Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Also, next Sunday, ensembles and now the 18z GFS are picking up on a WAA system.  Something to watch for NE TN and northern Cumberland Plateau folks.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS.....make stationary fronts fun again.  

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I saw some data where late fall and early winter have gotten colder.  Spring has gotten warmer.  But until this cold pool loses its supply, could be a slog.  Many March analogs are cold.  This winter we are bucking the majority analogs though.  I said up front this winter might not play nice.  It has lived up to that.  From the word go, this winter just seemed to have a different look on long range modeling.  Not sure I can put my finger on exactly what…just seemed like it would buck the trends.  All those warm weeklies looks have been can kicked almost 2-3 weeks so far.

I’m surprised to hear springs have gotten warmer.  I feel they have gotten colder.  Especially having colder Aprils. A cold March & April does not surprise me.  It seems February has been warmer only to see winter come back in March & April with the dreaded cold rains. 

[Carvers Gap]

This seems to be a very common look around or just after 240.  I am watching this time frame.  The CMC and GFS have something similar.  Possible reload after this rotates through.  That is begging or a winter storm.  Cold air supply is stellar and the SER should flex right into that.

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the Euro Weeklies tonight...after a warmup during a TBD portion of December, it sure looks like March might be an extension of winter for the usual places which can have winter during March.  

[vortexse93]

This is not my final snowfall forecast, but in a close enough time frame to go into some detail of my concerns with this system. For starters, long range model guidance have been indicating for a rare winter storm to impact LA into South MS for about a week or so and this is still consistent with the medium and short range models as of recent. 

For Central MS, it remains very uncertain on if there will be enough precip to overcome the extremely dry airmass. While model guidance of the ensembles are still indicating snow, the medium and short range models are not so certain that will be the case. The NAM, HRRR and RAP are suggest otherwise. The forecast sounding for KJAN from the 21z sounding does show a moist environment in the mid levels, but from about 700 mb down to the sfc shows a very dry environment. This concerns because this type of sounding is not supportive of snowfall, but instead snow flurries and very minor snowfall accumulations for Central MS. As some may recall in a previous post on here, I had concerns that Central MS will end up on the drier side of this system and based on the medium range guidance, this still could be the case heading into Tuesday. There is some time between and Tuesday for this system to make a push further north that maybe some of precip can make enough of an impact, but time will tell on that.  

The NWS Blend and several of the ensemble data are still indicating for potential snowfall of 1" to 2" across Central MS. However, given the time frame, I tend to lean towards the short range model guidance, especially with the census of those short term model guidance showing dry air eating away at any potential moisture in the atmosphere. Will still continue watching over the next several hours to see how this system will progress throughout the course of the day. Pending what tomorrow shows, will likely determine how Tuesday will pan out. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I’m surprised to hear springs have gotten warmer.  I feel they have gotten colder.  Especially having colder Aprils. A cold March & April does not surprise me.  It seems February has been warmer only to see winter come back in March & April with the dreaded cold rains. 

it used to be that spring snow IMBY was not uncommon, and that snow during late November and early December was very unusual.  That has flipped since about December 2009. Winter finds a way to get going early in NE TN more times than not lately.  We can have cold/rainy springs.....

Also, I am thinking what I looked at was snow and not temps now that I think about it.  Though, there is prob some correlation there.  Snowier falls and early winters.  Less snow springs.