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Winter 2024/2025 January Thread


AMZ8990
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06 GFS amped up and hit hard for most of the forum. Nasty ice storm 81 corridor unfortunately. I assume due to downslope warming because it's trying to ice in NE areas still as the storm runs up 95 in NC. Such a monster the freezing rain areas end up with 10 inches of snow. Nearly 20 on the Plateau.

 

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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think something like 24 out of 50 0z EPS members show a nice stripe of snow either over SE TN one to two hundred miles south. Approximately (what each person considers a big dog is subjective) 10-15 of those look like big dogs with all the colors we like to see on snow maps. 

Was just going to say that the 0z Euro ensembles are honking for pretty much all of E TN.

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Really what keeps this from going out to sea is the phase.  No phase.  No storm for all but the most southern parts of the forum.  It is simple as that.  The system in front (Sunday) is super wonky, and it is messing with the dynamics of the system (the bigger one which is off and on modeling) that follows.  Spacing between the two storms and the strength of that first system matters.  Right now, that first system is so wonky, I am not even sure what we actually want it to do!  There is a lee side low that forms. I haven't looked closely, but if the strength of that lee side might be influencing what follows.  The second system...the phase doesn't look overly complicated like it did with last weekend's system.  However, the timing of the waves, amplitude and wavelength frequency are huge.  That first system is causing changes in that.  

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18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Really what keeps this from going out to sea is the phase.  No phase.  No storm for all but the most southern parts of the forum.  It is simple as that.  The system in front (Sunday) is super wonky, and it is messing with the dynamics of the system (the bigger one which is off and on modeling) that follows.  Spacing between the two storms and the strength of that first system matters.  Right now, that first system is so wonky, I am not even sure what we actually want it to do!  There is a lee side low that forms. I haven't looked closely, but if the strength of that lee side might be influencing what follows.  The second system...the phase doesn't look overly complicated like it did with last weekend's system.  However, the timing of the waves, amplitude and wavelength frequency are huge.  That first system is causing changes in that.  

Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer....

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I am sure nobody will be looking at the 12z suite :).   This feels like something big is brewing for somebody in the southeast.

I'll be interested to see how the models hone in on timing, 6z gfs sees it starting 18z thursday, last night cmc had it Tuesday midnight.

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1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer....

The Weather Channel was on it well in advance.   They were my go-to source for weather back in the day.  I always knew what time they would talk about the extended forecast in depth.  I would stop what I was doing and hustle to watch it.  I also read afternoon discussions by the National Weather Service.  But it all started with my grandparent's weather radio even before the TWC.  (We have at least two news weather mets on our own forum who probably worked those '93 shifts....maybe more)  

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Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer....
I remember local Met in Chattanooga was watching it a week out staying consistent and at about the 5 day mark he being a new Met to Chattanooga originally from Chicago shocked Chattanooga by saying the word Blizzard on live TV. He said a Blizzard was coming to Chattanooga 5 days in advance and he was joked about until it happened. Met Paul Barys at WRCB. I will always remember that and the storm until I die.
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1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer....

They knew pretty well in advance.  I don't think many believed the ones who knew.  Weather modeling nailed that thing from 7-8 days out.  I think it was TWC that began to cover it early.  I remember a news station in Knoxville saying that something was brewing.  It was kind of the public awakening to computer weather modeling.  It was a reasonably simply phase along an Arctic front.  Unfortunately, I now watch every Arctic front for this very phenomena.  That storm is one that sits alone on a shelf, and likely will never be joined in its classification.  70mph wind gusts in the valleys with wind driven snow. It hit on a weekend which is an interesting coincidence for many great storms.

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MJO stuff....

Euro keeps winter rolling right into February with a week long break at the end of January.  Hopefully, the Euro is better with the MJO.  I can't remember which.  We just need a quick rotation through the warm phases like it shows.

0cc114fe-14e8-4427-8473-c6ae9229012e.png

The GEFS ext pretty much ends winter at the end of January.....high amplitude 6 members!  Yikes.  LOL.   But if they can swing into 8 at high amplitude, the end of Feb could be interesting.
593c16a4-c337-4cfe-9e77-4c71095aeb50.png

 

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15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

They knew pretty well in advance.  I don't think many believed the ones who knew.  Weather modeling nailed that thing from 7-8 days out.  I think it was TWC that began to cover it early.  I remember a news station in Knoxville saying that something was brewing.  It was kind of the public awakening to computer weather modeling.  It was a reasonably simply phase along an Arctic front.  Unfortunately, I now watch every Arctic front for this very phenomena.  That storm is one that sits alone on a shelf, and likely will never be joined in its classification.  70mph wind gusts in the valleys with wind driven snow. It hit on a weekend which is an interesting coincidence for many great storms.

That was the best and funnest Storm in my antique life ! The sad thing for me is I videoed it and a Cousin of mine from Northern Ohio visited once and borrowed the video tape. I never got it back . He said it got damaged when it was in the trunk of his Car. 

   I can recall the constant roar of the Wind. It was absolutely amazing ! I received 20" at my home with 6 ft Drifts. Thing is, amounts varied greatly in some cases, at short distance..Convection was prevalent as well as downsloping in that monster Storm. Just 2 miles from my house there was 24-26 inches in the Level with 6-8' Drifts while about a mile south of Pennington gap just wsw of the Knob(ele., (3120 ft )on Wallens Ridge in the Valley just  around 11" was observed ! That area is due wsw of High Knob and the highest peaks of Powell Mountain and Wallens Ridge. 

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