Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Link says "not found" brother.

^^^^^^^That's what happened to our snow -> 404 not found.  Comedic drum roll please.

[nrgjeff]

Let's try this. It might be fixed last page too.

Model trends are south for Tuesday. Sometimes the Deep South gets it and we don't, so we can be happy for them. I don't even want to look at the late week mess. 

There is still a chance Tue/Wed though. LREF from NWS. I'm not sure where this lives on their website so I'll share.

[dwagner88]

I would be a lot more bitter about this if we had missed last week. And I'm not actually ready to throw in the towel yet. There is still a good chance the northern precip shield is undermodeled. 

[tnweathernut]

20 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Y'all are starting to sound like me! Welcome to the Dark Side.

AI versions pretty much followed their ops versions. Whatever. I'm going with the Canadian. Sounds good, eh?

I specifically had you in mind when I made the post…… lol

[nrgjeff]

Indeed it's nice to be playin' with house money. Southeast Tennessee certainly is, even if other parts of the forum don't feel the same (yet). If we get it great! If not I'll be happy for the Deep South. But yeah, I think we have a shot still. 

26 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

I would be a lot more bitter about this if we had missed last week. And I'm not actually ready to throw in the towel yet. There is still a good chance the northern precip shield is undermodeled. 

I figured you were. Great stuff!

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I specifically had you in mind when I made the post…… lol

Soon, maybe as early as in February, we can focus on the Dark Side of the Force. 

[*Flash*]

45 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

I would be a lot more bitter about this if we had missed last week. And I'm not actually ready to throw in the towel yet. There is still a good chance the northern precip shield is undermodeled. 

I like your optimism. Personally, I'm hoping I can chase to northern AL, Sewanee, and/or Chatt and not have to go much further. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro has below zero temps right in the middle of my February warm-up!  If I was driving a car called the February torch...the warning lights would be coming on.  BTW, it has yet another solution for snow next week.  

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro has below zero temps right in the middle of my February warm-up!  If I was driving a car called the February torch...the warning lights would be coming on.  BTW, it has yet another solution for snow next week.  

Sounds like we need to put the once reliable Euro on Prozac...

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC is on the west side of guidance, and its ensemble is west of that at 12z.  Decent jog west on ensembles.  GFS  and its ensemble are still buried.  The GEPS came in west of the operational at 12z.  I noticed the ensemble mean was up (GEPS), and decided to look at the individuals. Most of the bigger solutions get portions of E TN.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is what we want.  The Euro has a bit of a low amplitude bias at times...beware.  But if we can get the MJO plot to race acorss the warm phases with low amplitude in the COD, February might be in play.  I did have NOT thought that for several months.  This trend started to show up recently.  The EPO/PNA is showing that is really wants to stay in place.  The NAO is showing some weak signals that it might fire up again soon.  Remember, the NAO is one of the toughest things for modeling to model IMHO, especially when it initiates and duration. @GaWx, is phase 3 the North Carolina phase for snowstorms?

Sorry, but I don’t know.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS has a trailer system (similar to the EURO) to the SE mauler.  It is showing up on ensembles about 36 hours later.  Decent hits.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS has flipped cold after brief warmup d10-15.  What if this pattern is just starting and not ending?  Worth asking.  Need to watch for a trailer to the Deep South system.  @Daniel Boone, we have seen that many, many times.  Jeff mentioned it as well.  The cold pulls back north and stalls.  That creates a boundary for the next storm.  Just have to time it right.  The 12z GEFS oddly supports the Euro operational at 12z - just quicker.  

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEFS has flipped cold after brief warmup d10-15.  What if this pattern is just starting and not ending?  Worth asking.  Need to watch for a trailer to the Deep South system.  @Daniel Boone, we have seen that many, many times.  Jeff mentioned it as well.  The cold pulls back north and stalls.  That creates a boundary for the next storm.  Just have to time it right.  The 12z GEFS oddly supports the Euro operational at 12z - just quicker.  

Yes, very plausible. If the MJO does as the Euro depicts particularly imo. I believe the Models LR are having trouble due to the MJO and Enso mainly. It seems the +TNH wants to keep reasserting. I think you hit on the main reason when you mentioned the change in the PDO.  Argues for -EPO.  Nina is weak so having trouble overpowering the Pacific.

[jaxjagman]

I think the MJO signal will get totally interfered with the next upcoming days and any model could be right TBH.IMHO like Carver said earlier the NAO will probably change the next several runs over and over, i still think temps could moderate some and towards the end of Jan it can get pretty cold again,depending on teleconnections

[John1122]

Way down the road, but the Euro rolled out a huge winter storm at D 12.

[John1122]

We begin February in the ice box per the Euro.