Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[jaxjagman]

I cant ever recall a ice storm in North Fl..lol

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I cant ever recall a ice storm in North Fl..lol

Yeah, that has been overdone all winter.  I am not sure why modeling has been so extreme with the extent of the souther edge of cold at range.  But across the board it has done that, and been badly wrong.  But agree, that would be an extreme event.

[Carvers Gap]

The good thing is that came back well north.  We probably want our storms that far south with the northern trend being legit this winter on modeling.  

[jaxjagman]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, that has been overdone all winter.  I am not sure why modeling has been so extreme with the extent of the souther edge of cold at range.  But across the board it has done that, and been badly wrong.  But agree, that would be an extreme event.

Guess its possible but would be really,really rare

[jaxjagman]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The good thing is that came back well north.  We probably want our storms that far south with the northern trend being legit this winter on modeling.  

Right,i was thinking the same thing myself

[Greyhound]

Jan 24’ was pretty incredible. Snowed for about 28ish hours, however the last 10 hours is where it left its mark. Seems like 2014 (if I’m remembering correctly) we had a similar situation but it ended up a big mess. 5” of snow turned to several inches of sleet, then a little FRz before we went back to snow. However it seems like there was two big storms several days apart with an inverted trough across the foothills that brought around 5” of snow in the valley. We had lows below zero for several nights. Didn’t break freezing for a week. School was out for two weeks. One of my schools had a sprinkler freeze and bust. We found it because the motion sensor caught the water rolling down the hall and it set the security alarm off. lol… I was there for 20 hours working. Good times 

February 2015


.

[jaxjagman]

Didnt even know Florida could get so cold

,even though it was back into the 1800's

Although many people head south to escape the cold in the winter, it isn't always warmer in Florida. When an intense low pressure system is followed by a strong high pressure system, particularly powerful invasions of cold air may occur in Florida. These cold air outbreaks can produce below-freezing temperatures and are usually accompanied by strong winds that can produce bitterly cold wind chills.

Over the past 150 years, numerous severe cold outbreaks have affected Florida. In February 1899, a cold wave that became known as the Great Arctic Outbreak pushed frigid Canadian arctic air into the state. During this event, the lowest temperature ever recorded in Florida (-2°F) occurred on February 13, 1899. Since this outbreak, a number of "impact freezes" have influenced the retreat of the famous Florida orange groves from areas around Jacksonville and St. Augustine to their current locations in south Florida. 

[John1122]

8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Didnt even know Florida could get so cold

,even though it was back into the 1800's

Although many people head south to escape the cold in the winter, it isn't always warmer in Florida. When an intense low pressure system is followed by a strong high pressure system, particularly powerful invasions of cold air may occur in Florida. These cold air outbreaks can produce below-freezing temperatures and are usually accompanied by strong winds that can produce bitterly cold wind chills.

Over the past 150 years, numerous severe cold outbreaks have affected Florida. In February 1899, a cold wave that became known as the Great Arctic Outbreak pushed frigid Canadian arctic air into the state. During this event, the lowest temperature ever recorded in Florida (-2°F) occurred on February 13, 1899. Since this outbreak, a number of "impact freezes" have influenced the retreat of the famous Florida orange groves from areas around Jacksonville and St. Augustine to their current locations in south Florida. 

Memphis was the warmest spot in the state during that time frame with a high of 8 and low of -9. All the other stations I can find a report from were in the -10s. Nashville was the coldest of the big cities at -13. 

[jaxjagman]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Memphis was the warmest spot in the state during that time frame with a high of 8 and low of -9. All the other stations I can find a report from were in the -10s. Nashville was the coldest of the big cities at -13. 

Thats still insane.I lived in Jacksonville for around 25 years.Like that article i posted from the from the Climate center in Florida ill post think link it does get cold i know,but ice i never seen ice until i moved here.With a Nor-easter in some winters when those winds cross the STJohns River,oh that shit is brutal..lol

 

https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/winters

[John1122]

Canadian hold the front up again and we have mid-state snow, eastern ice/sleet and by 240, -5 to -10 degree lows. 

The GFS blows the front through and it's much weaker. 20 degrees warmer than the Canadian. It pops a storm over Cuba and runs it across Miami with a lesser than the Euro winter storm for Northern Florida. 

We need a happy middle of those two.

If I had to bet my life, it pick the Canadian, as we see hung up fronts along the apps like that often.  We don't see the old Cuba to Miami winter storms very often. Especially not snow and zr producers over Florida. 

[jaxjagman]

Still think the JMA is right with the MJO,but i also think the Euro is also right ,just not as amped.If the CFS is anywhere right it does show a strong MJO into Africa and into the IO,but in a NINA base state the signal will get  destructive interefrnce into the IO from waves that should totally disrupt the MJO signal when its actually moving forward

Maybe i might be wrong but if teleconnections work out i really think our coldest temps of the season could be towards the end of the month..jmho

[jaxjagman]

Its pretty wild how we continue to see these troughs in East Asia.At first i thought it was because the warm SST'S but then i remembered some of these SST'S this year are breaking records from last year,but we didnt see anything like this pattern last winter,possibly the ENSO,seems possible,we did have a strong NINO

[nrgjeff]

November snow in Florida! per a few posts up. Guess anything can happen in this business. 

Quick look at the medium range models and most bury any waves. I'd much rather see that than cutters. Perhaps one will develop in our sweet spot. A couple AI versions have just that. Right after the Saturday rain, but separated enough to develop, second wave Sun/Mon.

[Carvers Gap]

Good little window early to late next week. 
 

Things that have not verified this winter:

1.  Snowstorms in Florida and extreme levels of suppressed flow

2.  High numbers of clippers.

 

For now(stress now), the pattern is a warm up and rain pattern.  Next week is cold and dry looking.  Like Jeff, let’s keep those waves south and let them work back.  The CMC is pretty adamant with overturning.  Other modeling kinda got there last night with a late developing wave which skimmed E TN.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS agains looks far too suppressed.  The 12z CMC looks about right.  Both give systems a chance to come back north which they likely will.  It has snowed in Charleston, SC, back during the early 90s.  However, none of those setups have verified this winter.  Remember the Key West snow showers?  Didn't happen.  Remember the central Florida snows on modeling? Didn't happen.  Cold has been continually over modeled this winter.  Could it happen? Sure, once in a blue moon.  However, climatology supports those systems being further north.  Up to this point there is zero ensemble support for those ultra suppressed runs(at leas in regards to snow in the orange groves).  For now, we will have to rely on ensembles as the GFS has just been off its rocker of late.

[John1122]

The ICON was in the Canadian camp basically, a nice snow event developing over the forum area in some very cold air.

[nrgjeff]

Even that 12Z GFS verbatim, buried in the Deep South, more snow than progged would get up and over us. 

Northern stream, maybe instead of warm nosing us, could do something productive (for once) in that setup. 

[PowellVolz]

Ryan Hall with an interesting video today. He said between now and February 1st he believes the area circled on this screenshot I’m posting hasn’t seen half the snow to this point that he believes is coming in the next two weeks. He even threw out the “B” word that ends with a “D” as a real possibility in this circled area. I was shocked to say the least that he would go there. lol…

 

[PowellVolz]

He also said in his opinion that February is looking like a potential trough out west and a strong SER setting the stage for severe weather to start early this spring. 

[nrgjeff]

Strange. Hall is never bullish about anything. 

Chattanooga probably has reached our half-way point even if the good models verify. Other parts of the forum may be just gettin' started. We'll see. 

[Bigbald]

I wish I could bet money on the cmc sniffing this out.  It's crazy to think we are basically 5 days out from this event.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

23 hours ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Peachtree City is already mentioning 10 days down the road. The wording seems that they are mentioning it because everyone is already sharing huge storm totals on social media.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
307 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025




I feel like I`m having to do this too much for a meteorologist in Georgia, but let`s once again take a moment to discuss the potential for some winter weather middle of next week. Yet again, we are seeing a few of the operational models occasionally spit out a significant winter event for our area, giving some eye popping 10:1 snow maps ripe for slapping up on social media. With signs that we will have yet another significant Arctic front move through the area by the end of the week into early next week, we will certainly be in a set-up that *could*, once again, bring winter weather into the CWA. Cold air will be well into the Gulf, establishing a baroclinic zone along the coast, and there are signs of a shortwave that may be able to tap into that for surface low formation and have a decent connection to the subtropics to pull in some moisture. However, so far, of the 2-3 potential winter setups like this we`ve seen the models spit out this winter season, 1 has panned out. Getting all the ingredients in line at the right time in the right way is always tough here. To emphasize this, looking at ensemble model probabilities across the 12Z guidance for getting >1" of snow, the GEFS shows around 5%, the European ensemble around 10-15%, and the Canadian about 5% only in northern GA. Could it happen? Absolutely. These probabilities are certainly much higher than the typically probability of snow on a given day in the winter in Georgia (
Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk




 

Whoever this forecaster is, I enjoy their writing/explanation style. This was perfect for folks who have little weather knowledge and folks who have a lot of weather knowledge lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS and GEPS snow mean is going back up.  That is usually a signal those models are on the hunt.  The 12z EPS(an ensemble!) has the lows next week at or below zero over portions of TRI.  I would suspect something is going to occur with that front - anafront, slider, miller.  That is a big time front, and "should" have something react to it.

[Carvers Gap]

Give me some numbers.  What are the records for January temps in terms of departures from normal for the month?  What is it going to take to get into the top 5?  TRI is at -8.4F for the month.  There are 17 days left.   I would guess at least 4-5 of those are going to be substantially cold.  If we can shrug off some warmth during the last 2-3 days of the month, we may make a run at a really decently cold month.

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Give me some numbers.  What are the records for January temps in terms of departures from normal for the month?  What is it going to take to get into the top 5?  TRI is at -8.4F for the month.  There are 17 days left.   I would guess at least 4-5 of those are going to be substantially cold.  If we can shrug off some warmth during the last 2-3 days of the month, we may make a run at a really decently cold month.

There are a good number double digit below normal January's and all of them featured more snow than this one has so far, as well as multiple shots of cold spaced out over the month. This one may be headed that way.

[ncjoaquin]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Give me some numbers.  What are the records for January temps in terms of departures from normal for the month?  What is it going to take to get into the top 5?  TRI is at -8.4F for the month.  There are 17 days left.   I would guess at least 4-5 of those are going to be substantially cold.  If we can shrug off some warmth during the last 2-3 days of the month, we may make a run at a really decently cold month.

The mother of cold for January in Asheville was in 77 averaging 24.8, almost 13 degrees below normal. 

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

There are a good number double digit below normal January's and all of them featured more snow than this one has so far, as well as multiple shots of cold spaced out over the month. This one may be headed that way.

Where can I find TRI's top coldest Januarys or is it something I just need to hand crunch?  January 1985 was -8.8F.  77 was -14.3.  82 was -5.3.  94 was -5.2. 10 was -5.3.  I am in a rush, so those are the ones I can think of for Januarys in my lifetime which are cold.  That "could" put this January in the top 3 for the past 50 years.  I'd have to go back and look pre 70.  Double digit departures for January I wouldn't think would be that common, but maybe they are?  The other thing.....current departures might not be the same as departures from several years ago.  With the new norms...it is easier to go well below normal IMHO.  Back then, it took some work.  

I don't think this will approach a top snow month at all...just looking at temp departures...sorry, I should hav specified that.

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

The mother of cold for January in Asheville was in 77 averaging 24.8, almost 13 degrees below normal. 

That is amazing.  I lived in Knoxville at the time as a kid during that time.  My definition of a cold winter will forever be skewed!  LOL

[nrgjeff]

12Z Canadian shows ice! What is that Trudeau's retaliation? 

GFS and Euro I see Sunday as the first chance of winter precip. Perhaps late Saturday night northwest so that's still Day 7 as of this writing. 

I like the Peachtree discussion. At the same time the ensemble snow means are increasing per Carvers above. 

Personally I'm hoping for something the middle of next week to show up in the flow. Sunday is way too soon after the rain system for KCHA. We'll be fighting subsidence behind the first system; plus, anafrontal is DOA for Chatty snow.

[John1122]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Where can I find TRI's top coldest Januarys or is it something I just need to hand crunch?  January 1985 was -8.8F.  77 was -14.3.  82 was -5.3.  94 was -5.2. 10 was -5.3.  I am in a rush, so those are the ones I can think of for Januarys in my lifetime which are cold.  That "could" put this January in the top 3 for the past 50 years.  I'd have to go back and look pre 70.  Double digit departures for January I wouldn't think would be that common, but maybe they are?  The other thing.....current departures might not be the same as departures from several years ago.  With the new norms...it is easier to go well below normal IMHO.  Back then, it took some work.  

I don't think this will approach a top snow month at all...just looking at temp departures...sorry, I should hav specified that.

Several would be before Tri record keeping became an official thing. It could be a top 5 winter during it's record keeping era, which begain in, I believe, 1948.