Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[John1122]

The next 10 days will see this winter go down as either epic, or an epic disappointment. We basically have all our chips in and a face card showing, but so does the dealer. Do we flip an ace? Do we go bust?  

[Coach B]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The next 10 days will see this winter go down as either epic, or an epic disappointment. We basically have all our chips in and a face card showing, but so does the dealer. Do we flip an ace? Do we go bust?  

Are we going to swing and miss like 2014 or hit it out of the park like 85?

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro has 3 systems that track along the Gulf but are mostly suppressed still. Its in bed with the Canadian in that the Canadian had a few waves but obviously less suppressed than the Euro. 

Would be a kick in the pants to see so many underperform on the last storm and then watch areas of the deep south find a foot plus next week while we see flurries and pipe busting cold.  lol  Kidding aside, my money is on a trough that is further west and a track that adjusts further north and west with time also.  The GEFS seems to be hinting at this the last several runs.  I guess time will tell.

[Knoxtron]

10ish Day Model Roundup (ECMF Ensemble is 0z run)

240 Hr Deterministic : Canadian-GFS-GFS 4 Run Comparison-ECMF-ECMF 4 Run Comparison

 

240 Hr Ensembles: CMC Ensembles - CMC MEAN-GFS Ensembles - GFS MEAN - ECMF Ensembles - ECMF MEAN

[tnweathernut]

The ultimate ultimate slap in the face (in addition to the above) would be 72-96 straight hours of below freezing cold with some below zero stuff, only to warm up and rain 24 hours later.  lol

[bearman]

6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The ultimate ultimate slap in the face (in addition to the above) would be 72-96 straight hours of below freezing cold with some below zero stuff, only to warm up and rain 24 hours later.  lol

How many times has similar things happened.  Just saying.  This could be the exception.

[WinterWonderland]

52 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Feb 2nd-4th 1996 is as close as we've come to it in January in my memory. It's actually fairly rare to get more than 12 inches in a single January storm. Those seem to come more in February and even March or November.

I'm almost 70 years old and have lived in East TN most of my life. The Feb 1996 storm that you mention John, is the most memorable to me as far as the snow and cold. You couldn't see grass or pavement for about 2 weeks here in Oak Ridge. 22 inches was measured at my house and it snowed off and on for a week. It was very cold and and I've never seen snow come down that hard. We were in sledding heaven! The blizzard of 93 pales in comparison as far as Oak Ridge goes, IMO. Though the thundersnow was awesome and the snow was deep, it went away quickly.

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The ultimate ultimate slap in the face (in addition to the above) would be 72-96 straight hours of below freezing cold with some below zero stuff, only to warm up and rain 24 hours later.  lol

Unfortunately, that's what happened in 2018. Gulf coast snow while we were dry and then a nice juicy rainer as soon as the cold unlocked. 

In December 1982 it did that three times. Cutter, below zero cold with flurries, then cutter, back below zero etc. 

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, WinterWonderland said:

I'm almost 70 years old and have lived in East TN most of my life. The Feb 1996 storm that you mention John, is the most memorable to me as far as the snow and cold. You couldn't see grass or pavement for about 2 weeks here in Oak Ridge. 22 inches was measured at my house and it snowed off and on for a week. It was very cold and and I've never seen snow come down that hard. We were in sledding heaven! The blizzard of 93 pales in comparison as far as Oak Ridge goes, IMO. Though the thundersnow was awesome and the snow was deep, it went away quickly.

It's one of the most severe winter storms the Tennessee Valley ever saw. It stretched back into West Tennessee more so than the blizzard. That event and '85 were the times I've seen -20s imby. 

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Unfortunately, that's what happened in 2018. Gulf coast snow while we were dry and then a nice juicy rainer as soon as the cold unlocked. 

In December 1982 it did that three times. Cutter, below zero cold with flurries, then cutter, back below zero etc. 

It's probably the second best thing northeast TN excels with.  The first is dryslots and downsloping.  haha

[PowellVolz]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

There were 14-foot drifts here during the blizzard of '93. I used to have the local paper that showed houses with snow over the roof that was published two weeks after the blizzard. I still have the paper from a few days after, when a woman from Ohio talks about having moved here recently and she had to go to a neighbors house after her electric went out during the storm and that she had to walk across snow up to her shoulders to get across the highway to their house. It's still the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Flakes the size of dimes during the day, and we got 11 inches of snow in one 3 hour period from around 8am til 11 am.

We may need a sub thread for the 93’ storm. Or just past events in general. Snow and severe. 

[Uncle Nasty]

4 hours ago, Neals said:

When we get winter storms it reminds me of Toot. He was in our group of friends and we use to ride around in high school in snow weather. He had a website and tracked storms 10 years back before he passed away at a young age. I see guys here that use to linger in there. 

I still have Tennessee Weather Spot on my favorites on an older computer. The site doesn't work anymore, but I actually pulled it up last week out of curiosity. The site is now down and  It wouldn't let me log in. If I remember  correctly, didn't he die young from heart disease? Man, I used to love reading the arguments between Toot and other posters. I sort of remember he lived in Cocke County  and playing the mandolin. I never met him in person,  I just remember reading  his posts over the years. 

[PowellVolz]

20 minutes ago, bearman said:

How many times has similar things happened.  Just saying.  This could be the exception.

The 93’ storm it was 70 degrees a few days before and 70 degrees about a week later. We had a EF3 tornado tracked through North Knox County in February. 

[bearman]

 

14 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

I still have Tennessee Weather Spot on my favorites on an older computer. The site doesn't work anymore, but I actually pulled it up last week out of curiosity. The site is now down and  It wouldn't let me log in. If I remember  correctly, didn't he die young from heart disease? Man, I used to love reading the arguments between Toot and other posters. 

 

Nothing like remembering old friends and good times.

[Icy Hot]

I certainly remember 93 but don’t remember 96 being much here in Kingsport except the largest snow “feathers” I have ever seen. I kid you not, wider than my hands. Must have been some magic in the dendrite zone.

[Daniel Boone]

58 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The ultimate ultimate slap in the face (in addition to the above) would be 72-96 straight hours of below freezing cold with some below zero stuff, only to warm up and rain 24 hours later.  lol

Always the worry when a big one misses us to the South. I've saw that play out several times. Talk about Anguish! lol

[nrgjeff]

Models have been improving the last 12 hours since my last post. Looking at Ops AI and ensembles. 

06/12Z GFS have a true TROWAL behind the main WAA later this week - a recipe for several inches of snow. Other models have light overrunning. Few blank us now. 

Few details. Work is really busy. I'm also following current events - but for that you'll have to visit Randy's hood to see my thoughts.

[Icy Hot]

For now - MRX seems unimpressed. Morning disco - 

Early next week, anomalous cold arrives with temperatures expected
to be below freezing for an extended period of time - perhaps 2 to 3
days or more for much of the region. There is high confidence in
very cold air moving into the region. There is also relatively high
confidence in one or two low pressure systems taking a southern
storm track across the Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas; however,
there is low confidence in the amount of moisture this far north. At
this time, it is unlikely that we receive much in the way of
precipitation from these systems, but any deviation in the track
slightly northward would bring impactful snow to the area.

[nrgjeff]

Solid until - unlikely we receive much. Though at 25 deg. a tenth inch QPF is 2-3 inches of snow.

[TellicoWx]

5 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Solid until - unlikely we receive much. Though at 25 deg. a tenth inch QPF is 2-3 inches of snow.

Not going to take much...if moisture can pull north this will be a very high ratio event.

[TellicoWx]

Not sure I have ever seen a DGZ this large...from 975 all the way to 500 (sounding from Chatt area on CMC). I would imagine that would have the potential to produce even more snow than modeled...not sure exactly.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS snow swaths:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Thanks to the magic of Euro AI we can now live in the make believe world of visible satellite imagery. 12z AIFS, next Tuesday through Saturday:

 

[*Flash*]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Euro has 3 systems that track along the Gulf but are mostly suppressed still. Its in bed with the Canadian in that the Canadian had a few waves but obviously less suppressed than the Euro. 

Wait, so it's a water bed? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It gives you point and click meteograms too:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-simulated-vis?base_time=202501151200&layer_name=sim_image_vis_ch1&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501250600

 

[tnweathernut]

40 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

For now - MRX seems unimpressed. Morning disco - 

Early next week, anomalous cold arrives with temperatures expected
to be below freezing for an extended period of time - perhaps 2 to 3
days or more for much of the region. There is high confidence in
very cold air moving into the region. There is also relatively high
confidence in one or two low pressure systems taking a southern
storm track across the Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas; however,
there is low confidence in the amount of moisture this far north. At
this time the heaviest precipitation from these systems is modeled to
stay south of the viewing area, but any deviation in the track
slightly northward would bring impactful snow to the area.

Fixed it for them ....

[bearman]

The new afternoon MRX disco discounts snow chances as well.                                                                                                                                                                                    

For the early part of next week, the main weather impact will be
extreme cold temperatures, driven by an Arctic High originating in
northern Canada. Current model guidance indicates this high to
remain very strong (near 1045mb) and gradually become centered over
the area. Very deep troughing and 850mb temperatures nearing -20
Celsius will near record low values for this time of year.
Confidence is fairly high for most places to see highs in the 20s
Monday and Tuesday, possibly even in the teens. The strength of
subsidence and CAA also make the case for many places to drop into
the single digits, despite a lack of predicted snow cover. At this
range, it is unclear how much wind may result, but wind chills could
easily reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Past climate data shows
that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3
years in the area. The other question will be if any system develop
and track close to our area next week. Based on current model data
and the strength of the Arctic High, potential is fairly limited,
but this is still a possibility.

 

[Matthew70]

Ok models.  Time to get the HOT sign going! 

[ShawnEastTN]

43 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Wait, so it's a water bed? 

To be fair this feels like an environment and setup unlike anything since the time of waterbeds.

[tnweathernut]

43 minutes ago, bearman said:

The new afternoon MRX disco discounts snow chances as well.                                                                                                                                                                                    

For the early part of next week, the main weather impact will be
extreme cold temperatures, driven by an Arctic High originating in
northern Canada. Current model guidance indicates this high to
remain very strong (near 1045mb) and gradually become centered over
the area. Very deep troughing and 850mb temperatures nearing -20
Celsius will near record low values for this time of year.
Confidence is fairly high for most places to see highs in the 20s
Monday and Tuesday, possibly even in the teens. The strength of
subsidence and CAA also make the case for many places to drop into
the single digits, despite a lack of predicted snow cover. At this
range, it is unclear how much wind may result, but wind chills could
easily reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Past climate data shows
that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3
years in the area. The other question will be if any system develop
and track close to our area next week. Based on current model data
and the strength of the Arctic High, potential is fairly limited,
but this is still a possibility.

 

"Past climate data shows that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3 years in the area."

Am i mistaken, or will we have we had Cold Weather Advisory criteria for 3 STRAIGHT years if next weeks cold comes to pass?