Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I mean if you simply say, "Which one makes the most sense given the incoming cold?"  It is an easy choice.  Two model runs make no sense given climatology.  Charleston snow once in a blue moon?  Sure.  North Florida snowstorms?  Man, I won't be able to resist marching myself into the climate forum(please don't start discussing that here!!!!).  E TN could sneak into this.  That said, these systems next week definitely have a lot of aspects of a Carolina snowstorm.  I remember seeing the thousands of posts when we were in the SE forum about their storms.  This fits about all of the criteria need for snow for them.

But....every once in a while the E TN posters would reel one in w/ a northwest jog.  It was pretty glorious.  Those folks haven't had snow in a while, so I will go easy.  But I am still hoping maybe we can reel one in across the Apps. 

I think a big storm is possible.  IF, we are looking at the Weds-Fri fram right now...remember modeling loses systems often between d5-8.

[PowellVolz]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I mean if you simply say, "Which one makes the most sense given the incoming cold?"  It is an easy choice.  E TN could sneak into this.  These systems next week definitely have a lot of aspects of a Carolina snowstorm.  I remember seeing the thousands of posts when we were in the SE forum about their storms.  This fits about all of the criteria need for snow for them.

But....every once in a while the E TN posters would reel one in w/ a northwest jog.  It was pretty glorious.  Those folks haven't had snow in a while, so I will go easy.  But I am still hoping maybe we can reel one in across the Apps. 

I think a big storm is possible.  IF, we are looking at the Weds-Fri fram right now...remember modeling loses systems often between d5-8.

Parts of North Central NC saw their first accumulating snow fall in 3 years on this past Friday. I understand parts of SC going snow free for a while or even the Charlotte area but it’s crazy to think that it’s been 3 years since areas on the NC/Virginia border has seen snow. I just always assumed that area wasn’t prone to snow droughts. 

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Since this is the most used thread as of now I’m going to drop this Pivitol Weather update in here and let a mod place it in the appropriate thread. I’m putting here to give everyone an opportunity to see it for now. 
 

https://x.com/pivotalweather/status/1879926384421994786?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg

So, I have finally learned how to post Tweets on this forum.  It won't work with the prefix "x".  Just take the address and put it on Word or Notepad.  Take the "x" out and replace it with "twitter."  Then, you get this...

 

[tnweathernut]

Just popping in to say we won't hit 1 out of 100 long lead winter events, but you can probably bank on having 5X better odds for the 300 hour 12z GFS severe event it's throwing at us for the 29th of Jan.  Goofy usually backs into 1 out of 20 events in that regard, even when the first 180 hours are beyond screwed up and totally wrong.  lol 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Parts of North Central NC saw their first accumulating snow fall in 3 years on this past Friday. I understand parts of SC going snow free for a while but it’s crazy to think that it’s been 3 years since areas on the NC/Virginia border has seen snow. I just always assumed that area wasn’t prone to snow droughts. 

Super similar to NE TN.  We aren't in a snow drought here, but many areas are in a "big storm" drought.  NE TN normally cashes into a big storm from time to time.  I think it is La Nina weather patterns - drought city there and here.

[tnweathernut]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I mean if you simply say, "Which one makes the most sense given the incoming cold?"  It is an easy choice.  Two model runs make no sense given climatology.  Charleston snow once in a blue moon?  Sure.  North Florida snowstorms?  Man, I won't be able to resist marching myself into the climate forum(please don't start discussing that here!!!!).  E TN could sneak into this.  That said, these systems next week definitely have a lot of aspects of a Carolina snowstorm.  I remember seeing the thousands of posts when we were in the SE forum about their storms.  This fits about all of the criteria need for snow for them.

But....every once in a while the E TN posters would reel one in w/ a northwest jog.  It was pretty glorious.  Those folks haven't had snow in a while, so I will go easy.  But I am still hoping maybe we can reel one in across the Apps. 

I think a big storm is possible.  IF, we are looking at the Weds-Fri fram right now...remember modeling loses systems often between d5-8.

Wasn't it several years ago when the gulf coast states did pretty well when our area couldn't buy a snow?  Maybe back in the mid 20 teens?  I agree this has deep south and Carolinas written all over it.  Would be nice to see our new poster in east central MS get pounded.  Unless they are a Lane Kiffin fan and then in that case, 33 and rain.   I kid, I kid.  :-)

[tnweathernut]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Super similar to NE TN.  We aren't in a snow drought here, but many areas are in a "big storm" drought.  NE TN normally cashes into a big storm from time to time.  I think it is La Nina weather patterns - drought city there and here.

Was just thinking about that yesterday.  In the "snowless" 90's northeast TN saw three separate foot plus events.  Not once since I can recall.  Pretty crazy.

[*Flash*]

32 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Wasn't it several years ago when the gulf coast states did pretty well when our area couldn't buy a snow?  Maybe back in the mid 20 teens?  I agree this has deep south and Carolinas written all over it.  Would be nice to see our new poster in east central MS get pounded.  Unless they are a Lane Kiffin fan and then in that case, 33 and rain.   I kid, I kid.  :-)

 2013-14. So cold in Nashville, we only got 1.9” the whole year.

[ShawnEastTN]

38 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Wasn't it several years ago when the gulf coast states did pretty well when our area couldn't buy a snow?  Maybe back in the mid 20 teens?  I agree this has deep south and Carolinas written all over it.  Would be nice to see our new poster in east central MS get pounded.  Unless they are a Lane Kiffin fan and then in that case, 33 and rain.   I kid, I kid.  :-)

 

38 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Wasn't it several years ago when the gulf coast states did pretty well when our area couldn't buy a snow?  Maybe back in the mid 20 teens?  I agree this has deep south and Carolinas written all over it.  Would be nice to see our new poster in east central MS get pounded.  Unless they are a Lane Kiffin fan and then in that case, 33 and rain.   I kid, I kid.  :-)

Yeah didn't Houston and Galveston score then I think and we couldn't pay for snow, along with southern Louisiana.  Edit - not sure how I duplicated your quote...

[Daniel Boone]

41 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Just popping in to say we won't hit 1 out of 100 long lead winter events, but you can probably bank on having 5X better odds for the 300 hour 12z GFS severe event it's throwing at us for the 29th of Jan.  Goofy usually backs into 1 out of 20 events in that regard, even when the first 180 hours are beyond screwed up and totally wrong.  lol 

Bank on the severe.

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

 2013-14. So cold in Nashville, we only got 1.9” the whole year.

We were fortunate with several decent Clipper Snows that Winter. 

[*Flash*]

1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

 

Yeah didn't Houston and Galveston score then I think and we couldn't pay for snow, a long with southern Louisiana.  Edit - not sure how I duplicated your quote...

I want to say winter 2004-05 (December 2004) was a big one for those areas as well. Another tough winter locally as we missed the pre-Christmas storm to our NW. Paducah’s market got slammed. Couldn’t buy an inch that year.

[Daniel Boone]

If we don't get anything Sat night/Sunday we could be looking at a frozen bare ground after what we got gets rained off Saturday. Wouldn't that be the ultimate bummer. May want to try to get some antidepressants to have on hand. 

  Btw, just went to Big Stone gap and there's still 4-6 inches on North facing slopes and in the Shade !

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I want to say winter 2004-05 (December 2004) was a big one for those areas as well. Another tough winter locally as we missed the pre-Christmas storm to our NW. Paducah’s market got slammed. Couldn’t buy an inch that year.

It was. Southern Indiana recorded over 30" in that pre Christmas one.

[Silas Lang]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

If we don't get anything Sat night/Sunday we could be looking at a frozen bare ground after what we got gets rained off Saturday. Wouldn't that be the ultimate bummer. May want to try to get some antidepressants to have on hand. 

  Btw, just went to Big Stone gap and there's still 4-6 inches on North facing slopes and in the Shade !

Yeah, kind of nuts here in Knoxville. Most open exposed areas are clear, but anywhere in the shade still has plenty of snow. Driving around town yesterday, North facing hills still look relatively untouched. Felt bad for a few snowy, hilly driveways. 

I took my dog for a walk in the park and the snow that is hanging around is tough crusty stuff. Felt like I barely made an imprint and I am a 200 pound man. lol 

[ShawnEastTN]

25 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

If we don't get anything Sat night/Sunday we could be looking at a frozen bare ground after what we got gets rained off Saturday. Wouldn't that be the ultimate bummer. May want to try to get some antidepressants to have on hand. 

  Btw, just went to Big Stone gap and there's still 4-6 inches on North facing slopes and in the Shade !

I still have 2-ish and some areas close 3 inches in shaded areas.  My house sits on a North facing ridge so almost the entire yard is still snowing covered, and the whole ridge North facing side, still has at least 2 inches of snow.  Though today is the best melt day so far, feels like spring.

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I still have 2-ish and some areas close 3 inches in shaded areas.  My house sits on a North facing ridge so almost the entire yard is still snowing covered, and the whole ridge North facing side, still has at least 2 inches of snow.  Though today is the best melt day so far, feels like spring.

That's the way it is at home. 

[fountainguy97]

I'm not sure how much room this really has to move north. Our NW trend is typically possible because of a lack of an arctic push.  This one will turn our backyards into Canada for a few days.  IMO the NW trend may not be as pronounced this time.

 

I think ETN has a shot. But even here I think there is a good chance this one slides to our south.  
 

real talk, my friends back in NC are in desperate need of a big snowstorm. I'm rooting for them 100%!! 

[Daniel Boone]

In Carver's neck of the Woods now. Looks like around an inch in shades here now but rapid melting taking place. Those strong 40+ Degree Winds really eat away at it.

[bearman]

MRX not sounding very excited about probability with Sunday Snow

 

[John1122]

36 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I'm not sure how much room this really has to move north. Our NW trend is typically possible because of a lack of an arctic push.  This one will turn our backyards into Canada for a few days.  IMO the NW trend may not be as pronounced this time.

 

I think ETN has a shot. But even here I think there is a good chance this one slides to our south.  
 

real talk, my friends back in NC are in desperate need of a big snowstorm. I'm rooting for them 100%!! 

In past snow events down on the gulf, it takes a lot colder air than the Euro is throwing out. Historically, accumulation in Florida requires below zero cold here. The Euro has snow breaking out in Florida with surface temps here in the 20s. 

[Daniel Boone]

36 minutes ago, bearman said:

MRX not sounding very excited about probability with Sunday Snow

 

Abysmal really. Thing is, if it even snows lightly all the hour's they mention in higher eles odds should be greater than what's shown.

[nrgjeff]

Y'all are starting to sound like me! Welcome to the Dark Side.

2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

Just popping in to say we won't hit 1 out of 100 long lead winter events, but you can probably bank on having 5X better odds for the 300 hour 12z GFS severe event it's throwing at us for the 29th of Jan.  Goofy usually backs into 1 out of 20 events in that regard, even when the first 180 hours are beyond screwed up and totally wrong.  lol 

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Bank on the severe.

AI versions pretty much followed their ops versions. Whatever. I'm going with the Canadian. Sounds good, eh?

[Matthew70]

Sure looks like we’re gonna have a great pattern, but only to be left high and dry along with being very cold.  Days like today make me ready for spring if it’s gonna be dry and cold, give me spring.

[*Flash*]

32 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Sure looks like we’re gonna have a great pattern, but only to be left high and dry along with being very cold.  Days like today make me ready for spring if it’s gonna be dry and cold, give me spring.

Yeahhh, I don’t view bitterly cold/dry patterns as great. 

[Bigbald]

On 1/15/2025 at 1:47 PM, Uncle Nasty said:

18z gfs bout 500 miles south of 12z, I guess the white flag is up

[ShawnEastTN]

GFS might finally be coming around to the deep south event and away from Millers or cutters.  It at least has some heavy snow for Gulf beaches, and a low centered on the Yucatan Peninsula.  Lol. Only out to 0z Wednesday.  That run only beach towns get snow no one more than 50ish miles inland get anything.

[ShawnEastTN]

Now to see what it does end of week, if anything.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Y'all are starting to sound like me! Welcome to the Dark Side.

AI versions pretty much followed their ops versions. Whatever. I'm going with the Canadian. Sounds good, eh?

I want "Chattanooga snow Jeff" back!

[ShawnEastTN]

Looks like GFS is doing both over running event for beach towns and winding up a storm as a cutter to wrap up this cold shot before it likely reinforces another cold shot after the cutter.  Could have redeemed itself and given us a good miller with a good track to round it out instead of a cutter if we aren't getting the over running.