Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[matt9697]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Just tossing the snow maps as an outlier(and they may not be an outlier...but just at this longer range, I will), take a look at those temp maps.  Those look like 3 hour increments.  I assume the include afternoon temps.  Take a look at how long the 2mtemps(surface basically) stay below freezing at both locations.  Look at the lows at TRI.  The 6z Euro AIFS just posted similar numbers.  For me right now, the cold is the big story.  Precip will come into focus as we get closer.  Just and insane run all the way around.  I suspect we see some warm-ups in front of these strong cold fronts FWIW, but if that were to verify...that is pretty rough.

Yeah, I know a couple of years ago, TVA had to do rolling blackouts here around Nashville because demand was through the roof, I can't help but think this could cause a similar setup. 

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Yeah, I know a couple of years ago, TVA had to do rolling blackouts here around Nashville because demand was through the roof, I can't help but think this could cause a similar setup. 

None of that is a certainty yet, but the likelihood of severe cold is increasing.  The level of severity is very much a topic for debate.  About every third run, we see a moderating trend when compared to previous runs.  Ice is 100% what I don't want to see.  The way this trough is aligned, we are on the bottom/left side of the "U" in the trough so to speak - meaning warm air advection will likely attack that area.  I would rather "warm-up-and-rain" than "warm-up-a-little-and-ice."  After Helene, I can pretty much say having power out for extended amounts of time is not fun, and I didn't have it even remotely as bad as many(they lost it for weeks/months...ours was just days).  Our power went out during those cold shots that you mentioned...I don't know if they were rolling blackouts or the grid just couldn't handle the demand - I never really knew the cause.

[matt9697]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

None of that is a certainty yet, but the likelihood of severe cold is increasing.  The level of severity is very much a topic for debate.  About every third run, we see a moderating trend when compared to previous runs.  Ice is 100% what I don't want to see.  The way this trough is aligned, we are on the bottom/left side of the "U" in the trough so to speak - meaning warm air advection will likely attack that area.  I would rather "warm-up-and-rain" than "warm-up-a-little-and-ice."  After Helene, I can pretty much say having power out for extended amounts of time is not fun, and I didn't have it even remotely as bad as many(they lost it for weeks/months...ours was just days).  Our power went out during those cold shots that you mentioned...I don't know if they were rolling blackouts or the grid just couldn't handle the demand - I never really knew the cause.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/2022/12/23/why-tennessee-valley-authority-ordered-rolling-blackouts-in-nashville/69754538007/

[Carvers Gap]

Again, we look at that 6z GFS, but the 0z Euro was nuts.  Look at this 500 sigma.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS out to almost 300 is just frigid.  The 12z CMC looks like it is about to go where the 6z GFS did(run will end before it gets there, but it likely would have gotten there in terms of winter storm potential).

[Carvers Gap]

I kid you not, the 12z GFS is cold enough to snow in Florida if it can get some precip in there.

[Carvers Gap]

Give me that 12z CMC setup all day, every day (during January).  The 12z GFS is flirting with the 6z Euro AIFS.

[Carvers Gap]

It is kind of weird, but we may need the in-between warm-ups to maybe have a shot at snow.  These successive cold fronts are powerful and mean business at 12z.  

[jaxjagman]

Headed in the right direction anyways.GEFS looks even better than yesterday

[Holston_River_Rambler]

29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I kid you not, the 12z GFS is cold enough to snow in Florida if it can get some precip in there.

There's a frame with ocean effect snow in the middle Keys. 

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

There's a frame with ocean effect snow in the middle Keys. 

LOL. When it is snowing 90 miles north of Cuba, that is an exceptionally cold run.  I might give up a little bit of snow if I can say that in my lifetime it snowed in Key West.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Well, Euro is running on Weatherbell, let's see what the wheel of NWP spins out for us now. 

[Carvers Gap]

18F at Lake O and 23F in Miami for that run.  43 in Key West would be just two degrees off of their all time record low which was set in 1886 and also in 1981.  (I had no idea that all time record lows were set when I lived in Florida.  All I knew is all of the orange groves in Central Florida were hit really hard.). Crazy cold GFS run.

[Carvers Gap]

Nothing will top the Key West snow map by Holston, but this is mind boggling for a run.  Real feels....below zero wind chills into the Panhandle.  Low single digits in the land of the mouse.

 

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

18F at Lake O and 23F in Miami for that run.  43 in Key West would be just two degrees off of their all time record low which was set in 1886 and also in 1981.  (I had no idea that all time record lows were set when I lived in Florida.  All I knew is all of the orange groves in Central Florida were hit really hard.). Crazy cold GFS run.

https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2016/01/cold-and-snow-in-miami-in-1977-nearly-wipes-out-citrus/

I was living in Jacksonville but was younger,i thought i recalled it did snow in Miami

[Carvers Gap]

Not to be outdone by the EURO AIFS...

[Carvers Gap]

At 219, the GEFS has the snowstorm.

[Carvers Gap]

Last post for a bit, the cutter at 204....when it is strong, the cold rushes in, and the run is insanely cold.  When it is slightly weaker(CMC), the setup for a major winter storm over the Upper South is present.  

[Carvers Gap]

One last post, the Euro may still get it done actually.  So far, it is colder than the GFS run.

[jaxjagman]

GEFS doesnt show the blocking the Euro has.Euro looks pretty nice into Greenland, Baffin into the Hudson Strait.Who knows who will be right

[John1122]

Not a fan of those 12z runs. Hopefully no kind of trend there. Dry cold is the worst. All the bills and none of the fun.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro wasn't too far off IMO, suppressed, but not as bad as the GFS dropping a TPV over the outer banks. There have been some wild ensemble runs lately, I'll post once EPS members are in and we'll see what that looks like. 

[jaxjagman]

16 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not a fan of those 12z runs. Hopefully no kind of trend there. Dry cold is the worst. All the bills and none of the fun.

That would be depressing to see more snow off the Florida coast than what we would get,what the GFS shows,but its still to far out to really believe

[Holston_River_Rambler]

First 12z Ensemble means:

EPS:

GEFS:

 

Canadian ENS:

 

EPS members:

EPS members (2):

GEFS members:

CMC members:

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

First 12z Ensemble means:

EPS:

GEFS:

 

Canadian ENS:

 

EPS members:

EPS members (2):

GEFS members:

CMC members:

I was about to say...when you get a robust EPS snow mean like that(and that far south), pretty good signal even if I hadn't seen any other modeling today.  And if it falls in the Jan 7-20 window, it likely isn't going anywhere.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

I was about to say...when you get a robust EPS snow mean like that(and that far south), pretty good signal even if I hadn't seen any other modeling today.  And if it falls in the Jan 7-20 window, it likely isn't going anywhere.

We're the Keys source region!

[Carvers Gap]

18 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

We're the Keys source region!

Can you imagine the thread title options for that event?  

...The EPS gets the snow mean into portions of Central Florida.  

[Carvers Gap]

And at this range, ensembles are the way to go....lots of good options at this range.  Really for the time frames that we are looking at, the deterministic model output is really just one member of the ensemble.   Probably gonna be just some outright crazy runs for the next few days.

[Carvers Gap]

If those ensembles are anywhere close to being correct, record lows are likely going to fall.  Getting a record low in mid January is tough!  

[jaxjagman]

The Euro would be quite impressive  with a long stretch of days even without temps moderating above freezing,we dont see that to often here.Even at the end of the run it shows a +PNA/-AO