Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Matthew70]

Crazy to think what many of us have already experienced in our lifetimes.  Why not add to it lol.  Cold is almost guaranteed at this point.  Just how cold & how long is the question.  Hopefully people that are living in tents will get the help they need.  Now is the time to start preparing for the possibility of dangerous cold & possible winter weather. 

[jaxjagman]

I dunno,surely could be wrong but the MJO getting into Africa in a few days,still seems to me its gonna hit a ERW maybe and stall out into the IO,this is what the CFS is showing which in turn is causing destructive interference with the MJO signal,think the EMON is showing this today because it kills the signal for days in the heart of the COD

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS held something back on this run....flow is much flatter.  This might get it done.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah, its got some room to grow. 

[Carvers Gap]

At 222, that might actually be very good but I fear the GFS is making its usual error of holding energy back - not a bad thing this run, but maybe not right.  CMC was similar though.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looking good through hr 231 

[Carvers Gap]

Sucks to see it make this (likely)error, because the rest of the run is gonna be meaningless.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think this will be a good run. 

[Carvers Gap]

It is likely gonna be good, and it is likely gonna be wrong.  That holding energy back over the Four Corners drives me crazy.  Hopefully the ensemble will have some value.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Sucks to see it make this (likely)error, because the rest of the run is gonna be meaningless.

At least it kicks it out and doesn't totally cut it off, but yeah it could be in error. Kind of hope it isn't though lol. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think it will be pretty epic, but I was just thinking earlier I didn't want epic at hr 240+ 

But some of the ensemble members in the GEFS and EPS had similar solutions at 12z. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

At least it kicks it out and doesn't totally cut it off, but yeah it could be in error. Kind of hope it isn't though lol. 

However, it isn't completely without precedent.  It could happen.  Big storms happen when systems leave something back.  One thing I noticed is the initial low doesn't cut to Michigan.  It cut to southern Ohio this run.  I suspect we get back to the 6z solution.  The GFS has been really too wound-up at this range for weeks and tends to flatten things out bigly as time goes on.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Somebody in the Mid Atlantic sub forum is going to need a change of pants after this run finishes 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think it will be pretty epic, but I was just thinking earlier I didn't want epic at hr 240+ 

But some of the ensemble members in the GEFS and EPS had similar solutions at 12z. 

That is gonna be huge.  LOL.  I really hate it did that over the Four Corners...ugh.

[Carvers Gap]

That is a monster.

[Carvers Gap]

Might lights are flickering at the thought.  LOL

[Carvers Gap]

Man.

[Carvers Gap]

That is just sick.  Another monster solutions by the GFS.......wow.   I don't think it is right, but I wish it was.  However, modeling is trying to sniff something out in this timeframe.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The progression at least in terms of precip type over TRI reminds me a heck of a lot of Jan 96. In Kingsport, we had 6 inches of snow followed by some freezing drizzle, and then 6 inches of powder. 

[Carvers Gap]

Folks, I watched The Day After Tomorrow last week.  That might have been the ticket.

[Carvers Gap]

GFS has dropped 3 BIG runs out of the last 6.  Clipper incoming after that big storm.

[Reb]

thank your sir, can I have another? 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Reb said:

thank your sir, can I have another? 

I think there might be one right behind it.  LOL.

[jaxjagman]

Be kinda shocked if we dont get a sytem somewhere as active as East Asia is

[Wurbus]

Wow.....This is the "warm" nose I can get behind!

[Carvers Gap]

At 306, I think the wxbell algorithm just couldn't take it anymore.  Rain(green color) failing into single digits.

[Carvers Gap]

Lights are out in E TN on that run.  

[Jed33]

Wow! That’s really quite something to behold! I have watched the weather for a long time and followed it since the 80’s. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a run like that! And it’s not done! The polar vortex is literally coming into the upper south in these runs!

Of course in 1985 we didn’t have pretty model runs with output to see it, but I imagine this is what it would have looked like.

[Carvers Gap]

Man.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think something broke on the COD precip type output too:

Just random blobs of snow with the TPV lol.