John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:55 PM If we pulled that one off and February was a torch, I'd not complain (much). 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:59 PM Crazily enough, there have been snows of that magnitude in Miss and Louisiana. They are rare but have happened. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM Now, we are cooking with gas. 12z Euro was a beaut. If we can get it to lock-in, that is a good thing. It nailed this last storm. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:10 PM 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: 12z GFS went back south. Mobile to Atlanta to Charlotte is where the precipitation axis is. It could be underestimating the precipitation shield on the NW side but obviously we are not there yet to worry about. However I’m good with that run. It keeps us in play. Right where we want it on the GFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:12 PM Looks like the 12z GEPS and GEFS have an overrunning event to our SE, but there is a shadow of the storm along the Apps. Amped solutions would get washed out at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM Ensembles have lots of members south of the TN border and into the Carolinas. Probably where we want it at this range, but ensemble support for a low road system is there. I suspect it trends north, but that gives me pause. Let's see if the Euro holds that 12z line for a few runs. I don't think there is a big block to keep it south...just the cold air press. I highly doubt that cold air is modeled correctly yet. Now, if by tomorrow evening we are still talking about suppressed ensembles... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM This might belong in a banter thread but I didn't see one except for summer banter unless I am overlooking it. Just read that NWS Morristown's chief meteorologist who's worked for Morristown for over 20 years is retiring. I'm wondering with that sort of experience with our complicated region departing how forecasts may be affected. I imagine some of the backtracking we've seen over the years where overnight would get aggressive then day time back peddle if that was the chief sort of moderating things based on his region knowledge and climatology. Thought it was interesting to share. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted Tuesday at 07:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:25 PM 18 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: This might belong in a banter thread but I didn't see one except for summer banter unless I am overlooking it. Just read that NWS Morristown's chief meteorologist who's worked for Morristown for over 20 years is retiring. I'm wondering with that sort of experience with our complicated region departing how forecasts may be affected. I imagine some of the backtracking we've seen over the years where overnight would get aggressive then day time back peddle if that was the chief sort of moderating things based on his region knowledge and climatology. Thought it was interesting to share. I have thought the exact same thing at times about the "Young night shift". Could be. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Tuesday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:17 PM Is that a tropical system coming into Florida at the end of the 18z run of the GFS? That is crazy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:31 PM 4 hours ago, ShawnEastTN said: This might belong in a banter thread but I didn't see one except for summer banter unless I am overlooking it. Just read that NWS Morristown's chief meteorologist who's worked for Morristown for over 20 years is retiring. I'm wondering with that sort of experience with our complicated region departing how forecasts may be affected. I imagine some of the backtracking we've seen over the years where overnight would get aggressive then day time back peddle if that was the chief sort of moderating things based on his region knowledge and climatology. Thought it was interesting to share. He's a great Met and great person. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Wednesday at 12:04 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:04 AM lol… apparently Ken Weathers from WATE had a thing or two to say about “so called social media meteorologist”. I didn’t see it but had a few people text me about it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Wednesday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:01 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Wednesday at 02:03 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:03 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 02:16 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:16 AM Euro AI keeps moving NW with its precip shield. Basically 2-4 inches for East Tennessee at 18z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 02:22 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:22 AM Bouncycorn, the met from Southern weather has the model blender that he can run each one through for a snow map. This is his 18z AI map with what he feels would be the proper ratios based in sounding. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted Wednesday at 03:01 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:01 AM I thought the regular (non AI Euro) at 18z also looked pretty good for Sunday here in E TN as well. Pops a Lee side low after the main front goes through and has a nice mini system. The GFS has it too, and it’s not much, but it’s something and it’s only 5 days out now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Wednesday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:13 AM Model trends encouraged me today. Per my last post, I'm much more interested in midweek than Sunday. Southeast Tennessee needs a new system, not one chasing the Saturday rain. Ensemble members and some ops and AI runs are delivering a midweek system. Others keep it buried in the Deep South. Again I'd much rather be concerned about moisture getting north, rather than warm noses and cutters. That's all for today. Long day at the office, but I was watching trends. I'll sleep happy tonight. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:43 AM The ICON was pretty good across the whole area almost with the Sunday system. As Jeff noted, Chattanooga not so much, but every where else it would be a nice event. We often see snow come with this level or arctic airmass. My high was modeled at 16 on Monday at 12z on some modeling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 03:44 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:44 AM School hasn't been in session here since before Christmas and I honestly see no way for melting to occur before Friday during the day really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 03:47 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:47 AM ICON for the Sunday system. It's suppressed still mid-week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 04:20 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:20 AM GFS is much more north/amped this run. Gonna see if it's enough soon. 1048 hp in southern Missouri pressing on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 04:24 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:24 AM Gonna be better than 18z was but not quite gonna make it here I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 04:28 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:28 AM The GFS gets a 1060 down to Northern Colorado that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 04:33 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:33 AM The Canadian is similar to the ICON with the weekend system. GFS wants nothing to do with it really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 04:33 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:33 AM The GFS just got strung out like the storm that just passed. Dumped all over Texas and then just fizzled as it moved East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Wednesday at 04:36 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:36 AM Canadian...all gonna say is Kuchera lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 04:41 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:41 AM It's gangbusters. It took the GFS to school with the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 04:50 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:50 AM Insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Wednesday at 04:58 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:58 AM Ukie has the storm/overriding...just a little farther south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 04:59 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:59 AM Very interested in the Euro now. That UKIE run isn't bad at this lead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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