Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[beavis1729]

Way out there, of course...and it's only one Op run...but the 0z Euro brings down the motherload 

Nice temperature contrast too.

 

[John1122]

Nice hit this time on the GFS. Anafrontal system with most of the moisture behind it. We've scored a few times that way lately. It was a staple in the 70s/80s. Doesn't work for Chattanooga, but most from the mid-state East pick up 3-6 inches that run. It's been moving forward in time. Also, as noted, the Euro is frigid late run, we'll see if that changes. Last night D15 was highs in the 10s and lows near or just below 0.

[John1122]

Man, that Euro run was banging the drum again. It's what this pattern was initially advertised as. Below 0 cold, a snow event, then suppression with snow in Savannah and Jacksonville. 

[Carvers Gap]

Are we ready to talk about this?  Too soon?

 

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Are we ready to talk about this?  Too soon?

 

That's Pacific domination. That's why Savannah is in the snow bullseye. 

I saw the other day that the PDO was finally indicating a possible flip. That may usher in an entirely new winter experience for many people under 30. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That's Pacific domination. That's why Savannah is in the snow bullseye. 

I saw the other day that the PDO was finally indicating a possible flip. That may usher in an entirely new winter experience for many people under 30. 

It is the he one feature which can overpower a bad MJO.

[Carvers Gap]

@Daniel Boone1982 was mentioned by JB today.  It looks like the temps alignment later in the month.  The CPC d8-14 analogs have it.  @John1122how was that winter?

They can get that 1990 analog off of there!

19990105
19850129
19800124
20090123
19630110
20080118
19910122
19620109
19820110
19820204

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Daniel Boone1982 was mentioned by JB today.  It looks like the temps alignment later in the month.  The CPC d8-14 analogs have it.  @John1122how was that winter?

They can get that 1990 analog off of there!

19990105
19850129
19800124
20090123
19630110
20080118
19910122
19620109
19820110
19820204

I was just thinking earlier today that this January is reminding me of the early 80's one's.

4 rather duds in that list ; 2008, 2009, 1991 and 1999. The other's were all good. All four of the duds were Nina's. I wonder if that was factored into the Equation. ?.

 

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Daniel Boone1982 was mentioned by JB today.  It looks like the temps alignment later in the month.  The CPC d8-14 analogs have it.  @John1122how was that winter?

They can get that 1990 analog off of there!

19990105
19850129
19800124
20090123
19630110
20080118
19910122
19620109
19820110
19820204

That date in January of 1982 kicked off a week of cold, snowy weather, that finally was capped off by the massive ice storm of 1982. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

That date in January of 1982 kicked off a week of cold, snowy weather, that finally was capped off by the massive ice storm of 1982. 

Several Arctic fronts went through that Month as well. Also some Valley wide Snow storms( 4-6 inchers)

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Several Arctic fronts went through that Month as well. Also some Valley wide Snow storms( 4-6 inchers)

It was one of our most severe winters. I had a day with a below zero high and some negative teens for lows. 

[Daniel Boone]

Also, thinking back, wasn't that December similar to this one albeit a bit colder and snowier ?

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Also, thinking back, wasn't that December similar to this one albeit a bit colder and snowier ?

I was living with the Philistines that winter(Orlando).  I missed my only two Tennessee winters and two football seasons while living in that furnace.  I missed the World's Fair win over Bama and the 82 winter.  I gotta a lot of great memories from Disney and Epcot....but no Tenn football, no mountains, and no winter just didn't jive with me!  

That said, the 18z EURO AIFS stalls that frontal boundary at the Apps just after 240(edit).  It has an overrunning even modeled - lasts 48-72 hours.  

[John1122]

28 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Also, thinking back, wasn't that December similar to this one albeit a bit colder and snowier ?

December of 81 was a good bit colder and had a big snow just before Christmas. It was dry, about 60 percent of normal precip. 

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

December of 81 was a good bit colder and had a big snow just before Christmas. It was dry, about 60 percent of normal precip. 

Yeah, it was on the day before Christmas break started here. They had to turn school out early. We only got around 4 inches that day but, your area got more. There were some large Flakes I recall.

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, it was on the day before Christmas break started here. They had to turn school out early. We only got around 4 inches that day but, your area got more. There were some large Flakes I recall.

7 inches here, it was an epic front end thump that switched to rain and 33 degrees. 

[Carvers Gap]

Here you go, @matt9697.  I took a screenshot of the ensembles when they "hang up" or pause.  Looks like the 20th or 21st are a window for overruning.  If this look continues for several days, I would be surprised for their not to be some type of event like that.  Lots of cold and a little bit of SER.

 

[matt9697]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here you go, @matt9697.  I took a screenshot of the ensembles when they "hang up" or pause.  Looks like the 20th or 21st are a window for overruning.  If this look continues for several days, I would be surprised for their not to be some type of event like that.  Lots of cold and a little bit of SER.

 

Thank you @Carvers Gaptrying to gauge whether I need to order another rick or two of firewood, have two and a half but have had to have a fire almost every day this year, even when it is a little warmer, object being to prevent the unit from kicking on, as much as I like TVA and all, would prefer not to have a $400 electric bill! 

[jaxjagman]

Long range i still believe the Euro is wrong.Seems possible all its doing is seeing destructive interference from Rossby,Kelvin Waves

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z Euro AIFS is bitterly cold late in its run.  It has been really good at spotting cold air masses at range.  Looks like it also has plenty of chance for winter embedded.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here you go, @matt9697.  I took a screenshot of the ensembles when they "hang up" or pause.  Looks like the 20th or 21st are a window for overruning.  If this look continues for several days, I would be surprised for their not to be some type of event like that.  Lots of cold and a little bit of SER.

 

Almost entire lower 48 colder than average.  Looks MJO Ph 1 footprint alot. Of course, that could be just coincidence.