Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS...I feel like I just watched 40 model runs of that scenario.  LOL

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, John1122 said:

The Canadian looks like it's paying double.

That would be ideal

[Carvers Gap]

Wow at the Canadian, Holston.  I hadn't even looked.  Man, what a storm.

[matt9697]

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

They knew pretty well in advance.  I don't think many believed the ones who knew.  Weather modeling nailed that thing from 7-8 days out.  I think it was TWC that began to cover it early.  I remember a news station in Knoxville saying that something was brewing.  It was kind of the public awakening to computer weather modeling.  It was a reasonably simply phase along an Arctic front.  Unfortunately, I now watch every Arctic front for this very phenomena.  That storm is one that sits alone on a shelf, and likely will never be joined in its classification.  70mph wind gusts in the valleys with wind driven snow. It hit on a weekend which is an interesting coincidence for many great storms.

We were on the outer edge here in Sumner county. I can only imagine what it must have been like to be in the thick of things. I remember it because was the only time I have ever seen snow fall in sheets from the sky and what fell was being blown around so much it was really hard to know how much had fallen. 

[Carvers Gap]

GFS and CMC both with significant winter storms.  

[matt9697]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

GFS and CMC both with significant winter storms.  

The CMC is a crushing blow to the state but I mean look at MS and AL, that would be state of emergency level. 

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, man.  In the words of the great Ted Lasso, "Barbecue sauce."

[matt9697]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, man.  In the words of the great Ted Lasso, "Barbecue sauce."

I think it is safe to say at this range that something is cooking for next week and likely have barbecue sauce! I cannot imagine someplace like Huntsville getting close to 20" of snow. This is like one of the only times I dont want to see a NW jog! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not necessarily related immediately, but I was looking at the upstream over the Pac to try and see some of these features and man, what a split flow:

[Carvers Gap]

So, I think we can say the strong Arctic front means business.  How the STJ(subtropical jet) interacts with it is still....up in the air.  Sorry, really bad Dad joke on my part, @*Flash*.  I couldn't resist.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Not necessarily related immediately, but I was looking at the upstream over the Pac to try and see some of these features and man, what a split flow:

Connect that with a strong Arctic front, and we get the 12z suite so far.  

[ShawnEastTN]

3 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

I think it is safe to say at this range that something is cooking for next week and likely have barbecue sauce! I cannot imagine someplace like Huntsville getting close to 20" of snow. This is like one of the only times I dont want to see a NW jog! 

For them and many it would rival the Blizzard of 93 in amounts.  Though the Blizzard was much much more than just snow amounts the wind was absolutely insane.  I think Birmingham got 18" not 100% sure what Huntsville got.

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

We were on the outer edge here in Sumner county. I can only imagine what it must have been like to be in the thick of things. I remember it because was the only time I have ever seen snow fall in sheets from the sky and what fell was being blown around so much it was really hard to know how much had fallen. 

Went driving with my friend Bill C from Powell (@PowellVolzmight have known Bill).  Bill passed away recently.  Bill had a yellow jeep.  We drove out in the middle of that storm.  It probably wasn't the wisest of moves, but I was in college and didn't know better.  That said, the wind and the snow was something like you would see at higher elevations.  The snow was almost like a mist.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z kuchera for the GFS is no joke, folks.  I still think this Sunday system is causing some problems or maybe is a symptom of the problem.  How the jet buckles is going to be key.  The CMC, as Holston noted, went with wave 1 after Sunday.  The GFS held back and caught the second wave.  Yeah, sounds like surfing...sorry.

[Bigbald]

12z cmc has some areas in Tennessee valley snowing for 30 plus hours!  

[matt9697]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Went driving with my friend Bill C from Powell (@PowellVolzmight have known Bill).  Bill passed away recently.  Bill had a yellow jeep.  We drove out in the middle of that storm.  It probably wasn't the wisest of moves, but I was in college and didn't know better.  That said, the wind and the snow was something like you would see at higher elevations.  The snow was almost like a mist.  

Yea that is the way it was here in Sumner County. A friend of mine tried to get his cabin out at Center Hill Lake but the State Troopers had 40 closed I believe at Lebanon, just too many people stranded on the road evidently. I remember being able to look at the cedar trees for years after and being able to tell where the heaviest snows fell as their branches were still bent and or had whole sides gone. 

[Carvers Gap]

The scenario is there for this to be more than one.

[John1122]

There were 14-foot drifts here during the blizzard of '93. I used to have the local paper that showed houses with snow over the roof that was published two weeks after the blizzard. I still have the paper from a few days after, when a woman from Ohio talks about having moved here recently and she had to go to a neighbors house after her electric went out during the storm and that she had to walk across snow up to her shoulders to get across the highway to their house. It's still the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Flakes the size of dimes during the day, and we got 11 inches of snow in one 3 hour period from around 8am til 11 am.

[Carvers Gap]

When we see ensembles at 144 which are below zero (actual temps), we are dealing with significant cold.

[Neals]

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Went driving with my friend Bill C from Powell (@PowellVolzmight have known Bill).  Bill passed away recently.  Bill had a yellow jeep.  We drove out in the middle of that storm.  It probably wasn't the wisest of moves, but I was in college and didn't know better.  That said, the wind and the snow was something like you would see at higher elevations.  The snow was almost like a mist.  

When we get winter storms it reminds me of Toot. He was in our group of friends and we use to ride around in high school in snow weather. He had a website and tracked storms 10 years back before he passed away at a young age. I see guys here that use to linger in there. 

[TellicoWx]

Main thing to me is the models are sending up big red flags for something coming in the SE. High impact events (snow/severe/flooding etc..), the honking usually starts blaring within this range...OPs give you the potential...Ensembles give you the impact area generally.

[tnweathernut]

2 hours ago, matt9697 said:

Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer....

Some mets were on it around a week out.  Many laughed at them.  They certainly didn't have anything close to them modeling we have now, but the now archaic model(s) they had locked in early and didn't waver a lot.  It was called the storm of the century, but was also probably the best forecast system of that century........

There was a northwest shift that happened that screwed many in the Carolinas.  James Spann (Birmingham met) has several good videos that covered the system as it was happening on YouTube.

[tnweathernut]

9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Main thing to me is the models are sending up big red flags for something coming in the SE. High impact events (snow/severe/flooding etc..), the honking usually starts blaring within this range...OPs give you the potential...Ensembles give you the impact area generally.

Was just about to say something similar.  A high impact event is becoming more likely.  Figuring out where (assuming things continue to progress toward an event) will cause all kinds of headaches the next several days, but ensembles will be what I'm looking at the most.

[Jed33]

Wow what a storm! That was a great jog down memory lane guys with the 93 stories! I lived in Jackson, MS at the time and we picked up about 3.5in at my house even there. My Aunt and Uncle on the northeast side of Birmingham picked up 18in. He said he couldn’t even get the doors opened for awhile. Had to have help from some neighbors to get the snow away from the door. 
 

As impactful as the 93 storm was in March though, I gotta think that the results in January would be even more extreme! If you take that storm and put it in January, the low temps would be well below zero for several days and the high temps might not move much from the lows for a day or two. The snow hung around in March 93, but got to think it would hang around a lot longer in January!

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Wow what a storm! That was a great jog down memory lane guys with the 93 stories! I lived in Jackson, MS at the time and we picked up about 3.5in at my house even there. My Aunt and Uncle on the northeast side of Birmingham picked up 18in. He said he couldn’t even get the doors opened for awhile. Had to have help from some neighbors to get the snow away from the door. 
 

As impactful as the 93 storm was in March though, I gotta think that the results in January would be even more extreme! If you take that storm and put it in January, the low temps would be well below zero for several days and the high temps might not move much from the lows for a day or two. The snow hung around in March 93, but got to think it would hang around a lot longer in January!

Feb 2nd-4th 1996 is as close as we've come to it in January in my memory. It's actually fairly rare to get more than 12 inches in a single January storm. Those seem to come more in February and even March or November.

[bearman]

3 hours ago, matt9697 said:

Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer....

I remember listening to the Weekend Met for News Channel 9 out of Chattanooga on the Sunday evening, almost a full week out from the storm of 93 that would start the next Friday evening. He was honking the first warnings about the potential of a multi inch system.  I remember thinking how odd it was that he was speaking so confidently about a system so far out and talking about it being several inches.  It was also strange to me because it had been so warm and late in the season.  I had just come out of the Garden tending my Broccoli that was the size of dinner plates.

[TellicoWx]

12z Ukie maintains the storm..south of area.

[John1122]

The Euro is just firing shot after shot.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is just firing shot after shot.

The AI has been all over GA low development Sunday across GA on the tail end of the cold front for a couple of days now. VERY consistent from what I have seen.  Doesn't mean it has to happen, but I've been intrigued by its consistency since it's a sneaky little 2-4 or 3-6 potential snow system for east TN that's now working inside of day 4ish.

[John1122]

The Euro has 3 systems that track along the Gulf but are mostly suppressed still. Its in bed with the Canadian in that the Canadian had a few waves but obviously less suppressed than the Euro.