John1122 Posted Monday at 09:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:17 PM I'm actually surprised the front is going to pass completely dry. Usually these 25+ degree drops squeeze out some snow. It's 40 here now and I'm supposed to get down to 12 tonight. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Monday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:14 PM 18z GFS close to popping something good for Eastern areas 1/19-20 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted Monday at 10:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:21 PM 1 hour ago, John1122 said: I'm actually surprised the front is going to pass completely dry. Usually these 25+ degree drops squeeze out some snow. It's 40 here now and I'm supposed to get down to 12 tonight. Was 50° yesterday here, 39° today, 18° tonight. Tomorrow is showing a 47° day, 17° night. Big swings. Heating system ~loooooves~ it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted Monday at 10:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:22 PM Not that it will verify exactly as is - but my forecast is for 60° on Friday. Wild. And then that cold front comes through and then Sunday has a low of 14° and Monday a high of 22°. My arthritis is begging for quick death. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:41 PM 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Several would be before Tri record keeping became an official thing. It could be a top 5 winter during it's record keeping era, which begain in, I believe, 1948. Missing data! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:43 PM 27 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 18z GFS close to popping something good for Eastern areas 1/19-20 It (and other modeling) has kind of a funky evolution during that time frame. I "think what it is trying to do is to build and anafront with a wave on it. Makes total sense...not quite there yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Monday at 10:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:48 PM 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Missing data! Using the Knoxville station to extrapolate, Tri would have been brutally cold several years in the 1880s-1920ish. Also in the early 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:50 PM Just now, John1122 said: Using the Knoxville station to extrapolate, Tri would have been brutally cold several years in the 1880s-1920ish. Also in the early 40s. Likely! The early 40s would teleconnect well to the brutal cold of WW2 in Europe, ie Battle of the Bulge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:50 PM 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Using the Knoxville station to extrapolate, Tri would have been brutally cold several years in the 1880s-1920ish. Also in the early 40s. Kingsport might have some uncorrupted data(hand written and archived online) from that time as it was easily the biggest of the Tri-Cities at the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Monday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:49 PM 57 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Likely! The early 40s would teleconnect well to the brutal cold of WW2 in Europe, ie Battle of the Bulge. I actually found some Tri data from January 1940. It's -10 but with some missing data temps. Knoxville was 24 and 5 and 15 and -1 on the missing data days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 12:10 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:10 AM 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Where can I find TRI's top coldest Januarys or is it something I just need to hand crunch? January 1985 was -8.8F. 77 was -14.3. 82 was -5.3. 94 was -5.2. 10 was -5.3. I am in a rush, so those are the ones I can think of for Januarys in my lifetime which are cold. That "could" put this January in the top 3 for the past 50 years. I'd have to go back and look pre 70. Double digit departures for January I wouldn't think would be that common, but maybe they are? The other thing.....current departures might not be the same as departures from several years ago. With the new norms...it is easier to go well below normal IMHO. Back then, it took some work. I don't think this will approach a top snow month at all...just looking at temp departures...sorry, I should hav specified that. '77-78 along with '39-40 and '69-70 should be in your top 5 with '76-77 number 1 in the past 100 years. '62-63 . '57-58 and '59-60 probably top 10 with one of those maybe rounding out the top 5 bunch. All just off top of my head as lost my Records Years back in a moving process unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 12:23 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:23 AM Maybe one of these days we can do a WW2 weather thread. Might be a good summer mental exercise. Korea also had some ridiculously cold winters. Might even be a good veteran's day thread. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortexse93 Posted Tuesday at 01:56 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:56 AM Looking into the long range and appears the cold streak maybe even an outbreak over the Deep South around the 20th to the 30th of Jan. This is obviously reflected within the latest CPC 6 to 10 Day and 8 to 14 Day temperature outlook. With that being said, there are some questions on whether or not that moisture will be present across the Deep South for another winter storm. Long range models have been struggling very mighty when it comes to showing any moisture present over the Deep South in the coming weeks. This very apparent when looking at the PWAT values across the region with the GFS and EURO model guidance. However, that has not stopped the models from showing some sign of wintry precip to occur pending model run with both the GFS and EURO data over the last couple of days. As for their ensemble counterparts, they are trending towards the drier side as both GFS and EURO ensembles are showing below average precip for Day 8 to Day 14. While the CPC does suspect for precip to near or below average for Day 6 to Day 10, the below average precip does does slightly overlap into Day 8 to Day 14 temperature outlook. This will be interesting to watch and see how this plays out in the next several days. Given what I see personally, there is high uncertainty for winter storm to progress across the Deep South as of now. Granted this is roughly week or so away so things can and will likely change. However, it is something to watch for over the next several days to see how the models play out. In no way I am saying that there will be or will not be a winter storm. I am just saying that there is high uncertainty given the model guidance and data trends at the moment. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 04:36 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:36 AM GFS came NW significantly and crushed the Carolinas that run. Almost back to that wild Euro run a few days ago. Something building in Texas behind it. GFS so the usual warnings apply. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 06:25 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:25 AM The Euro, as usual at this range, is completely unimpressed and back to it's dry as the desert look. The Euro cold snap is shorter too, but potent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 11:41 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:41 AM The 6z GFS is not a bad run. The concern is that it is still trending north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Tuesday at 11:58 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:58 AM 15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 6z GFS is not a bad run. The concern is that it is still trending north. It looks similar to the last system to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Tuesday at 12:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:41 PM 41 minutes ago, matt9697 said: It looks similar to the last system to me The GDPS has been fairly consistent with a storm signal on the first of next week, but it, too, is gradually shifting northwest 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:24 PM 3 hours ago, matt9697 said: It looks similar to the last system to me It could end up in Indiana before the trend is over. I think probably suppression is our greatest enemy for this one, but seeing a system jog from Jacksonville to Columbia(SC) to Knoxville. Those are BIG moves in three consecutive runs. If there is no block, it could easily cut. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:28 PM All of the ensembles are picking up this system. Might take 4-5 model suites, but somebody in the SE is probably not done with winter just yet. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:39 PM 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: It could end up in Indiana before the trend is over. I think probably suppression is our greatest enemy for this one, but seeing a system jog from Jacksonville to Columbia(SC) to Knoxville. Those are BIG moves in three consecutive runs. If there is no block, it could easily cut. 12z GFS went back south. Mobile to Atlanta to Charlotte is where the precipitation axis is. It could be underestimating the precipitation shield on the NW side but obviously we are not there yet to worry about. However I’m good with that run. It keeps us in play. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted Tuesday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:15 PM Sneaky system this weekend could be a surprise. Threat for next week looks icy for someone that's for sure. I think the ice threat is very very high with this setup with such a strong CAD push. The GEFS has a lot of really flat NW precip shields. Thin snow streak at the extreme northern edge but a huge ice shield. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM The Euro is trying to start the Saturday system with some frozen precip in the VA border areas and in SWVa. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:46 PM The Euro is going to be close to what the GFS showed. I think the HP is too strong on all models currently, 1050 shows up often but rarely verifies over Missouri. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:47 PM Euro is a big hitter. Still don't believe the 1050 but it bananas and keeps the cut from happening. 1043 in the NE, 1050 over Missouri. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:47 PM That was a pretty good miller A on the Euro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:49 PM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM Temps are 16 to 22ish when at the height of the snow here on the Euro. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM Euro was tasty. 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Euro is going to be close to what the GFS showed. I think the HP is too strong on all models currently, 1050 shows up often but rarely verifies over Missouri. I was thinking the same thing. No way that HP verifies. That has to be good of us though, seeing how the GFS has the storm to our south and east. Just hope it doesn't weaken too much and trend too far north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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