Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I keep thinking it is going to warm-up.  Both the 12z Euro and Euro AIFS are frigid w/ some minor warm-ups.  MAJOR differences in how the MJO is being handled between the Euro and American modeling.  If the Euro wins this battle, it is very possible this winter isn't even close to being done.  If American modeling is done, gonna be mowing by the end of February...then the cold comes back!  If we only get a minor warm-up, the 95-96 analog might be the ticket.

[Carvers Gap]

The short range is giving me a headache.  LOL.  So, here is some fun stuff.

Check this out for the end of the month.  The first image is a single, day image of Jan 31.  Look at the CFSv2 for Feb1-8th at 12z.  That is uncanny.  I am coming close to using the AIFS as my main LR tool.  It has been stellar this season at picking out cold in the LR.  Why do I show these?  Well, the Weeklies have the trough in the West!  Now, there are all kinds of conflicting teleconnections in these images.  Cold Alaska w/ a weak PNA or EPO.  It looks like Greenland is helping out some.  Maybe the strat is starting to wreck havoc on a warmup for a change!  We'll see.  I do think we see warmer temps than January, but there is no where to go but up!  So easy call.  Inject some cold into February wavelengths, and we might not be done.  If these are wrong, I am getting my lettuce out early!  LOL.  PDO  wildcard in play.

 

[BNAwx]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I keep thinking it is going to warm-up.  Both the 12z Euro and Euro AIFS are frigid w/ some minor warm-ups.  MAJOR differences in how the MJO is being handled between the Euro and American modeling.  If the Euro wins this battle, it is very possible this winter isn't even close to being done.  If American modeling is done, gonna be mowing by the end of February...then the cold comes back!  If we only get a minor warm-up, the 95-96 analog might be the ticket.

This seems to be one of those rare winters where it seems to find a way to stay chilly in our neck of the woods.  Hope the Euro’s MJO forecast is right.  It looks like a quick low amplitude run through the warm phases then into the COD.  My gut feeling (and it isn’t worth much) says we’ll have several more chances at winter weather before we make the final break into Spring. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

This seems to be one of those rare winters where it seems to find a way to stay chilly in our neck of the woods.  Hope the Euro’s MJO forecast is right.  It looks like a quick low amplitude run through the warm phases then into the COD.  My gut feeling (and it isn’t worth much) says we’ll have several more chances at winter weather before we make the final break into Spring. 

JB had a good article(unrelated to what I posted above) about the MJO starting to collapse by d15.  That would be huge as that means it would collapse as the MJO is rotating through the warm phases. 

Me talking now...I am not totally sure, but background warm phases are not necessarily antagonistic to snow here.  I think we see some ridges roll through.  The ensembles are warming back to normal by the last three days of the run...but a red flag to me when look at LR models is if the operatationals are totally the opposite.  Normally, we see the opposite it seems.  We are anticipating cold due to cold ensembles.  However, the operationals never really cool down - red flag.  Maybe we can steal some cold in February.  If not, the analogs for this winter really point to a cold(maybe very cold March). 

As for severe, and others have mentioned it.  It would not surprise me at all.  With such extremes in air masses along w/ changing wavelenghts, it would not surprise me.  Any SER is gonna be trouble.

[Carvers Gap]

Sorry for the flurry of non-storm related posts, but the striking thing that I am seeing is the eastern Pac has a ridge over it.  That sure seems like the PDO may be about to help.  IMHO, it trumps all cards.  Maybe that transition is already occurring as evidenced by the persistent EPO ridge.  I doubt modeling is taking that into account yet.

[Carvers Gap]

The one thing I am noticing is that even when ridges roll through in the d10-15, the source region is so cold that any trough(caused by a cutter) injects bitterly cold air into the eastern US.  That seeds the next storm.  It is a pattern where we could potentially have slightly AN temps(really warm days and really cold days...not in between), but be a wintry pattern.  There are still below zero temps in the Ohio Valley after storms cut.  Maybe the key @BNAwxis that source regions are actually improving as the month closes.

[Carvers Gap]

Check out the 500 pattern at 360.  Then check out what is underneath.  This is supposed to be the warmup.  Again, I would caution that the EPS is handling things differently than the GFS/GEFS.  The GEFS still has very cold temps in Canada. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

@Daniel Boone, this might be one of those years where we need some SER to fight these wicked strong cold fronts.  Complete opposite of recent winters.

[Carvers Gap]

What is crazy is that if we manage to bridge three weeks in Feb(weeks 1-3) with even normal temps(instead of AN temps), we might be able to string together a pretty stretch of winter that lasts into March.  I do agree, however, with those saying this might snap to spring at some point.  That said, this winter has been troublesome since I first started looking at it over the summer, and said as much.  It is no less troublesome now!!!  I like these types of patterns BTW - tough!  That smaller bank of cold analogs has had a say.  I really want this winter to have some 14-15 in it...not sure that it will, but I'd like to see it.  We have things working for us right now that we normally do not.  Mainly, there is a lot of cold over NA and stays that way. I kind of thought next week might be it....I am not so sure now.  The MA has a good post of modeling correcting the trough eastward in the LR.  The EPO is possibly positioning itself to be the main driver for this winter.  A good EPO pattern during February is often money.   We aren't there yet, but let's see if we can steal a month.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Daniel Boone, this might be one of those years where we need some SER to fight these wicked strong cold fronts.  Complete opposite of recent winters.

Yep, sure looks like it. Definitely need a Sargasso Sea HP in place while the Storm Trek's across the South to force it to turn.

[nrgjeff]

Don't worry I'm still Snow Jeff. I was just lmao to see others jawboning severe. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I want "Chattanooga snow Jeff" back!

My favoring the Canadian model is for that snow up into Chattanooga, and elsewhere in our Region. Oh Canada! 

[*Flash*]

Happy for our Carolina friends but ouch, this hurts. 

[vortexse93]

I am going to bring this topic back to next week as this is more on my mind than Feb stuff at the moment, sorry guys. 

18z EURO and even the 18z GFS appears to have some agreement with the 12z and even 18z ICON model runs. As for the Canadian, the 12z run has the sfc Low in the right location, however, I think it is being way over aggressive with the snowfall and the coverage with the wintry precip at the moment. 

As for the GFS and EURO ensembles, they are slowly coming in line with the Canadian and ICON models, but still are being persistent with the dry air over Central MS. The current ensemble runs of both the GFS and the EURO has increased confidence in seeing 1 inch snowfall across the region this afternoon along with increase QPF across Central MS. The 18z ICON appears to have severely cut back the coverage of the wintry precip at fcst hr 120, but will have to wait and see how it handles it tomorrow. Also will be curious to know if the GFS will start coming back to reality some as well tomorrow as it day with the 18z run today. 

For those in southern MS, my concern focus towards the sleet/freezing rain potential. While model guidance does not show any warm nose present in the 925 mb to 850 mb range, the freezing line does hug the coast a little more than I like. Current WPC guidance does not show a big chance for freezing rain at the moment for next week, however, model guidance is showing the possibility for it. Will need to watch that carefully as well. 

At this time, it is appearing to that this could be a matter who sees what in terms of wintry precip and how much. I think it is way to early to get into snowfall or even ice accumulations. It does appear that confidence within the model guidance is increasing which should hopefully continue into to the next few days. 

[vortexse93]

4 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Don't worry I'm still Snow Jeff. I was just lmao to see others jawboning severe. 

My favoring the Canadian model is for that snow up into Chattanooga, and elsewhere in our Region. Oh Canada! 

Just wait until March April and May for severe weather. Have a sneaky feeling it could be active for good ole' Dixie Alley. 

[Utvols235]

I took a look at the forecast for Statesboro, GA on wunderground (I’m not sure what models they go off of)… and it is projecting 5-8 in of snow. Last time I can remember them having that kind of prediction was in 2014 when I was in school there. Winter storm warnings all across south GA. We stayed up for hours waiting on it to snow and got nothing other than a thin layer of ice. Augusta got hit pretty hard with an ice storm. The tree lines at Augusta National were noticeably different after that (clearly they are way more now)

Long story short.. I remember seeing basically no snow forecasted for east tn then getting pictures from my parents in west Knox with 5+ inches and more falling. I can’t remember when this was exactly, but I’ll never forget wondering how a storm could miss by that much. Maybe that’s what we are looking at next week? Looks like models still are having a hard time? I find this setup interesting. Never see it that much.


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[Carvers Gap]

AIFS for Sunday....trend for mid week.

 

[John1122]

The 18z Euro was way N/NW but it'll take a miracle to make it this far N. All my eggs are in the Sunday morning basket. The cold shot this week wasn't nearly as severe as initially modeled. But if this one coming is, they usually wring out every bit of moisture in the air. 

[Carvers Gap]

There are hits on the 18z EPS for individual members.  There were zero at 12z.  Major trend north with individual members.

[Carvers Gap]

There wasn't even a straggler on 0z that I could find.   49 looks realistic to me. 35, 8, 3, 9, 16 as well.

 

 

[John1122]

The RGEM keeps giving parts of the area a decent snow event into Sunday. It's probably too aggressive,  but the NAM has been pretty bad at all ranges on the actual ground reality of systems in comparison with the RGEM.  It whipped the NAM on the ice event. Then when it was drier, it stayed drier on the last event while the NAM was juicy. 

[John1122]

Canadian still on board as well. GFS actually leaned towards the Canadian on this first system. 

[Silas Lang]

Just now, John1122 said:

Canadian still on board as well. GFS actually leaned towards the Canadian on this first system. 

Yeah, trends for mid week are actually great on the GFS past few runs. Getting closer to Canadian. 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Silas Lang said:

Yeah, trends for mid week are actually great on the GFS past few runs. Getting closer to Canadian. 

I'm actually talking about the Sat-Sun system. West and Middle Tennessee get 1-3 inches on the Canadian and the RGEM was close. The GFS sticks more to the N areas. E Kentucky gets 6 inches on the RGEM. 

[John1122]

The Canadian was 2-6 inches from the Western Plateau, west on the midweek system. 4-6 inches from the two for most folks from Nashville east. 6-10 in some areas in the East part of the forum. 

[John1122]

The late week cutter came back a little bit. It's suppressed deep into the gulf on the Canadian. 

[John1122]

Pure December 1983 on the Euro/GFS

December '83, 25 Degrees November 30th, we warm to the 50s with 2 inches of rain the first three days of Dec, getting up to the 60s before crashing into the 20s with a trace of snow on the 7th. After a few days BN we shoot up AN and rain.  we are 45 with 1/2 inch of rain, 2 days later, 28 with a trace of snow.  A week later it's 24, we get a trace of snow, but it warms to 49 and rains .85 inches, ends with a trace of snow. We go all the way down to -8 by Christmas eve and Christmas morning with about 1/2 inch of snow. It warms up to 33 by December 27th after a trace of front end snow, it rains 1.4 inches. We finish off with another trace of snow as it ends. We have a couple of days of low 20s and low single digit lows with a trace of snow.  We finished the month -6 with over 6 inches of rain and around 1 total inch of snow from snow even with pipe bursting cold.

We are looking at rain/cold/rain/cold/rain on the Euro to close the month.

[Uncle Nasty]

Before I fell asleep last night, I was reading an article from a met based in Missouri.  He used to be based in Charlotte. I'll look for the link later on my lunch break. He says as suppressed as the midweek storm looks, don't be surprised if that push of Arctic air modifies quite a bit compared to what is depicted currently on models. If that happens,  more qpf could make its way as far north as the Kentucky line, and possibly drop anywhere from. 25-.40" of qpf for parts of Tennessee. With a high ratio snow, that would quickly accumulate for several forum members. I'm not wishcasting, just repeating what a met mentioned. A late model shift and I guess anything is possible.

[John1122]

The GFS has worked back to a huge snow event for the Thursday system. Maybe the SE trend is a thing this year. 

[John1122]

The early week storm is creeping north again on the gfs and euro. Not sure if it'll make it here. The gfs did try to have at least some flurries reach the area Tuesday. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think I might throw out a thread for Sunday. I think tnweathernut was suggesting that. At the very least we'll have a discreet place to pop some obs if it over performs.