Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[jaxjagman]

Should be one of the past several years we seen the PV so strong.More warming today  per JMA,but the PV is still strong and by 10days on the Euro it looks more just tilted.Soon as the MJO  gets out of the Maritime it should  get sling shot back to the pole 

[jaxjagman]

Euro is trying to kill my cold thinking towards the end of the month.Siberian ridge and heights pumped up into the AK,Bering Sea would be a more ridge in the east,hopefully this changes

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro is trying to kill my cold thinking towards the end of the month.Siberian ridge and heights pumped up into the AK,Bering Sea would be a more ridge in the east,hopefully this changes

Pops a big SER. Extremely positive NAO too !

[nrgjeff]

Severe weather baby! ^^

Alright to Tuesday. Gonna let Sunday live in the Jan. 19 RGEM thread though I know it's flexible. Looks like more like moisture will be around for light snow in more places on Sunday, but it's covered in that thread.

For Tuesday I share the probability of WS Warning from WPC. The cut-off at Tennessee isn't a jinx, haha. Alabama and Georgia have that low 2-inch criteria. So if there's nearly a 30% chance up on the Tennessee border; then, maybe a little light fluffy snow East Tenn. 

Again this is for Tuesday and Tuesday night. End of NAM (I know lol) hints at a little more moisture up our way like the Canadian. Otherwise we'll be happy for the Deep South.

I'd pick Birmingham over ATL because nothing ever goes right in ATL. Also be north side of centerline, but yeah ATL looks good this time too.

[PowellVolz]

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1880753129874186281?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg

[PowellVolz]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1880753129874186281?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg

 

I can’t get tweets to show up correctly. Any tips? Lol

[PowellVolz]

Latest NBM gets Tuesday’s system into the valley. 

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1880812774202519644?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

 

I can’t get tweets to show up correctly. Any tips? Lol

I just do like you did and post Link. Carver's figured out how. Wonder where he's been today ?

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I just do like you did and post Link. Carver's figured out how. Wonder where he's been today ?

Just take the tweet address, place it into notes or word, take out "x" in the address, replace with with "twitter", and paste it into the post. It should preview immediately before you even have to submit.  

[Carvers Gap]

It will look like this when you replace the x:

 

 

[AFranklin88]

Latest NBM gets Tuesday’s system into the valley. 

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1880812774202519644?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg

What does the NBM take into account - all of the ensembles?

[John1122]

22 minutes ago, AFranklin88 said:

What does the NBM take into account - all of the ensembles?

It has different weights for different models and different time frames. Basically all ensemble models including the SREF. The major op models. The CAMs/NAM nest. 

[matt9697]

15 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro is trying to kill my cold thinking towards the end of the month.Siberian ridge and heights pumped up into the AK,Bering Sea would be a more ridge in the east,hopefully this changes

So you think this will kill any snow chances in February for us?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing that I'm kind of wondering about for Tuesday now is what happened with the last system. If you remember the northern stream system dropped in and suppressed the southern stream and helped develop some snow over the upper midwest and OH Valley:

 

here is a gif of the RGEM for that last system:'

 

Trend has been for this Tuesday for obliterative suppression as the shortwave in the southwest kicks out and a northern stream shortwave drops in, kind of like what happened above, but with the n. stream system getting further south. 

 

 

The above above looks even more suppressive for us now that I look at them both together.

 

But who knows, maybe the n. stream drops far enough to give us some lift. It's all I've got. Seemed like a good idea when I thought of it at 2 am lol. 

There's a bit of time Tuesday PM where we have moisture from 925 mb up to at least 500 mb. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Models seem to be all over the place long range. We'll have a run that tries to drop a 1050+ arctic high down then another that tries the old La Nina flooding pattern or severe. 

 

One thing with this dominant northern stream, is that it is what I would have expected from La Ninas or yore, not the recent constant troughs over the southwest. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Speaking of La Ninas of yore...

Might could be a clipper on the Euro and GFS this upcoming Friday? Surely not!?

 

 

[matt9697]

24 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

One thing that I'm kind of wondering about for Tuesday now is what happened with the last system. If you remember the northern stream system dropped in and suppressed the southern stream and helped develop some snow over the upper midwest and OH Valley:

 

here is a gif of the RGEM for that last system:'

 

Trend has been for this Tuesday for obliterative suppression as the shortwave in the southwest kicks out and a northern stream shortwave drops in, kind of like what happened above, but with the n. stream system getting further south. 

 

 

The above above looks even more suppressive for us now that I look at them both together.

 

But who knows, maybe the n. stream drops far enough to give us some lift. It's all I've got. Seemed like a good idea when I thought of it at 2 am lol. 

There's a bit of time Tuesday PM where we have moisture from 925 mb up to at least 500 mb. 

 

 

I know we could use some more rain that is for sure; usually this is our rainy time of year, building the water table; coming off a dry fall, we dont need a dry winter! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Latest NAM gets some virga up this way

[Carvers Gap]

Welcome to thread-the-needle time.  That should last for about the next 4-6 weeks.  The MJO is all over the place, and that fits with LR modeling - all over the place.  North America is cold, folks.  During previous winters, we would throw in the tall after this next cold shot.  The problem with that is that any cutter can driver wickedly cold air all the way to the coast right now.  Chinooks will be short lived.  I kind of felt like this winter wasn't gonna be an easy call, and nothing looks easy about the next 4-6 weeks in terms of any kind of generalization.  I don't think we will have a locked in cold pattern, but we may well have very sharp shots of cold air.  If we can get a shortwave to interact with the northern stream(phase), the ingredients are on the table for a big storm.  But....it will be thread the needle stuff where we will like depend on cold rushing into the backside of a storm.

[Carvers Gap]

Again, the big difference between this and other winters is our cold source is old-school legit.  The other thing is the EPO seems to want to fire regardless of the MJO.  That tells me the PDO has flipped or is flipping.  The PDO will be in direct conflict with the MJO signal.   That is going to wreck havoc on modeling.  Don't think so.  BN heights in Alaska with a ridge on the West Coast....that has not happened a lot recently.  It can happen, but that isn't a recent staple.  The playing field has changed....let's see if the surface responds.  This is one of these deals where we could have severe one week and a winter storm the next.

[jaxjagman]

5 hours ago, matt9697 said:

So you think this will kill any snow chances in February for us?

Why couldnt you?Think the MJO becomes murky right now where it actually could go in later days,probably any model could be right ATM into the extended period.I was looking at the CFS and it shows two camps in the upcoming days,,believe it should be more advanced.Seems to me the IO will play games with the signal from the Rossby wave trains and Kelvin,thats just my thoughts,no forecast and i certainly could be wrong

[Matthew70]

Sounds like February will be March this year.  Up & down like a roller coaster.  Lately March has been when we have the severe wx & tornadoes.  April to me has seemed quiet in this area.  Question is will we have 2 months of March wx.  

[jaxjagman]

52 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Sounds like February will be March this year.  Up & down like a roller coaster.  Lately March has been when we have the severe wx & tornadoes.  April to me has seemed quiet in this area.  Question is will we have 2 months of March wx.  

Think we can moderate some into the first week of Feb.some people say the MJO is gloom and doom when it gets into phase 3,its really not,see all the height falls into east China and the Koreas,IMHO thats not is not a warm look,we've seen this pattern since late fall into winter this year and it continues

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Again, the big difference between this and other winters is our cold source is old-school legit.  The other thing is the EPO seems to want to fire regardless of the MJO.  That tells me the PDO has flipped or is flipping.  The PDO will be in direct conflict with the MJO signal.   That is going to wreck havoc on modeling.  Don't think so.  BN heights in Alaska with a ridge on the West Coast....that has not happened a lot recently.  It can happen, but that isn't a recent staple.  The playing field has changed....let's see if the surface responds.  This is one of these deals where we could have severe one week and a winter storm the next.

Yeah, I think February may be similar to February 1985. If so, may be some big Storms with Rain to Snow scenarios. 

[jaxjagman]

18 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, I think February may be similar to February 1985. If so, may be some big Storms with Rain to Snow scenarios. 

Could be,some people still think its more like the 94-95,i at one time thought the same,but but Yellow Sea to off of the West Pac off of Japan the SST'S were very cold compared to this year.Its kinda ironic tho even tho last year was in a NINO was the warmest ever SST'S in a NINO,this year is even warmer with a NINA,i dunno,we'll see

[John1122]

13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, I think February may be similar to February 1985. If so, may be some big Storms with Rain to Snow scenarios. 

I'd take a repeat of the 14 incher we got in around Valentine's Day 1985. We even went back below zero a few days later.

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'd take a repeat of the 14 incher we got in around Valentine's Day 1985. We even went back below zero a few days later.

Yep. Had a six hour Blizzard that dumped 15 inches with 4-6 feet Drifts after two and a half inches of Rain ! Fell early on the 13th . Rain changed to Snow around 1:30 am. Winds gusted over 40 mph.

Recorded 13.5" on Valentine's Day the following Year.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Sounds like February will be March this year.  Up & down like a roller coaster.  Lately March has been when we have the severe wx & tornadoes.  April to me has seemed quiet in this area.  Question is will we have 2 months of March wx.

I saw some data where late fall and early winter have gotten colder.  Spring has gotten warmer.  But until this cold pool loses its supply, could be a slog.  Many March analogs are cold.  This winter we are bucking the majority analogs though.  I said up front this winter might not play nice.  It has lived up to that.  From the word go, this winter just seemed to have a different look on long range modeling.  Not sure I can put my finger on exactly what…just seemed like it would buck the trends.  All those warm weeklies looks have been can kicked almost 2-3 weeks so far.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yep. Had a six hour Blizzard that dumped 15 inches with 4-6 feet Drifts after two and a half inches of Rain ! Fell early on the 13th . Rain changed to Snow around 1:30 am. Winds gusted over 40 mph.

Recorded 13.5" on Valentine's Day the following Year.

Warner patterns with cold lurking are not always bad.