Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think I might throw out a thread for Sunday. I think tnweathernut was suggesting that. At the very least we'll have a discreet place to pop some obs if it over performs. 

May as well do an Arctic Blast thread to cover the week of cold and hits or misses on snow imo. We at least are pretty sure it's going to be cold. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

May as well do an Arctic Blast thread to cover the week of cold and hits or misses on snow imo. We at least are pretty sure it's going to be cold. 

Sounds good. I'll update it to include that too. 

[Silas Lang]

I wouldn't necessarily punt on Tuesday. The GFS is almost to where the Canadian is now. Yet another move NW from 0z to 6z. Euro trending NW as well. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'm not ready for a punt yet, but just figured we might get some surprise obs if this Sunday deal over performs. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Did everyone actually look at the snow output on the CMC last night for next Tuesday- Wednesday? I know we've been mentioning it, but it is worth a look if you didn't see it. It was insane. 

 

47.

point.

7.      4.

inch.

max.

 

 

[John1122]

14 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

I wouldn't necessarily punt on Tuesday. The GFS is almost to where the Canadian is now. Yet another move NW from 0z to 6z. Euro trending NW as well. 

 

 

It's 3rd and 18 and we're on our own 31-yard-line. Hopefully we can pull a miracle. If we don't make it on third, we could still go for it on 4th but it looks like a punting situation right now. 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Did everyone actually look at the snow output on the CMC last night for next Tuesday- Wednesday? I know we've been mentioning it, but it is worth a look if you didn't see it. It was insane. 

 

47.

point.

7.

inch.

max.

 

 

I saw it. Whenever models show record smashing events I usually discount them. I hate to because it's our best hope. It's a phaser with an explosive precip field. 

The other models don't phase but also don't seem to have a big enough qpf field given the jet dynamics. 

[John1122]

I will say that last night's euro was equally ludicrous for a similar reason. It showed nearly 7 inches of snow in Tallahassee. That would obliterate all known Florida snow records and almost triple their record snowfall. It's the equivalent of a model dropping 72 inches across our area as far as a climatological outlier. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I saw it. Whenever models show record smashing events I usually discount them. I hate to because it's our best hope. It's a phaser with an explosive precip field. 

The other models don't phase but also don't seem to have a big enough qpf field given the jet dynamics. 

I figured you did, but just wanted to make sure everyone saw that insanity. 

But honestly, the 6z GFS ain't too far off:

GFS

 

CMC:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

TBH the Euro isn't too far off either if it loses part of the shortwave getting hung up over the (can you guess where?)

[PowellVolz]

 

13 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I will say that last night's euro was equally ludicrous for a similar reason. It showed nearly 7 inches of snow in Tallahassee. That would obliterate all known Florida snow records and almost triple their record snowfall. It's the equivalent of a model dropping 72 inches across our area as far as a climatological outlier. 

2.8” is the record in Tallahassee set in 1958. The only other time it snowed at least 1” was 1890ish. You can look at climo two different ways here. 
1) Tallahassee is right on schedule for their next 1” of snow this week. 
2) as far as we know it’s only snowed 1” there twice. If you were going to bet, most people would bet on it not happening. 

[jaxjagman]

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/2023/12/20/snow-florida-record-snowfall-lowest-temperature-christmas-snowstorm-great-arctic-outbreak-record/71983060007/

[Matthew70]

After yesterday & today wx & the warmer temps.  I dread the cold & dry temps coming. I would rather have spring than cold & dry.  Another winter of a great pattern going to waste.

[ShawnEastTN]

4 hours ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Before I fell asleep last night, I was reading an article from a met based in Missouri.  He used to be based in Charlotte. I'll look for the link later on my lunch break. He says as suppressed as the midweek storm looks, don't be surprised if that push of Arctic air modifies quite a bit compared to what is depicted currently on models. If that happens,  more qpf could make its way as far north as the Kentucky line, and possibly drop anywhere from. 25-.40" of qpf for parts of Tennessee. With a high ratio snow, that would quickly accumulate for several forum members. I'm not wishcasting, just repeating what a met mentioned. A late model shift and I guess anything is possible.

This is a hope I've been clinging to.  A good example was the most recent cold which wasn't as extreme as originally modeled.  That scenario the Met describes makes sense if the cold isn't as strong as modeled, and I hold on to hope that the late week storm that the GFS advertises is a perfect track storm that we at least get if we don't get the over running.

[matt9697]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

This is a hope I've been clinging to.  A good example was the most recent cold which wasn't as extreme as originally modeled.  That scenario the Met describes makes sense if the cold isn't as strong as modeled.

I am wondering the same thing honestly; while it is going to be cold, is it going to be 1899 or 1985 type cold? In the 1899 instance, it snowed in New Orleans but here in the TN Valley we were well below zero, I am not seeing that type of cold. How is modeling depicting things so far south? 

[Carvers Gap]

Well, well, well....

 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Did everyone actually look at the snow output on the CMC last night for next Tuesday- Wednesday? I know we've been mentioning it, but it is worth a look if you didn't see it. It was insane. 

 

47.

point.

7.      4.

inch.

max.

 

 

It has a really bad habit of overdoing it for the Carolinas.  Remember that 4' storm which never materialized there?  I still have a friend mad at me for sharing that map!  LOL  Now, if it wants to move that northwest a bit....then of course it is legit.  LOL.

[matt9697]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Well, well, well....

 

This is different from the previous? Showing less of a stout shot of cold air? 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

This is different from the previous? Showing less of a stout shot of cold air? 

Nah, February was supposed to be a torch.  Models have been slowly backing themselves out of that torch solution.  That look isn't warm at all.  Cold source is good, and that ridge in that PNA can deliver it.

[Carvers Gap]

This is what we want.  The Euro has a bit of a low amplitude bias at times...beware.  But if we can get the MJO plot to race acorss the warm phases with low amplitude in the COD, February might be in play.  I did have NOT thought that for several months.  This trend started to show up recently.  The EPO/PNA is showing that is really wants to stay in place.  The NAO is showing some weak signals that it might fire up again soon.  Remember, the NAO is one of the toughest things for modeling to model IMHO, especially when it initiates and duration. @GaWx, is phase 3 the North Carolina phase for snowstorms?

[PowellVolz]

6 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

This is different from the previous? Showing less of a stout shot of cold air? 

It’s not so much about the red and blue colors across the board as it is about specific locations of those colors and the MB lines. I understand why that map looks like a warm pattern but look at the red blob north of Alaska and the blue over the Hudson Bay in Canada. Everything else being equal, this is a good look to allow shots of cold air into the mid South. 

[matt9697]

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

It’s not so much about the red and blue colors across the board as it is about specific locations of those colors and the MB lines. I understand why that map looks like a warm pattern but look at the red blob north of Alaska and the blue over the Hudson Bay in Canada. Everything else being equal, this is a good look to allow shots of cold air into the mid South. 

I agree for sure; seems like February can offer some big snows in the forum area. 

[Wurbus]

ICON was a big nothing burger for the Tuesday system. Suppressed to all hell and doesn't get a good phase. Even had some snow south of New Orleans in the gulf lol

[PowellVolz]

6 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

I agree for sure; seems like February can offer some big snows in the forum area. 

What’s crazy is how many of Knoxville’s biggest snows were outside of climatology. I believe 4 of the top 5 are in November, December and March. 

[dwagner88]

38 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

What’s crazy is how many of Knoxville’s biggest snows were outside of climatology. I believe 4 of the top 5 are in November, December and March. 

That actually makes sense to me. The amplitude between warm moist airmasses and cold dry ones is at its peak in the shoulder seasons.

[ShawnEastTN]

23 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

That actually makes sense to me. The amplitude between warm moist airmasses and cold dry ones is at its peak in the shoulder seasons.

Same reason why our best chances for a winter storm regardless of month is the beginning or ending of a cold blast.  The transitions have the moisture.

[nrgjeff]

Yes because we are buried in Arctic high pressure during the middle of the cold wave. 

Model trends are south for Tuesday. Sometimes the Deep South gets it and we don't, so we can be happy for them. I don't even want to look at the late week mess. 

There is still a chance Tue/Wed though. LREF from NWS. I'm not sure where this lives on their website so I'll share.

PS. other Pinned thread is just for Sunday right?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

PS. other Pinned thread is just for Sunday right?

I think we decided to use it for subsequent obs for the arctic air too. 

[Daniel Boone]

14 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Yes because we are buried in Arctic high pressure during the middle of the cold wave. 

Model trends are south for Tuesday. Sometimes the Deep South gets it and we don't, so we can be happy for them. I don't even want to look at the late week mess. 

There is still a chance Tue/Wed though. LREF from NWS. I'm not sure where this lives on their website so I'll share.

PS. other Pinned thread is just for Sunday right?

Link says "not found" brother.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think we decided to use it for subsequent obs for the arctic air too. 

It's an all you can eat buffet.  And what's even better?  It's free.