Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

There is another cold shot behind this one(that is new).  

[Carvers Gap]

Coldest run I have ever seen in all my years following wx models and this hobby.  There is something to be said for that.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

There is another cold shot behind this one(that is new).  

Yeah it's just loading up two more TPV lobes to sling our way. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Coldest run I have ever seen in all my years following wx models and this hobby.  There is something to be said for that.  

wow 

[Carvers Gap]

I have my doubts that is correct(likely error early on), but that is how you break the all-time record low.  SW VA had a low of almost -18F on that run.  

[Carvers Gap]

There are a few runs where I maybe say...that might be right on the edge of what I don't want to see from winter.  That is flirting with it.  Ice followed by that type of cold would be rough.  That is a 5 day map.  It is at a range that is probably going to change as it is d10-15(plenty of cold inside of d10!).  34 degree departures over 5 days is incredible.  The concern is multiple models are showing this type of cold at one time or another.  Normally, I would just do a forum accums map.  However, I know we have some Midwest folks who drop in, so I will widen the scope a bit.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

A few GEFS members show some snow for the 6th (before the big storm the OP showed at 18z):

[1234snow]

That was certainly the craziest run I have ever saw in my time on these forums. You had flakes flying from Louisiana to Pennsylvania at the 252 timestamp. Huge precip shield.

I agree with Carvers though that the trough in the west was too sharp and probably held back energy somewhat. That might be totally gone on the next run at 0z.

[Daniel Boone]

52 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is a monster.

Remember, I called it first, lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

D8-14 CPC analogs....Jan 1977 double weighted.  Jan 1985 triple weighted.  50% of the analogs are from the two coldest winters of my lifetime.  Throw in Dec 1995(lead up to 96), and 60% of analogs are winters I would be afraid to use in a seasonal forecast! I thought about 95-96, but put it back on the shelf for retired HOF analogs.  CPC is gonna go big or go home!

19850118
20001227
19770116
19810103
19850109
19850123
20001222
19770121
20070125
19951228

[codfishsnowman]

12 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

That was certainly the craziest run I have ever saw in my time on these forums. You had flakes flying from Louisiana to Pennsylvania at the 252 timestamp. Huge precip shield.

I agree with Carvers though that the trough in the west was too sharp and probably held back energy somewhat. That might be totally gone on the next run at 0z.

Sounds a little like February 1899

[John1122]

For those of you who don't remember/aren't old enough, welcome to 1977. 

How cold was '77, with last year's 2 week deep freeze the average January temperature here was 32. Lows were in the 20 below range in '77.  Jan 77's entire month average imby was 19.5. Like that run, well over 20 inches of snow fell in Jan '77. Snow was on the ground for 6 weeks. 

Didn't have weather models back then. Just Margie Ison. But this is what that would have been like looking into January. 

[Jed33]

38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

D8-14 CPC analogs....Jan 1977 double weighted.  Jan 1985 triple weighted.  50% of the analogs are from the two coldest winters of my lifetime.  Throw in Dec 1995(lead up to 96), and 60% of analogs are winters I would be afraid to use in a seasonal forecast! I thought about 95-96, but put it back on the shelf for retired HOF analogs.  CPC is gonna go big or go home!

19850118
20001227
19770116
19810103
19850109
19850123
20001222
19770121
20070125
19951228

I don’t recall the 12-28-1995 that well. The others I know. I know it was really January 96 when it all broke loose. I do remember some clippers and other light snows in Dec 95 though. Maybe someone else can elaborate on it though. The others are as solid as you’ll ever get!

[John1122]

9 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

I don’t recall the 12-28-1995 that well. The others I know. I know it was really January 96 when it all broke loose. I do remember some clippers and other light snows in Dec 95 though. Maybe someone else can elaborate on it though. The others are as solid as you’ll ever get!

Cold and mostly dry on 12-28-95. Low 30s, upper singles, lower teens for lows. 1/2 inch of snow on 12-29-95. 

[Jed33]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Cold and mostly dry on 12-28-95. Low 30s, upper singles, lower teens for lows. 1/2 inch of snow on 12-29-95. 

And it may be bc I was living in Memphis in 95-96. It was cold there but we were fringed by all of the bigger snows the entire winter. Still managed to pick up a couple inches a couple times in Dec and Jan.

[Carvers Gap]

25 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

I don’t recall the 12-28-1995 that well. The others I know. I know it was really January 96 when it all broke loose. I do remember some clippers and other light snows in Dec 95 though. Maybe someone else can elaborate on it though. The others are as solid as you’ll ever get!

Interesting to see them pull a lead up analog.  The 18z GFS implied that another cold shot might follow the big one. That potential next cold shot would be sliding across new snow and wouldn’t have to overcome warm temps.    Big hitter analogs.  Jan-Feb 96 in Kingsport might have seen 35-40” of snow.  Holston might know that number for sure.  I kept coming home from Knoxville to giant piles of snow in the big box store parking lots - like two stories tall.  Official snow records for that timeframe are dubious at best.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Holston might know that number for sure.

I vaguely remember the radar on old school TWC filling in from CSV toward TRI for the blizzard of 96. 6" overnight and then freezing drizzle the next day, followed by 6 more inches of snow. I remember being able to make snow tunnels under the ice layer. Days of tubing and sledding down this hill:

snow plowed on the sides and compacted to create almost a bobsled track. 

KPT schools were closed for a week. Then a bigger snow hit in Feb.,  18" for me IMBY at that time. 

I think there was one more storm, but I don't remember that one. I wish I had access to radar data or could figure out the ERA5 data to refresh my memory. 

[tnweathernut]

27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Interesting to see them pull a lead up analog.  The 18z GFS implied that another cold shot might follow the big one. That potential next cold shot would be sliding across new snow and wouldn’t have to overcome warm temps.    Big hitter analogs.  Jan-Feb 96 in Kingsport might have seen 35-40” of snow.  Holston might know that number for sure.  I kept coming home from Knoxville to giant piles of snow in the big box store parking lots - like two stories tall.  Official snow records for that timeframe are dubious at best.

I remembered it as 8-10” with a brief break, followed by another 8-10” in JC.  I didn’t measure through my college years, but it was as much snow as i had ever seen and it stuck around for as long as any snow in my 32 years in the TriCities Region.

[Matthew70]

I just hope if this is confirmed in next few days what models are showing.  That people take it seriously & start preparing.  These types of temps are not anything to play with.  Plumbing needs to be insulated.  Cars prepared for dangerous travel.  Rolling blackouts very possible.  All those living in tents need to make sure they have sufficient shelter.  I love winter but this could be one brutal stretch to witness in our lifetimes.  Do I think it will happen.  Cold air is coming that’s a good bet.  How cold.  That’s the question.  Anything is possible & we have seen a lot of crazy things with the wx lately.  

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

For those of you who don't remember/aren't old enough, welcome to 1977. 

How cold was '77, with last year's 2 week deep freeze the average January temperature here was 32. Lows were in the 20 below range in '77.  Jan 77's entire month average imby was 19.5. Like that run, well over 20 inches of snow fell in Jan '77. Snow was on the ground for 6 weeks. 

Didn't have weather models back then. Just Margie Ison. But this is what that would have been like looking into January. 

I'd rather forget 78. That was worse than anything I recall with 77 unless I have my years mixed. I was living in NEPA at the time. Our septic line froze. They were digging a for a water line in one of the new developments above Scranton. They were finding the frost down as far as 14 feet! 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

For those of you who don't remember/aren't old enough, welcome to 1977. 

How cold was '77, with last year's 2 week deep freeze the average January temperature here was 32. Lows were in the 20 below range in '77.  Jan 77's entire month average imby was 19.5. Like that run, well over 20 inches of snow fell in Jan '77. Snow was on the ground for 6 weeks. 

Didn't have weather models back then. Just Margie Ison. But this is what that would have been like looking into January. 

Yep. Margie was who I watched as well. She did a great Job.

[iluvsnow]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

There are a few runs where I maybe say...that might be right on the edge of what I don't want to see from winter.  That is flirting with it.  Ice followed by that type of cold would be rough.  That is a 5 day map.  It is at a range that is probably going to change as it is d10-15(plenty of cold inside of d10!).  34 degree departures over 5 days is incredible.  The concern is multiple models are showing this type of cold at one time or another.  Normally, I would just do a forum accums map.  However, I know we have some Midwest folks who drop in, so I will widen the scope a bit.

 

Yep....in Ohio and reading your forum tonight is better than any John Grisham novel. Unlike his posits.I hope it's true.....total weather porn!

[BNAwx]

I was only 5 & 6 years old in ‘77 and ‘78 so I don’t remember much else than missing alot of school.

I vividly remember ‘85.  Got down to -22 in Cookeville.  Our pipes froze and mom went under the house with a hairdryer to try and unfreeze them.  It was so cold, the extension cord froze and broke into pieces.  We relied on kerosene heaters at the time so not every room was warm.  Thank the Lord for electric blankets back then…. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Jed33 said:

I don’t recall the 12-28-1995 that well. The others I know. I know it was really January 96 when it all broke loose. I do remember some clippers and other light snows in Dec 95 though. Maybe someone else can elaborate on it though. The others are as solid as you’ll ever get!

We had a clean pass 7 inch Storm Dec 10 95. It moved ene and Roanoke got 10" from it. We had 1 inch on Christmas Morning that Year from a rain to snow changeover predawn. 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro AIFS is less extreme and more reasonable in terms of temps...That snowstorm in Florida?  Maybe less reasonable.

 

[John1122]

1 hour ago, KChuck said:

I'd rather forget 78. That was worse than anything I recall with 77 unless I have my years mixed. I was living in NEPA at the time. Our septic line froze. They were digging a for a water line in one of the new developments above Scranton. They were finding the frost down as far as 14 feet! 

That was likely 1977. 78 was very snowy but not terribly cold, at least in January. Albany, NY was something like -4 as was State College. In 1977 both those were -12 to -14. 

There was a day of near -20 temps in the N Penn, Central NY areas in January 1977. 

[ottorec]

In 77 I was a student at UT and lived off campus. Remember walking from commuter lot , where the basketball arena is now, to the Hill during that frigid time. Had a Professor who said no excuses were accepted if we couldn’t make it to class. Had a major exam and drove to school and trudged to the Hill and he was a no show. Wasn’t a fun quarter that winter.

[John1122]

Another run, another solution on the 00z. It likely can't get better than the last run but we'll see where it goes after thus first storm passes. The cold is still plunging. 

[John1122]

The Euro remains ugly with a major cutter.  It did take a step south and east from 12z when it cut through Iowa. 

[John1122]

Euro about to have a round 2 that wasn't there at 12z.