*Flash* Posted Thursday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:38 PM 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Ensembles barely graze areas north of 40. There is almost zero support for frozen precip north of 40 right now on ensembles. It is possible that operationals are leading the way. I certainly can see that is possible. But the the ensemble mean is waaaaaay down there. I would really caution using the GFS right now. It was woefully wrong with the last system, and is on a total island with this next one. I hope it is right. That means I get to see winter one last time before a possible much AN February. 100%. I can appreciate the eye-candy appeal of the operational GFS, but I can't take it seriously right now. Like any sane model fan, I'm stickin' with ensembles/NBM for now as we wait to see how the weekend plays out. As it's been said, modeling is struggling with the extreme cold with more factors compromising the inputs. I don't have evidence handy, but I imagine cold advisory-type chill has more often involved suppression/lighter snows where existing snowpack (not new) was the snow that benefited. As of now, I'd be more surprised if 3" didn't verify somewhere within 3 hours of my location. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Thursday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:08 PM Well, after the cold next week, I will probably be looking more toward spring, realizing of course that February can offer some fun and games, we have already had a pretty good season by most standards forum wide so 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSWX Posted Thursday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:17 PM 3 hours ago, vortexse93 said: That is true, but I also know that drier snow equals to lower snow ratios as well. If that Low can shift just right, could very well see snow in Central MS, but I am not just not completely sold on it. I should have added the QPF totals as it was showing the cut off of the precip right at Central MS. I am still watching the system but not getting excited by what I have seen. Might also have to watch for temps in the 925 to 700 mb range in case warm area over runs the front and then it some of the precip could be sleet/freezing rain event. I think there is a lot of uncertainty for Central MS at the moment in what will happen but it looks like the other areas I have mentioned are going to be the main focus for this event. Will have to see what happens. Thanks for your posts regarding Mississippi! Have been hoping someone with expertise would start posting about our area and keeping us updated. East Central MS follower 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Thursday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:26 PM 10 minutes ago, MSWX said: Thanks for your posts regarding Mississippi! Have been hoping someone with expertise would start posting about our area and keeping us updated. East Central MS follower Amen. The broader our demographic, the better and more educational our forum experience becomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted Thursday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:32 PM ICON did come north compared to 0z and really hammers mid-southern MS, central AL/GA, SC, & Eastern NC. Some light snow makes it up to 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted Thursday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:33 PM ICON skirts ETN 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:08 PM 34 minutes ago, Reb said: ICON skirts ETN IMHO, right where E TN folks want it at this range. Nice trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 04:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:20 PM @tnweathernut and NE TN/SW VA peeps. I know tnweathernut has mentioned this Sunday as sneaky. The GFS has some decent totals for Sunday as that system on the 12z GFS is stronger off the NE coast after it leaves here. That implies that this "might" be a late bloomer on modeling. Are we looking at mountain amounts which are smoothed into valleys or is this a legit 3-5" opportunity at the last minute? For folks not in the mountains, often modeling will make it look like TRI is going to get thumped when in reality it is mountain totals bleeding into other grids due to smoothing. In reality(from a bird's eye view from directly above), often the rain snow line can be quite abrupt in reality. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM The 12z RGEM implies that middle TN could get thumped on Sunday with 3-4". I know this is a bit late to be discussing it(and we are watching mid-week), but the RGEM was not benign nor is the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM The difference between the GFS & CMC at 120 hrs is staggering at the 500mb level. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted Thursday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:26 PM CMC/ICON is going to be similar, but the CMC is more juiced. Kuchera snowfall maps are going to be off the charts from TX to NC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:27 PM 3 minutes ago, Wurbus said: The difference between the GFS & CMC at 120 hrs is staggering at the 500mb level. The difference at the surface is central Georgia or Chicago. I think the GFS is having some NAM problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted Thursday at 04:29 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:29 PM Yeah, GFS has to be out to lunch at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Thursday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:31 PM 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z RGEM implies that middle TN could get thumped on Sunday with 3-4". I know this is a bit late to be discussing it(and we are watching mid-week), but the RGEM was not benign nor is the GFS. I’d love that. Not sure how the RGEM is performing this year. Regardless, my expectation for the midstate west of the plateau is set to post-frontal flurries late Saturday night with depleted moisture by the time the colder air arrives. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:32 PM The GFS can score coups, but if the Euro is still suppressed....I am gonna have to toss the GFS. It was waaaaay to far north with last weekend's system, and didn't correct until late. If the CMC jogs 150 miles northwest, E TN gets thumped. I have no idea what the trend is at this point. HOWEVER, the ensembles (prior to 12z...haven't looked at those yet) are pretty much the CMC/ICON tracks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:35 PM 1 minute ago, *Flash* said: I’d love that. Not sure how the RGEM is performing this year. Regardless, my expectation for the midstate west of the plateau is set to post-frontal flurries late Saturday night with depleted moisture by the time the colder air arrives. That first system is such a wonky set-up. My expectations are super low. But models are spitting out some decent numbers. It is trending into a bigger storm in the NE which I think is having massive upstream impacts for the next system. How that first system gets handled is making for some wild variations for mid-week. 12z suite is the pro wrestling at this point - anything goes. Models are throwing chairs, jumping off the top rope, and tagging out. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:41 PM Let's just take a minute and admire how different these maps are. The first is the GFS. The second is the Canadian. Left thumbnail is 12z and the right is 0z for the CMC. 12z and 6z, respectively, for the GFS. The CMC is composed of two systems. I can't even remember what the GFS was going. Both have a first system thump, and then we diverge. Might be just a little bit of feedback on the CMC. The CMC does have a bias towards feedback over South Carolina. Take a minute and notice the differences over the NE from run to run and between models. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:07 PM 34 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I’d love that. Not sure how the RGEM is performing this year. Regardless, my expectation for the midstate west of the plateau is set to post-frontal flurries late Saturday night with depleted moisture by the time the colder air arrives. As far as here in the eastern great Valley it has been stellar compared to the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Thursday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:13 PM Model spread has gotten worse the last 12-18 hours, but that does not necessary decrease our odds of success. Appears the middle solution is still a chance of snow. Between Deep South blanks Mid-South, and that atrocious warm nose crap late week, there is a mid-point of light snow southern Tennessee midweek. Of course, all of our Region is clearly within the bell curve. If all else fails. Shit my brain is oat-meal from looking at models. WPC has a 30% chance of snow in the Deep South Days 6-7. North side clips us. One would have to include all of us in the 10% north side. The other 10% is snow south of I-20 and Deep South mayhem. My professional focus has to be temperatures next week; so, I'm not drilling down the snow forecasts more than once a day. We are watching temperature forecasts like hawks. If this thing develops, I'll have a lot more on snow this weekend. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Thursday at 05:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:16 PM Evolution of the weekend system has major impacts on anything showing the rest of the week. Until the weekend is nailed down, I'm taking everything past it with a grain of salt. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Thursday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:41 PM 24 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Model spread has gotten worse the last 12-18 hours, but that does not necessary decrease our odds of success. No way I’m leaning towards the GFS on this, it’s obviously on crack. However with the spread of the mods getting bigger, it doesn’t exactly rule the GFS out either even though it has no support. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:46 PM Well the Euro just gave Florida a shot at a record snowfall. Tallahassee gets 2.5-3 inches, their record snowfall is 2 inches in 1958. Their biggest snowfall since then is .2 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Thursday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:49 PM The GFS even if wrong might be on to something either way with a potential miller of some sort nearing the end of the cold event or a cutter of doom. Still wrong in timing but could ultimately be right in pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:03 PM Sometimes you just have to laugh at seeing the Gulf Coast with multiple snow and ice threats while we sit here high and dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:08 PM I don't think the Euro or GFS is right at 12z. Remember the Key West snow showers? It didn't even verify to anything close to that. i do think the best chances are between Tuesday and Friday. Friday is still 8 days away. This ain't even close to being worked out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Thursday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:09 PM Laugh. Cry. Throw the device. 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: Sometimes you just have to laugh at seeing the Gulf Coast with multiple snow and ice threats while we sit here high and dry. One reality check is Tennessee Valley temps are not forecast as cold as with Heather and Elliott. Perhaps that's less support for a snow down on the Gulf Coast. Of course they could get a bowling ball in the southern stream. Then if we get something as the jet stream lifts back north, I will vomit if we get warm nosed. Still holding onto a middle scenario with light snow for Tennessee midweek. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:09 PM The 12z GFS ensemble is a more southerly CMC track. The 12z GFS has gotta be tossed. I'll toss it. The Euro just as ridiculous. The Canadian looks much more realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Thursday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:11 PM Canadian was first to sniff out Mid South clearing for the total solar eclipse. Oh Canada baby! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM I'm going to hope the Canadian/RGEM is right with this weekend's system and we can at least get some 1-2 inch totals around the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GFS ensemble is a more southerly CMC track. The 12z GFS has gotta be tossed. I'll toss it. The Euro just as ridiculous. The Canadian looks much more realistic. Since this is the most used thread as of now I’m going to drop this Pivitol Weather update in here and let a mod place it in the appropriate thread. I’m putting here to give everyone an opportunity to see it for now. https://x.com/pivotalweather/status/1879926384421994786?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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