Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z Euro has a very strong Arctic(?) front later in its run.  It has had this pretty consistently for the past few days.  I am sure agencies in the areas working where Helene hit are starting to prepare - sources for heat, warm clothes, food, and temporary trailers winterized.  Transportation in many areas is still an issue.

[matt9697]

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Great info beavis, John, and Boone.  We had 1-2’ drifts from that in Scott, Co, Virginia.  The wind chills with that front in SW VA were insane.  I don’t want to embellish, but maybe in the -50s?  Our farm thermometer got to -26F.   

It probably was, I was a teenager back then and didnt really realize how rare that air was. Here is an interesting clip from the Weather Channel, about 2:30 into the clip he goes over the current temps. Nashville was -11 at that time of the show with a windchill of -56

 

[Carvers Gap]

In my mind, it doesn't take much of a jump to get to a point to where we see an overrunning event such as ice due to WAA and cold air getting trapped in the eastern valley and then followed a few days later by an ana front.  We could end-up just with dry cold, but there is a decent amount of energy in that northern stream along with WAA attacking periodically retreating cold air. 

[*Flash*]

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 0z Euro has a very strong Arctic(?) front later in its run.  It has had this pretty consistently for the past few days.  I am sure agencies in the areas working where Helene hit are starting to prepare - sources for heat, warm clothes, food, and temporary trailers winterized.  Transportation in many areas is still an issue.

As a Reservist for Hope Force International, I can confirm this region is still well on our minds. 

[Carvers Gap]

It looks like the timing of the first of several cold front is late on January 1.  The GEFS is a few hours slower.  After that, I think we we see a series of cold fronts(warmth surging in between each front for 1-2 days), and then cold returning.  The EPO ridge is in a place where it can deliver very cold air.  Right now, the 0z Euro is the coldest.  The ensembles aren't warm.  

To be clear, I don't see 1985 cold air on the map.  If we were to get snow on the ground prior to a cold front moving in, I would imagine below zero temps would be possible and even probable in some locations.  Real feels could be rough with a couple of these cold fronts.  

I think the potential is there for the cold to run from Jan 2nd to roughly the 20th.  Then the trough tries to work back into the Mountain West.  I know many are saying the game is up by then.  That might be correct, but cold is somehow (assuming the upcoming cold verifies) finding its way into the East against some pretty stacked analogs(though a smaller cold analog group exists for January which is completely opposite of the warm analogs).   If the NAO were to fire into February, it isn't unthinkable that the cold moves into the Mountain West and still manages to find its way eastward.  Some Weeklies ext runs are showing that.  

It is always possible or a reversal on modeling.  That seems to have been the norm during the past few years.  However, the first cold front is well within range now.  Even on the Apple weather app, the first cold shot is present.  So, the cold is just on Weeklies maps.  It is within ten days.  Counting today, we have about five more days before the cold returns.

[Met1985]

35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 0z Euro has a very strong Arctic(?) front later in its run.  It has had this pretty consistently for the past few days.  I am sure agencies in the areas working where Helene hit are starting to prepare - sources for heat, warm clothes, food, and temporary trailers winterized.  Transportation in many areas is still an issue.

Yeah I know they are trying to get campers in here for everyone who are still in tents. We've already had several mornings around 10 degrees this season. 

[Carvers Gap]

21 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

As a Reservist for Hope Force International, I can confirm this region is still well on our minds. 

That is awesome, man.  I talked to someone over Christmas(who repairs construction equipment) who said the roads are still in pretty bad shape in some areas.  Crews are doing massive amounts(mind boggling how much they have fixed) of work both on roads and getting people into housing...but it is a big lift in those areas.   Most mornings I see convoys of concrete trucks and gravel heading that way.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I know they are trying to get campers in here for everyone who are still in tents. We've already had several mornings around 10 degrees this season. 

Yes, those are the folks I am thinking of specifically.  Those are hardy folks.  I don't want to cause more alarm than necessary, but the scenario is there for it to get really cold above 2500'.  It isn't anything folks in those areas haven't seen before, but in a camper...those are different circumstances than previous winters.  If roads get icy for extended amounts of time(can't get to them), that is the main concern.   

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z Euro is what has my attention in terms of cold....that lobe over southern Hudson Bay rotates down into SW VA.  I have seen this on a few runs now in one form or another.  The Euro, with the exception of yesterday's 0z, has had many of the coldest solutions.  One could make a case that the worst of the cold is over by the 9th.  However, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 10th - 20th have one more reload of this.

To be fair, this is an operational model and probably shouldn't be used for details at this range.  This is just an example.  Most ensembles are picking up on a fairly strong cold shot between the 7th-9th being displaced decently southward into the Upper South.  I could be an issue for agriculture in Florida as well if that verifies.

 

[beavis1729]

39 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

It probably was, I was a teenager back then and didnt really realize how rare that air was. Here is an interesting clip from the Weather Channel, about 2:30 into the clip he goes over the current temps. Nashville was -11 at that time of the show with a windchill of -56

 

Not to minimize that extreme event of course, but it would translate to approximately -35F on the new/current wind chill scale. 

[Carvers Gap]

Interestingly for TRI, the airport made it to -21F just looking at records.  The previous night was -16F.  Those would obviously be all-time lows.  The airport sits up on a knoll, and if memory serves me correctly, it didn't get as cold as other areas deeper/downstream in the valleys.  I got to -26F in my local (southwest Virginia) with about 15mph winds(conservative estimate...drifts were 1-2')...so new scale would have me in the low -50s for WCs.  NE TN got wicked cold.  I have shared this before, but we were fixing pipes under my house in the middle of that.  I also remember my dad putting a starter in our '72 Impala in the K-mart parking lot(now U-Haul).  I have never been that cold since.  Very rare weather set-up to bring a piece of the PV into the eastern valley.

Interestingly, we have had some really cold wind chills during the past couple of years.  Those wind chills would likely rival the mid 1980s.  A good friend noted that we seem to be going below zero in the eastern valley a bit more after a long lull.  

Anyway, great conversation and a fun walk down memory lane.  That all time record low can stay right where it is.  LOL.  

[Met1985]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Interestingly for TRI, the airport made it to -21F just looking at records.  The previous night was -16F.  Those would obviously be all-time lows.  The airport sits up on a knoll, and if memory serves me correctly, it didn't get as cold as other areas deeper/downstream in the valleys.  I got to -26F in my local (southwest Virginia) with about 15mph winds(conservative estimate...drifts were 1-2')...so new scale would have me in the low -50s for WCs.  NE TN got wicked cold.  I have shared this before, but we were fixing pipes under my house in the middle of that.  I also remember my dad putting a starter in our '72 Impala in the K-mart parking lot(now U-Haul).  I have never been that cold since.  Very rare weather set-up to bring a piece of the PV into the eastern valley.

Interestingly, we have had some really cold wind chills during the past couple of years.  Those wind chills would likely rival the mid 1980s.  A good friend noted that we seem to be going below zero in the eastern valley a bit more after a long lull.  

Anyway, great conversation and a fun walk down memory lane.  That all time record low can stay right where it is.  LOL.  

Yeah I remember my mom telling me it was so cold engines were freezing up, and that everything just kind of came to a standstill.  

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Great info beavis, John, and Boone.  We had 1-2’ drifts from that in Scott, Co, Virginia.  The wind chills with that front in SW VA were insane.  I don’t want to embellish, but maybe in the -50s?  Our farm thermometer got to -26F.   

Yes, started to mention the wind too. Wind chill did hit the -50's and there were Blizzard conditions as the Snow fell.

[nrgjeff]

Getting caught up. Y'all write a lot overnight, lol!

Re the Tomer Burg tweet(s) yeah blocking sometimes goes longer than progged. I feel like that held truer a decade ago. Seems that climate change also means less stable blocking patterns. However blocking can still be quite intense when it's on.

Overnight both models dried out a little on the 6-10 day winter precip. (06Z GFS exception NY) Still got fronts, but not much action. How about severe wx January 5-6? Then they introduce another chance of snow in the 11-15 day. Just keeps pushing out.

Closing positive. We all know if we are going to get thumped it'll show up like 3 days out. Ripple in the stream escalates. Let's hope!

[Reb]

GFS coming in with a nice clipper, pushed the marginal event out of the way.

[Carvers Gap]

Well, that was a proper run, 12z GFS.  One right after another.....

[John1122]

57 minutes ago, Reb said:

GFS coming in with a nice clipper, pushed the marginal event out of the way.

It pretty much maxed out the potential pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

[Carvers Gap]

Honestly, too many events to count on that run.  Whatever you like, the 12z GFS was dishing it up.  Been a minute since I have seen a run like that.

[Carvers Gap]

More....

 

[Carvers Gap]

Ice storm - check

Miller A - check

Slider - check

Clipper - check

As John noted, that is probably a maxed out run, but it was fun to look at!

[Carvers Gap]

The 12 CMC was on the "GFS light" plan.   The Euro is gonna come in bone dry......LOL.  Why?  We have to have all options on the table after the 12z suite.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS/GEPS don't look too dissimilar regarding this....

 

[John1122]

The Euro found the same system as the GFS on the 6th  but it's a cutter on the Euro.

[Daniel Boone]

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEFS/GEPS don't look too dissimilar regarding this....

 

Actually, models started taking more of the '96 look couple days ago and definitely showing it now. Systems in '96 Travelled from the Pac NW southeastward under the Block and would phase with southern branch or miller b to miller A transfer as touched on few days ago. That's basically what this looks like. If realized we're in business !

[BooneWX]

Came here for a dose of optimism that I can’t find on the Southeast forum and it delivered. 
 

The Euro Ens shows a very nice tick west with the trough axis. It’s no longer in New England and now sits over the lakes and Ohio Valley. That’s right where both forums are going to want it. Let’s hope it’s right! I think the models are starting to adjust to the ridging over the Atlantic. 

[Carvers Gap]

This is just nasty....

 

[Carvers Gap]

49 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro found the same system as the GFS on the 6th  but it's a cutter on the Euro.

LOL.  Of course it would! 

[Carvers Gap]

46 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Actually, models started taking more of the '96 look couple days ago and definitely showing it now. Systems in '96 Travelled from the Pac NW southeastward under the Block and would phase with southern branch or miller b to miller A transfer as touched on few days ago. That's basically what this looks like. If realized we're in business !

I was expecting a toasty day today, but I am about to freeze my tail off in this wind! 

And yes, super interesting storm track.  As you know well, these storm tracks aren't unprecedented, and we are overdue a good stretch of winter.

[Carvers Gap]

Image 1:  Amazing to see the EPS(ensemble!) that cold.

Image 2:  7 day mean...10F below normal for January is gonna be cold if that verifies.

 

Image 3:  I have been waiting for the EPS snow mean to show this.

 

Image 4:  Again, the Canadian model often does better in our area when it gets really cold.  Shave off a few degrees, but it is decent.

 

Image 5:  The GEFS has consistently been throwing out decent snow totals for this time frame.  And interestingly, as John noted yesterday, the Jan 10-20 range might be the better time frame for snow.

 

When we see ensembles looking like this, that is a good signal for wintry precip.