Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[housemtnTN]

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

"Past climate data shows that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3 years in the area."

Am i mistaken, or will we have we had Cold Weather Advisory criteria for 3 STRAIGHT years if next weeks cold comes to pass?

I believe so. Last January we definitely did after that snow. It was single digits at night for what, 4 or 5 days??

[bearman]

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

"Past climate data shows that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3 years in the area."

Am i mistaken, or will we have we had Cold Weather Advisory criteria for 3 STRAIGHT years if next weeks cold comes to pass?

That is the way I remember it.  I think they are talking about averages.

[Wurbus]

19 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

I believe so. Last January we definitely did after that snow. It was single digits at night for what, 4 or 5 days??

My weather station recorded 5 nights with single digit lows and one below 0 night.

 

[John1122]

The Euro AI crept NW again at 12z. 4+ for a lot of East TN that run. 2-3 for the Mid-State. 

[John1122]

3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

We may need a sub thread for the 93’ storm. Or just past events in general. Snow and severe. 

We have the historic snow and ice events thread down the page!

[Mr Bob]

I pinned it in case anyone wants to read through or add to! 

[tnweathernut]

26 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro AI crept NW again at 12z. 4+ for a lot of East TN that run. 2-3 for the Mid-State. 

If it's still there on the EURO AI at 0z and also still there on the Canadian there is probably a reason for a thread for the Sunday system, IMO. Especially if one more model jumps on board (i.e. ICON, GFS, EURO). In addition to the AI and GEM, there are hints of it on the normally biased progressive modeling and we are working our way under hour 96.  JMO

[ShawnEastTN]

18z GFS is way further north on its storm for late next week, but man Friday at 6z would be some of the heaviest rates snow I've probably seen since 1993.

[Mrwolf1972]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

18z GFS is way further north on its storm for late next week.

Still gives valley 8-10 inches of snow Thursday into Friday. 

[Matthew70]

It’s time to fire up  the HOT sign.

[Reb]

Good lord, that was a doozy

[ShawnEastTN]

10 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Still gives valley 8-10 inches of snow Thursday into Friday. 

What's impressive is downslope areas still get away with 8-10" instead of 10-12".  No one gets blanked.  It's impressive also because those winds would be strong but strongest as the low passes by to our East so at that time forward you also get an upslope component from the NNW that kicks in through the remainder of the storm blowing the snow around.

[Chattownsnow]

GEFS says the operational is out to lunch. There are a few complete whiffs for the tues - thu storm but most have something. Disappointing to see only one member bring snow to our area. But at least it’s south of us and not north! It’s also the GFS. That, and other models give us a chance. 

[John1122]

The GFS is likely wrong at this range. The ens often kinda trend more and more towards op runs but always show a muted version. The last 24 hours of GEFS runs show the precip shield trucking north. 

[Chattownsnow]

44 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is likely wrong at this range. The ens often kinda trend more and more towards op runs but always show a muted version. The last 24 hours of GEFS runs show the precip shield trucking north. 

You are correct I actually did not expect that. 

[PowellVolz]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Euro AI crept NW again at 12z. 4+ for a lot of East TN that run. 2-3 for the Mid-State. 

Where can you find this at?

[PowellVolz]

2 hours ago, Mr Bob said:

I pinned it in case anyone wants to read through or add to! 

Thank you brother 

[PowellVolz]

1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said:

What's impressive is downslope areas still get away with 8-10" instead of 10-12".  No one gets blanked.  It's impressive also because those winds would be strong but strongest as the low passes by to our East so at that time forward you also get an upslope component from the NNW that kicks in through the remainder of the storm blowing the snow around.

Is there much of a downsloping issue with an overrunning event? 

[ShawnEastTN]

9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Is there much of a downsloping issue with an overrunning event? 

In this iteration of the GFS, it's more a Miller than an over running event with a low passing from New Orleans to Virginia and up the coast.  My take on 18z GFS what it's advertising for Thursday Friday is a second storm towards the end of the cold blast, the over running event is a separate event that is suppressed to absolute oblivion on 18z GFS, but instead it winds a storm up near the end of the polar blast at the end of the week.  So really 2 different events, would be great if we can get both of them actually.  Imagine over running event at the start of the cold blast and miller at the end.  Not impossible to get both, start and end of cold blasts are the sweet spots winter weather.

[PowellVolz]

Maybe this has been talked about but I’m starting to think we are actually dealing with two events. 1 on Tuesday and another at the end of the week. The GFS starts to bring moisture north on Tuesday but completely loses it, then it kicks in on Friday. The other mods show the Tuesday event but some of them are showing signals of return flow at the end of the week. 

[PowellVolz]

1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

In this iteration of the GFS, it's more a Miller than an over running event with a low passing from New Orleans to Virginia and up the coast.  My take on 18z GFS what it's advertising for Thursday Friday is a second storm towards the end of the cold blast, the over running event is a separate event that is suppressed to absolute oblivion on 18z GFS, but instead it winds a storm up near the end of the polar blast at the end of the week.  So really 2 different events, would be great if we can get both of them actually.  Imagine over running event at the start of the cold blast and miller at the end.

Lol… I just made a post basically saying what you just told me. 

[*Flash*]

Sure looks like I will be driving south for a snowchase next week - first time in this direction since February 2015!

[nrgjeff]

The 18Z GFS can go to Hell!
Meanwhile AI versions of both continue to improve and jog north. If we go from I-20 to cutter before it gets here, I'm going to quit the forum. I believe one wave will settle in well over us.

I still think the Deep South could get one before us too. This far south jet stream would be their pattern. On the retreat north we can score as long as it's not too north like 18Z. Consensus remains good or even south - right where I like it a week out.

[John1122]

18 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Maybe this has been talked about but I’m starting to think we are actually dealing with two events. 1 on Tuesday and another at the end of the week. The GFS starts to bring moisture north on Tuesday but completely loses it, then it kicks in on Friday. The other mods show the Tuesday event but some of them are showing signals of return flow at the end of the week. 

The GFS holds energy back I believe and let's it go later in the week. The other models bring it all out at once. That's why it is showing two possible storms I believe. 

 

[vortexse93]

I know I have used this graphic before, but when looking at the operational runs of the models, especially the EURO and EURO-AI the trend shows Central MS into TN being on the drier side. For reference, the PWAT anomaly is also posted and they almost overlapped perfectly at this stage of the game. The main concerns that the models are focusing on will be the southern AL/GA/FL and possibility SC. Not sure what the GFS is doing at the moment as it looks to be the odd man out.

If the trends continue to go this route, could see a historic winter event across the Deep South. All of this is based on location of the sfc Low, timing of  both the precip and temp. I think by this weekend we will have better idea and hopefully the models get their act together as well. 

I am also really conservative when it comes to winter weather it is one of the most difficult things to forecast and it takes 1 deg to make a difference between precip type. But given the data at hand, if I am along the coast, I would be watching this system very closely. I am just not sure how far north the winter precip will extend. I think that is where the uncertainty is at in all of this. 

[John1122]

18z Euro continued the N trend. 

[nrgjeff]

The PWAT charts above do not kill Tennessee snow chances. Remember snow, especially dry snow, carries very little liquid compared to rain. I hope central Mississippi can score. It's even more magical in the Deep South.

Then I want to get TROWAL'ed over here in East Tenn. TROWAL me! Talk dirty to me.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Then I want to get TROWAL'ed over here in East Tenn. TROWAL me! Talk dirty to me.

We desperately need thunder Friday night. 

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, vortexse93 said:

I know I have used this graphic before, but when looking at the operational runs of the models, especially the EURO and EURO-AI the trend shows Central MS into TN being on the drier side. For reference, the PWAT anomaly is also posted and they almost overlapped perfectly at this stage of the game. The main concerns that the models are focusing on will be the southern AL/GA/FL and possibility SC. Not sure what the GFS is doing at the moment as it looks to be the odd man out.

If the trends continue to go this route, could see a historic winter event across the Deep South. All of this is based on location of the sfc Low, timing of  both the precip and temp. I think by this weekend we will have better idea and hopefully the models get their act together as well. 

I am also really conservative when it comes to winter weather it is one of the most difficult things to forecast and it takes 1 deg to make a difference between precip type. But given the data at hand, if I am along the coast, I would be watching this system very closely. I am just not sure how far north the winter precip will extend. I think that is where the uncertainty is at in all of this. 

Got a great friend who is from Jackson, MS.  Glad you got your red tag!

[Carvers Gap]

Bastardi is saying the PDO (CFS) is showing warm water getting to the coast by Feb.  I am noticing the Euro Weeklies pushing back the warm-up into February.  If it pushes back three more weeks...we will have made it to spring!  Now, before we say he is biased cold, it is worth noting his winter forecast is WARM.  It could bust if February goes cold.  Again, seeing some subtle changes in ext ensembles for February.