the trends . Hopefully they continue so coastal folks can take part 

[CoastalWx]

850 is 0C to the MA border.

[CoastalWx]

Trailing s/w actually is more interesting with some squalls perhaps along the trough passing through. 

[Typhoon Tip]

yeeeah wouldn't worry about gfs 2-ms or even the 950 mb to sfc interval at this range, not considering that wholesale synoptic evolution. 

that low is moving along climo path with ( at least in this guidance ) a sufficiently cool 1300' thickness - also probably an underestimated hygroscopic cooling factor, laid in from the 30th system backside air mass. 

wind backs nne in the interior in that and any marginal sfc air will turn blue with lift over top, forced by negative tilt causing bend back frontogenic .. etc

these aren't certainties... no.  we're just talking my interpretation of those synoptics.    also, i'd note that marginal 'blue snow' scenarios tend to look that way in the low levels at this modeling time range.  the isothermal sounding isn't seen until it almost happening.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeeeah wouldn't worry about gfs 2-ms or even the 950 mb to sfc interval at this range, not considering that wholesale synoptic evolution. 

that low is moving along climo path with ( at least in this guidance ) a sufficiently cool 1300' thickness - also probably an underestimated hygroscopic cooling factor, laid in from the 30th system backside air mass. 

wind backs nne in the interior in that and any marginal sfc air will turn blue with lift forced by negative tilt causing bend back frontogenic. 

these aren't certainties... no.  we're just talking my interpretation of those synoptics.    also, i'd note that marginal 'blue snow' scenarios tend to look that way in the low levels at this modeling time range.  the isothermal sounding isn't seen until it almost happening.

18z gfs to me was more latitude based. I’d want to be in the monads vs Tollandtucky. 850 0C won’t cut it when deep lift is north. 

[CoastalWx]

Now if that went south, sure. But putrid airmass with that track.

[Typhoon Tip]

agreed on the trailing vorticity feed tho - mentioned that above too. 

forcing an inverted trough and squalling

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed on the trailing vorticity feed tho - mentioned that above too. 

forcing an inverted trough and squalling

Let’s get this whole thing south 

[Typhoon Tip]

we have a difference of opinion on that.  as is... the hills of n ct up to the monads and across se nh is a colder signal - marginally so.. but I'm also not taking this model literally

I'm correcting based on plenty of precedence and pure experience with that sort of look.  the chartage painting blue qpf is more of warning really.  heh. 

we'll see.  

it won't take any warming or that interpretation doesn't fly - no issue with that...

[CoastalWx]

I’m talking verbatim. That’s a terrible airmass right through 850. It’s like 0C at 850 before it starts way up into NH. Now if we could curl H5 underneath and close off H7 then I would agree snow could sneak in further south. But as it is, all the good forcing and latent cooling needed moves into NH. It probably ends a a coating of slop, maybe more up by ORH county. 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m talking verbatim. That’s a terrible airmass right through 850. It’s like 0C at 850 before it starts way up into NH. Now if we could curl H5 underneath and close off H7 then I would agree snow could sneak in further south. But as it is, all the good forcing and latent cooling needed moves into NH. It probably ends a a coating of slop, maybe more up by ORH county. 

Regular GFS ptype vs 0.125° ptype. The high res shows how messy it is.

[Snowcrazed71]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m talking verbatim. That’s a terrible airmass right through 850. It’s like 0C at 850 before it starts way up into NH. Now if we could curl H5 underneath and close off H7 then I would agree snow could sneak in further south. But as it is, all the good forcing and latent cooling needed moves into NH. It probably ends a a coating of slop, maybe more up by ORH county. 

I'm perfectly fine with it being a nothing Burger. I'm flying out at 6:20 in the morning on Thursday, January 2nd. I'm going to my cousin's memorial for his mom in Florida and I don't want to miss it. But I'm back Sunday the 5th and looking forward to seeing where we had had the following week

[Prismshine Productions]

Regular GFS ptype vs 0.125° ptype. The high res shows how messy it is.

Oooo I get sleet, fun sledding weather

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[Damage In Tolland]

We’ll see what Tip thinks today

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ll see what Tip thinks today

She's a rainer for us! 

At least we have something solid to look forward to ( as long as nothing crashes as we get closer ) after the 6th.