Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I will add that for people in SE TN, this pattern has the ability to deliver if we can get anything going in the STJ.  I know we don't get to talk snow for that areas as much lately....but we could see snow well south of where we normally see it if the cold verifies.  This is the worst of the 7d 500 ensembles for January 4-11.  That way I am not cherry picking.  Normally, I would cherry pick this! 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Actually, models started taking more of the '96 look couple days ago and definitely showing it now. Systems in '96 Travelled from the Pac NW southeastward under the Block and would phase with southern branch or miller b to miller A transfer as touched on few days ago. That's basically what this looks like. If realized we're in business !

I was thinking that this also reminds me a lot of 14-15.  I am sure that probably gets me into trouble with ENSO(opposite of now), but just kind of has that look.....

[Matthew70]

30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is just nasty....

 

Well if this happens this would be 3 winters in a row.  Landscaping is going to take a hit again if we don’t have any snow on the ground to help protect. 

[John1122]

I saw a Jan 1981 analog yesterday. That was a cold month that kicked off with temps crashing the first 5 days, a 1.5-4 inch snow around the 6th/7th, then we froze for two weeks but it was dry. Warmed up to AN around Jan 25th  but winter came back to end the month with a 4 to 8 inch event on the 30th. 

There was snow on the ground here from 1-7 to 1-21 1981. We had 6 nights of 1, 0 or below 0 lows. One day of 40s in those two weeks, every other day was 30s or 20s for highs, but we had 1/2 inch of snow on the 13th and very light rain on the day it got to the 40s. Total precipitation for those two weeks of cold was .08 inches after the snow on the 7th. 

[Carvers Gap]

I will use the EPS which has lighter snows, but here are some of the windows I am looking at(surely not all verify, but here it is for score keeping purposes.).

 

Chance for upslope at higher elevations.

 

Northern stream pulse...

 

Could be severe or could be ice or could be rain to snow or snow to rain.  Choose your own adventure book right here.

Best chance....

Another best chance.  WAA?

 

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I saw a Jan 1981 analog yesterday. That was a cold month that kicked off with temps crashing the first 5 days, a 1.5-4 inch snow around the 6th/7th, then we froze for two weeks but it was dry. Warmed up to AN around Jan 25th  but winter came back to end the month with a 4 to 8 inch event on the 30th. 

There was snow on the ground here from 1-7 to 1-21 1981. We had 6 nights of 1, 0 or below 0 lows. One day of 40s in those two weeks, every other day was 30s or 20s for highs, but we had 1/2 inch of snow on the 13th and very light rain on the day it got to the 40s. Total precipitation for those two weeks of cold was .08 inches after the snow on the 7th. 

I lived in Florida at the time...lived with the Philistines for a couple of years while my dad helped build EPCOT as an accountant for the mouse.  For a winter lover, it was purgatory, but free tix were nice.  Anyway, did Knoxville's ice storm occur during that year or the year before?  The orange groves in Orlando froze both winters I was down there - wiped them completely out.

Tenn beat Bama for the first time in my lifetime while I lived down there.  When I lived in Knoxville prior, my next door neighbor was a Bama fan.  I still feel a missed opportunity to rub it in some.

[Carvers Gap]

25 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Well if this happens this would be 3 winters in a row.  Landscaping is going to take a hit again if we don’t have any snow on the ground to help protect. 

Yeah, man.  I was thinking about you.  Those wind chills went scorched earth on my yard. 

[BNAwx]

Yep.  The Euro Ensembles look pretty impressive.  Hard not to get a little excited when you see that kind of snow mean setting up.

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I lived in Florida at the time...lived with the Philistines for a couple of years while my dad helped build EPCOT as an accountant for the mouse.  For a winter lover, it was purgatory, but free tix were nice.  Anyway, did Knoxville's ice storm occur during that year or the year before?  The orange groves in Orlando froze both winters I was down there - wiped them completely out.

Tenn beat Bama for the first time in my lifetime while I lived down there.  When I lived in Knoxville prior, my next door neighbor was a Bama fan.  I still feel a missed opportunity to rub it in some.

The ice storm was Jan 1982. A very severe winter month in and of itself. 

[Coach B]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The ice storm was Jan 1982. A very severe winter month in and of itself. 

For some reason I don't remember 82 at all. Looks like much of the mid-state got 4-6" with four different days with below 0 lows. The highest temp at Nashville on the two days preceding the snow was 23 and only got to 22 the day of the storm. Must have been powder that hung around for awhile.

[matt9697]

6 minutes ago, Coach B said:

For some reason I don't remember 82 at all. Looks like much of the mid-state got 4-6" with four different days with below 0 lows. The highest temp at Nashville on the two days preceding the snow was 23 and only got to 22 the day of the storm. Must have been powder that hung around for awhile.

Its been a while since we have had any appreciable ice in the middle TN area - certainly not hoping for any but just pointing that out. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I was thinking that this also reminds me a lot of 14-15.  I am sure that probably gets me into trouble with ENSO(opposite of now), but just kind of has that look.....

The positive NAO then is about the only visual difference as far as North America from what I can tell.

[John1122]

16 minutes ago, Coach B said:

For some reason I don't remember 82 at all. Looks like much of the mid-state got 4-6" with four different days with below 0 lows. The highest temp at Nashville on the two days preceding the snow was 23 and only got to 22 the day of the storm. Must have been powder that hung around for awhile.

That frigidity is why the 1982 ice storm was so incredible in the Eastern half of the area. The temps were ice box cold leading up to it, there was snow on the ground when the ice hit and it had been well below zero.  Nashville was below zero before the snow event on the 13th and well below, -11 a few days after it.

[Carvers Gap]

Today's Euro Weeklies' snapshots....

 

[Carvers Gap]

And the Weeklies do try to put the trough into the Mountain West towards the end of January.  The interesting piece is that heights don't build and hold over the SE.  That implies plenty of push from cold even if the trough lands in the front range of the Mountain West.

[John1122]

It may end okay, but I want nothing to do with this run of the GFS. It's singing a story as old as time for this area. Rains, gets cold and dry, warms up and rains, gets cold and dry.

[John1122]

The GFS also ended poorly, the exact opposite of 12z.  12z was super blocking and cross polar flow. 18z is a major PNA flip, AO flip etc.  The GFS has been having these issues for the last week or more. 

[Carvers Gap]

Does the 18z run looks significantly different in wxbell than it does on Tropical Tidbits?  It had a huge winter storm at the end of it on wxbell?  It also had a marginal winter event earlier which doesn’t look the same on TT.  I am out an about and tough to tell on an iPhone.

[Carvers Gap]

wxbell algorithms….

18z GFS deterministic…
Jan 1, 3, 7, 10…light snow, light snow, ice/rain/snow, snow

Plateau gets 6-11” total Kuchera with eastern valley locals at 2-6” total

18z ensemble.  
Similar events and similar totals though slightly less than the 12z maxed out run

 

 

 

[John1122]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Does the 18z run looks significantly different in wxbell than it does on Tropical Tidbits?  It had a huge winter storm at the end of it on wxbell?  It also had a marginal winter event earlier which doesn’t look the same on TT.  I am out an about and tough to tell on an iPhone.

It has a rain to snow winter storm that's like a super clipper/Arctic blast late in the run. It has a rain to dynamic snow event on the Northern Plateau earlier.  The 12z was 30 degrees colder over our source regions than the 18z at several frames out there. 

 

The biggest and most unfortunate difference is that the PNA ridge gets shoved east and rather than re-enforcing shots of cold air being pulled down from Canada across the midwest and plains, the plains and upper mid-west are 20 degrees above normal. 

Even with the good rain to snow event, overall it was a much worse run than 12z.

[John1122]

I'll say this for it, it has zero support from it's ensembles on kicking out the PNA into the middle of the country.

[Daniel Boone]

It's the 18z so, less concern than when 12z or 0z. However, it does show that as one possibility although remotely so as all othe guidance is not showing that Option.

[Carvers Gap]

I think I what we are seeing is deterministic modeling bouncing between a PNA and an EPO.  I am sure the are having trouble with the double block.

[Carvers Gap]

With very cold air potentially entering the pattern, model mayhem (think about the commercial) might be underway. 

[Carvers Gap]

I think the likely outcome (Euro AIFS hints at this) is an ana front like we have seen in recent years. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

My old friend from SE Texas Larry Cosgrove had a very encouraging synopsis on our upcoming cold pattern tonight on Facebook. We all continue to see a very promising episode of an active storm track and much below temperatures. Fingers crossed that everyone scores during the upcoming pattern! I appreciate the imput you folks provide and Happy New Year to our neighbors on the other side of the mountains!

[Carvers Gap]

This is the big concern for me....

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

My old friend from SE Texas Larry Cosgrove had a very encouraging synopsis on our upcoming cold pattern tonight on Facebook. We all continue to see a very promising episode of an active storm track and much below temperatures. Fingers crossed that everyone scores during the upcoming pattern! I appreciate the imput you folks provide and Happy New Year to our neighbors on the other side of the mountains!

For sure.  Larry sounded upbeat about an I-81/I-95 snow event for sure.  Happy New Years to you all as well!!!

[Carvers Gap]

Now, folks, this is an analog package right here (CPC d8-14).  1985 triple weighted.....and two of those dates are the mother load dates.  Not my words, but theirs.  The analogs in bold are extremely heavy hitters.  I am probably not bought into the pattern enough to go with not one, not two, not three, not four...but five elite winters.  Those winters are 5 star recruits.  

19810104
19850118
19851221
19610120
19850109 
20001231
19951229
19770117
19850123
19601221

And 1960-61 was the Kennedy inaugural snowstorm.  @Daniel Booneor @John1122 was 1960-61 a good winter for the forum area?  Just asking since CPC double weighted it.

https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=67947

[Carvers Gap]

The 8-14 Day Outlook depicts broad riding over the western CONUS, and comparatively stronger troughing over the eastern CONUS. This pattern is forecast to continue into the Weeks 3-4 period, with dynamical model predictions of 500-hPa heights generally favoring western CONUS ridging and eastern CONUS troughing. Though models broadly agree on this pattern, there are differences in the strength and positioning of the ridge and trough between the models. For example, JMA places the ridge center more off the West Coast, while ECMWF depicts the ridge center over the western CONUS. Moreover, there is run-to-run inconsistency with the positioning of the ridge in models, with some runs placing the ridge center off the West Coast and others over western CONUS. Both the differences between model forecasts of 500-hPa heights and the run-to-run inconsistencies lead to uncertainty in temperatures over the north central CONUS, as the solutions with the ridge over the western CONUS would favor eastward expansion of above normal temperatures, but those with the ridge placed off the West Coast would allow cold air from the north to cover a larger portion of the Great Plains and East. In addition to these model and run-to-run inconsistencies, the dynamical model forecasts of Week 4 feature a similar but much more muted pattern, particularly for the forecasted troughing. As such, the chances for below normal temperatures over the East are also weaker in Week 4. However, as a whole for the Weeks 3-4 period, an experimental equal weighted blend of CFS, ECMWF, JMA, GEFS, and the statistical MLR tool depicts weak ridging over the western third of the CONUS and comparatively stronger troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS. 

Given the expected continuation of the mid-level height pattern from the 8-14 Day period, the Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures beneath favored ridging over the West, and enhanced probabilities of below normal temperatures beneath favored troughing over the East. Despite the weakening of the mid-level height pattern from week 3 to week 4, we expect the colder temperatures to persist particularly over the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic where probabilities are highest. Probabilities of above normal temperatures are enhanced, reaching 60 to 70 percent, over parts of the West where there was the best agreement among dynamical models. Above normal temperatures are forecast over Alaska given dynamical model agreement and trends. Equal chances (EC) of above and below normal temperatures are featured over the central CONUS given uncertainty in the mid-level height pattern noted above. 

Above median precipitation is forecast over Southeastern Alaska, the Northwest, and along the East Coast of the CONUS supported by dynamical model forecasts. Probabilities are higher (reaching 60 to 70 percent) over Southeastern Alaska and parts of the Northwest where there was stronger agreement among models. However, we note some decrease in probabilities close to the West Coast due to the uncertainty in positioning of the forecasted ridging. In contrast, though most model solutions leaned toward above median precipitation along the East Coast, probabilities are overall weaker, with some disagreement over the Mid-Atlantic with JMA leaning toward below median precipitation and the other models leaning toward above median precipitation. Below median precipitation is forecast for the Southwest stretching eastward to the Gulf States and into parts of the Ohio Valley, supported by dynamical model forecasts. EC is indicated where model forecasts are weak or inconsistent.