Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

We are going to need a little bit of a SER in conjunction with a strong EPO.  Basically, we need the eastern trough to begin retrograding a bit and pump the SER as it retreats west.  It is a little bit of thread the needle, but that has been the scenario for this particular window for some time.

[jaxjagman]

23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We are going to need a little bit of a SER in conjunction with a strong EPO.  Basically, we need the eastern trough to begin retrograding a bit and pump the SER as it retreats west.  It is a little bit of thread the needle, but that has been the scenario for this particular window for some time.

Yeah thats brutal seeing a 1058hp nosing into Oklahoma the Euro is showing,could be the coldest temps we've seen all season

[Carvers Gap]

TRI is -8.0F for the month.  We have had five straight days below freezing(all day).   Modeling ended up being pretty decent.  If we can sneak through the last 4-5 days of the month without a huge warmup, we could end up with some impressive numbers for January.

[Carvers Gap]

Re TRI: The avergage high is roughly 46F.  It has been 35F so for the month.  

[John1122]

Lots of winter storms flying around. Hopefully we cash in another time or two before the end of the month. The Canadian has a better pass than the ice storm look it had been giving.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

That was definitely a run of the Euro for the 20 - 22 lol. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

 

 

 

[John1122]

As long as it doesn't trend into a cutter! Pretty good spot to be in right now with the inevitable NW trend.

This also may be a record year for modeling showing major, record breaking winter storms deep into Florida. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, John1122 said:

As long as it doesn't trend into a cutter! Pretty good spot to be in right now with the inevitable NW trend.

This also may be a record year for modeling showing major, record breaking winter storms deep into Florida. 

Yeah I was about to add to my above post we might want it 300 miles further SE at this stage. 

[John1122]

The models are coming back towards a very blocked Pac, the Euro reaches into Siberia and throws that air at us. 

[Carvers Gap]

Dear 12z Euro,

That was a proper model run.

Yours truly,

Carvers Gap

[Carvers Gap]

A very cold air mass and a very active STJ on both the CMC and Euro - I feel like I have said that before?  The details aren't worked out right now, but that is about as good a look as one can get for a winter storm in the south.  That has been a very consistent look.  Details TBD, but might make for some fun model watching for the next few days.  

[Matthew70]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Dear 12z Euro,

That was a proper model run.

Yours truly,

Carvers Gap

Dear Euro,

 

Extra credit would be to come NW about 100-125 miles.  

[Uncle Nasty]

Peachtree City is already mentioning 10 days down the road. The wording seems that they are mentioning it because everyone is already sharing huge storm totals on social media.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
307 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025




I feel like I`m having to do this too much for a meteorologist in Georgia, but let`s once again take a moment to discuss the potential for some winter weather middle of next week. Yet again, we are seeing a few of the operational models occasionally spit out a significant winter event for our area, giving some eye popping 10:1 snow maps ripe for slapping up on social media. With signs that we will have yet another significant Arctic front move through the area by the end of the week into early next week, we will certainly be in a set-up that *could*, once again, bring winter weather into the CWA. Cold air will be well into the Gulf, establishing a baroclinic zone along the coast, and there are signs of a shortwave that may be able to tap into that for surface low formation and have a decent connection to the subtropics to pull in some moisture. However, so far, of the 2-3 potential winter setups like this we`ve seen the models spit out this winter season, 1 has panned out. Getting all the ingredients in line at the right time in the right way is always tough here. To emphasize this, looking at ensemble model probabilities across the 12Z guidance for getting >1" of snow, the GEFS shows around 5%, the European ensemble around 10-15%, and the Canadian about 5% only in northern GA. Could it happen? Absolutely. These probabilities are certainly much higher than the typically probability of snow on a given day in the winter in Georgia (
Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[jaxjagman]

Mean has really jumped on board today seemingly

[nrgjeff]

Maybe we can get some severe weather going on Saturday. OK I'll be good!

Oh the EC for Tuesday Jan. 21 is lovely. Full thickness is 522 low lower. You wouldn't think we'd get a warm nose, lol! Partial thickness lines are buried in the Deep South - where they belong. 700 mb is a proper -10 to -15. That's Day 10 counting Sunday as Day 1. Long way to go. Broad theme is waves will continue on a buried southern jet vs all NW flow.

[jaxjagman]

The pattern as of late has been acting like a decent Nino other than a Nina,so its not very coupled.The SOI the last couple days is hovering around -20,the SOI seemingly should start to reverse shortly

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Mean has really jumped on board today seemingly

Yeah, coincides with the warmup end of Month into FEB. Goes into very low amp 4 before COD. May leave a Ph.3 reflection on the Pattern. Will need to monitor other Drivers regarding the end Outcome late Jan/early February.

[PowellVolz]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

Dear Euro,

 

Extra credit would be to come NW about 100-125 miles.  

Leave it there until the 11th hour 

[PowellVolz]

 

 

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

35 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Maybe we can get some severe weather going on Saturday. OK I'll be good!

Oh the EC for Tuesday Jan. 21 is lovely. Full thickness is 522 low lower. You wouldn't think we'd get a warm nose, lol! Partial thickness lines are buried in the Deep South - where they belong. 700 mb is a proper -10 to -15. That's Day 10 counting Sunday as Day 1. Long way to go. Broad theme is waves will continue on a buried southern jet vs all NW flow.

We  get excited with the GWO into those phases for severe if its right..lol

[jaxjagman]

37 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, coincides with the warmup end of Month into FEB. Goes into very low amp 4 before COD. May leave a Ph.3 reflection on the Pattern. Will need to monitor other Drivers regarding the end Outcome late Jan/early February.

Yeah the MJO into 3 alot of people always say thats gloom and doom but actually its not

[matt9697]

Just looking at the general pattern, I would be surprised if we made it through the end of the season, mid March for me, without at least one more winter storm system. Could be snow, could be ice feel like we are just in that type of pattern - less weather knowledge than most here - just a gut feeling 

[ShawnEastTN]

 

 

 
 

Gotta admit this is my favorite type of winter storm. I know it's not forum wide but these are the good long duration snows that really pile up the snow in Eastern areas of the forum when we get them, they often over produce with waves working through that are not always seen until go time and a little backing of the flow occasionally. Would love to get one of these this year. Their NW precip shield also goes well beyond what is modeled 99% of the time.

[*Flash*]

2 hours ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Gotta admit this is my favorite type of winter storm. I know it's not forum wide but these are the good long duration snows that really pile up the snow in Eastern areas of the forum when we get them, they often over produce with waves working through that are not always seen until go time and a little backing of the flow occasionally. Would love to get one of these this year. Their NW precip shield also goes well beyond what is modeled 99% of the time.
 

Yeah, we're going to need a NW trend with that one. A 100-150 mile jaunt should suffice 

[PowellVolz]

2 hours ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Gotta admit this is my favorite type of winter storm. I know it's not forum wide but these are the good long duration snows that really pile up the snow in Eastern areas of the forum when we get them, they often over produce with waves working through that are not always seen until go time and a little backing of the flow occasionally. Would love to get one of these this year. Their NW precip shield also goes well beyond what is modeled 99% of the time.
 

Jan 24’ was pretty incredible. Snowed for about 28ish hours, however the last 10 hours is where it left its mark. Seems like 2014 (if I’m remembering correctly) we had a similar situation but it ended up a big mess. 5” of snow turned to several inches of sleet, then a little FRz before we went back to snow. However it seems like there was two big storms several days apart with an inverted trough across the foothills that brought around 5” of snow in the valley. We had lows below zero for several nights. Didn’t break freezing for a week. School was out for two weeks. One of my schools had a sprinkler freeze and bust. We found it because the motion sensor caught the water rolling down the hall and it set the security alarm off. lol… I was there for 20 hours working. Good times 

[midwoodian]

Mean has really jumped on board today seemingly

Can someone explain this chart to me? I can’t for the life of me figure out what it’s showing and what the quadrants mean. Tia!


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[John1122]

Griteater looked for similar 500mb patterns to the one advertised next week, and the closest he found was February 7-9th 1967. 

There was likely a stalled boundary in the area, that was laid out nearly west to east rather than the usual sharper SW to NE direction, as it was much colder along the Northern Plateau and SE Kentucky vs other areas. The Northern Plateau and SE Kentucky got 6 to 8 inches of snow on the 7th. Along 40 and into NE Tennessee got 3-5 inches and southern areas around Chattanooga got 2 inches. 

Here, Middlesboro, Tazewell, Oneida, and Corbin were well below 0 on the 8th and 9th. The areas along 40 and 81 were in the upper teens to near 20. 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, midwoodian said:

Can someone explain this chart to me? I can’t for the life of me figure out what it’s showing and what the quadrants mean. Tia!


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MJO.  CPC has a great site about it.  Draw a line down the middle. Generally it rotates counterclockwise.  For cold weather, we don't want to be on the right.  4-6 are huge warm signals, but sometimes can get an oddball snowstorm in one of those.  3 we can tolerate.  8-1-2 are best. 7 is transition.  Which numbers are good changes with each month. In general, we don't want stalled convection over Indonesia(Maritime continent - MC) or the eastern Indian Ocean(IO) - that is the shorty story.  That teleconnects to a southeast ridge(SER) here.  The black line is the predicted plot.  Red dots are where we are now.  Think of it as looking at what is upstream from us in the atmosphere.  At some point in Feb, we are likely headed to 4-6.  

It takes a while to learn about.  That said, if you simply look at a satellite map of the aforementioned areas, you can see it or you can see that convection is about to move into those areas.  If you learn to read the plot and satellite maps, you can often predict weather up to 20-30 days in advance for our back yard.  Very reliable, but not foolproof.

[John1122]

6 minutes ago, midwoodian said:

Can someone explain this chart to me? I can’t for the life of me figure out what it’s showing and what the quadrants mean. Tia!


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These are the MJO plots from the Euro. It is where convection is located. In winter we want to see it on the left side to maybe 3. We want it out of 4, 5 or 6 especially.