TellicoWx Posted Wednesday at 04:59 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:59 AM 0z Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 05:10 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:10 AM The snow just gets to Tennessee at the end of the UKIE run at 168, at 162 it hadn’t made it yet, on the Canadian it snowed to hour 192 or 198. I belive we'd see a bigger/better N/NW side with the path it takes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Wednesday at 05:12 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:12 AM 0z GFS may be showing its bias at 500 vs the rest of the 0z models/12z Euro. Gfs is holding the trough up across the four corners...rest roll the trough east toward the gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 06:15 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:15 AM The 18z Euro would have likely looked like a blend of the Canadian and UKIE. It's suppressed for wave two again this run. The Sunday system it brings 1 to 2 inches for parts of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 11:40 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:40 AM 06 GFS amped up and hit hard for most of the forum. Nasty ice storm 81 corridor unfortunately. I assume due to downslope warming because it's trying to ice in NE areas still as the storm runs up 95 in NC. Such a monster the freezing rain areas end up with 10 inches of snow. Nearly 20 on the Plateau. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 11:44 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:44 AM 6z GFS and CMC are nice tracks. I need to check the ensembles, but nice tracks for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Wednesday at 11:46 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:46 AM I think something like 24 out of 50 0z EPS members show a nice stripe of snow either over SE TN or one to two hundred miles south. Approximately (what each person considers a big dog is subjective) 10-15 of those look like big dogs with all the colors we like to see on snow maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 11:47 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:47 AM 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think something like 24 out of 50 0z EPS members show a nice stripe of snow either over SE TN one to two hundred miles south. Approximately (what each person considers a big dog is subjective) 10-15 of those look like big dogs with all the colors we like to see on snow maps. Was just going to say that the 0z Euro ensembles are honking for pretty much all of E TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 11:50 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:50 AM Good trends overnight to have ensembles beginning to creep on board, and have 2/3 of globals show a decent storm. Still a long ways to go. We are kind of in that space where models have trouble with storms(lose them). If they get this one back early, and lock-in...good sign. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 11:53 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:53 AM There was an uptick for Tennessee that run on the GEFS. One thing about all the op runs, when they hit, they are monster storms. Historical even. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 11:59 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:59 AM The Euro AI has another storm 288-300 that's bigger for the west side areas. Another that loses steam as it heads east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Wednesday at 12:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:03 PM 6z GFS phase was beautiful. Very mindful. Very Ehh, a little demure. Puts me in the mind of something else, as anyone who knows me a little probably can guess 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 12:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:57 PM Triple phased? The above by Holston looks like it. Something to keep an eye on as we go forward. It pulls the polar jet in…. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Wednesday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:10 PM 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Triple phased? The above by Holston looks like it. Something to keep an eye on as we go forward. It pulls the polar jet in…. Not sure that we want that; have not looked at any snow or temp maps but man those have to be brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Wednesday at 01:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:15 PM 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Triple phased? The above by Holston looks like it. Something to keep an eye on as we go forward. It pulls the polar jet in…. Interesting solution, like you said, something to keep an eye on. My money is that it will be different next run! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 01:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:43 PM 32 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Not sure that we want that; have not looked at any snow or temp maps but man those have to be brutal If you want a big storm, you want the polar jet to feed energy in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:44 PM 28 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Interesting solution, like you said, something to keep an eye on. My money is that it will be different next run! That is understood at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:51 PM Really what keeps this from going out to sea is the phase. No phase. No storm for all but the most southern parts of the forum. It is simple as that. The system in front (Sunday) is super wonky, and it is messing with the dynamics of the system (the bigger one which is off and on modeling) that follows. Spacing between the two storms and the strength of that first system matters. Right now, that first system is so wonky, I am not even sure what we actually want it to do! There is a lee side low that forms. I haven't looked closely, but if the strength of that lee side might be influencing what follows. The second system...the phase doesn't look overly complicated like it did with last weekend's system. However, the timing of the waves, amplitude and wavelength frequency are huge. That first system is causing changes in that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Smokey Posted Wednesday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:59 PM I am a long-time lurker. Sorry for my ignorance, but is this a wait-and-see once this first system goes through the forum area before we can get consistency in modeling? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Wednesday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:12 PM 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Really what keeps this from going out to sea is the phase. No phase. No storm for all but the most southern parts of the forum. It is simple as that. The system in front (Sunday) is super wonky, and it is messing with the dynamics of the system (the bigger one which is off and on modeling) that follows. Spacing between the two storms and the strength of that first system matters. Right now, that first system is so wonky, I am not even sure what we actually want it to do! There is a lee side low that forms. I haven't looked closely, but if the strength of that lee side might be influencing what follows. The second system...the phase doesn't look overly complicated like it did with last weekend's system. However, the timing of the waves, amplitude and wavelength frequency are huge. That first system is causing changes in that. Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Wednesday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:21 PM Sunday? Woah!!! Interesting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted Wednesday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:42 PM I am sure nobody will be looking at the 12z suite :). This feels like something big is brewing for somebody in the southeast. I'll be interested to see how the models hone in on timing, 6z gfs sees it starting 18z thursday, last night cmc had it Tuesday midnight. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:39 PM 1 hour ago, matt9697 said: Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer.... The Weather Channel was on it well in advance. They were my go-to source for weather back in the day. I always knew what time they would talk about the extended forecast in depth. I would stop what I was doing and hustle to watch it. I also read afternoon discussions by the National Weather Service. But it all started with my grandparent's weather radio even before the TWC. (We have at least two news weather mets on our own forum who probably worked those '93 shifts....maybe more) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Wednesday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:43 PM Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer....I remember local Met in Chattanooga was watching it a week out staying consistent and at about the 5 day mark he being a new Met to Chattanooga originally from Chicago shocked Chattanooga by saying the word Blizzard on live TV. He said a Blizzard was coming to Chattanooga 5 days in advance and he was joked about until it happened. Met Paul Barys at WRCB. I will always remember that and the storm until I die. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:43 PM 1 hour ago, matt9697 said: Something that has always been of interest to me is roughly how far in advance did weather weanies know in March 1993, not that I am saying this is like that, but knowing what we do about modeling. I dont believe that weather forums were around back then as they are now, seems like I used to be on one at accuweather. My point is, if a similar system happened today, I cant help but think that it would initially be dismissed as an impossibility but then as we got closer.... They knew pretty well in advance. I don't think many believed the ones who knew. Weather modeling nailed that thing from 7-8 days out. I think it was TWC that began to cover it early. I remember a news station in Knoxville saying that something was brewing. It was kind of the public awakening to computer weather modeling. It was a reasonably simply phase along an Arctic front. Unfortunately, I now watch every Arctic front for this very phenomena. That storm is one that sits alone on a shelf, and likely will never be joined in its classification. 70mph wind gusts in the valleys with wind driven snow. It hit on a weekend which is an interesting coincidence for many great storms. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:45 PM 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: Sunday? Woah!!! Interesting It is sneaky for E TN! The 12z ICON has it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:52 PM MJO stuff.... Euro keeps winter rolling right into February with a week long break at the end of January. Hopefully, the Euro is better with the MJO. I can't remember which. We just need a quick rotation through the warm phases like it shows. The GEFS ext pretty much ends winter at the end of January.....high amplitude 6 members! Yikes. LOL. But if they can swing into 8 at high amplitude, the end of Feb could be interesting. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Wednesday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:15 PM 15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: They knew pretty well in advance. I don't think many believed the ones who knew. Weather modeling nailed that thing from 7-8 days out. I think it was TWC that began to cover it early. I remember a news station in Knoxville saying that something was brewing. It was kind of the public awakening to computer weather modeling. It was a reasonably simply phase along an Arctic front. Unfortunately, I now watch every Arctic front for this very phenomena. That storm is one that sits alone on a shelf, and likely will never be joined in its classification. 70mph wind gusts in the valleys with wind driven snow. It hit on a weekend which is an interesting coincidence for many great storms. That was the best and funnest Storm in my antique life ! The sad thing for me is I videoed it and a Cousin of mine from Northern Ohio visited once and borrowed the video tape. I never got it back . He said it got damaged when it was in the trunk of his Car. I can recall the constant roar of the Wind. It was absolutely amazing ! I received 20" at my home with 6 ft Drifts. Thing is, amounts varied greatly in some cases, at short distance..Convection was prevalent as well as downsloping in that monster Storm. Just 2 miles from my house there was 24-26 inches in the Level with 6-8' Drifts while about a mile south of Pennington gap just wsw of the Knob(ele., (3120 ft )on Wallens Ridge in the Valley just around 11" was observed ! That area is due wsw of High Knob and the highest peaks of Powell Mountain and Wallens Ridge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Wednesday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:25 PM CMC pay me now GFS pay me later 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:26 PM 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: CMC pay me now GFS pay me later The Canadian looks like it's paying double. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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