Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here is the surface:

 

and 500 mb

[tnweathernut]

It looks to keep its positive tilt at 500 as the trough sweeps through the SE.  With no real reinforcing cold high, that might be preferable for a light snow opportunity.  Anything that approaches neutral tilt around the MS river at 500 likely destroys thermals without a reinforcing high.  If we get that WSW flow and an overrunning light snow…… might be enough to get some of the forum on the board for snow.  Long way to go, but fingers crossed.

[*Flash*]

Yeah, as far as chasing goes, I'm 100% sitting this weekend out. Wayyy too messy of a setup. Siding with my gut though it sucks to whiff on a biggy. Fingers crossed, we'll have at least a 3"+ within a 3 hour drive situation with minimal icing by this time next week. Of course, this threshold makes more sense for my location compared to east TN. Thanks to Heather last year, I didn't have to travel to find appreciable snow depth. 

[John1122]

I will say this, heavy snow turning to rain or freezing rain, while a system is to our south or southeast isn't common imby. Cutters and a front end thump, yes. But not with sliders/Miller A systems. Falling snow helps keep the column cool and the flow of WAA isn't usually quite what it is with a cutter. 

[TellicoWx]

There's one thing on the GFS that we have all seen before and 9x out 10 turns into Lucy pulling the football....Great Lakes Low = ominous death signal for the southern valley.

[ShawnEastTN]

There's one thing on the GFS that we have all seen before and 9x out 10 turns into Lucy pulling the football....Great Lakes Low = ominous death signal for the southern valley.

Yep always a killer... So many years with mostly good patterns has had storms killed by a Great Lakes Low.

[ShawnEastTN]

MRX is really thinking through this situation. They've issued Winter Weather Advisories for most Great Valley counties that are near the eastern escarpment of the plateau and counties away from mountain downsloping. Good call!

[John1122]

Euro AI was a big hitter for the forum area it appeared. Looked like 4-6 inches north of 40, and 6 to 8 south of 40, especially in western areas. 

[John1122]

GFS is just crushing Memphis this run. 

[John1122]

Great run for the west side. Crap show for the east side. Apparently morphs into a cutter. 

[John1122]

Not gonna lie, if this ends up a cutter, I'm probably checking out for winter from model watching. 

[ShawnEastTN]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not gonna lie, if this ends up a cutter, I'm probably checking out for winter from model watching. 

I feel ya man!

[Nash_LSU]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not gonna lie, if this ends up a cutter, I'm probably checking out for winter from model watching. 

Dang, are we already cliff jumping? 

[Carvers Gap]

I have watched three model suites since posting about this storm.  Here are some observations…

1.  We must pay attention to the GFS northwest trend, but remember this Jan 6 system.  When it broke from modeling, it began cutting to Michigan.  Then, over time it made its way to Tallahassee.  It finally settled somewhere in the middle.  I suspect it(Jan 6) was too far southeast to begin with.  It has now corrected northwestward.  I suspect we see the Jan 10 system jog back some.  Its ensembles at 12z supported that.  I wonder with this Jan 6 system if the best solution would have been to blend the GFS deterministic and the GEFS with about a week to go?

2.  The GFS can score coups.  It can also miss like it did with the Ohio State game with about a week to go.  It under modeled the cold and speed of the cold front.  I saw fans with a week to go talking about how the forecast was in the 30s.  The GFS can miss.

3.  The low in the Lakes is a big problem.  I noticed it this morning.

4.  This phase is a bit too intricate for my liking. Every, single run at 500 is wildly different, 

5.  If we want a big storm, we have to live on the edge of the rain and snow line.  

6.  Gonna take time, looking at ensembles, and looking at trends on deterministic runs.  

7.  As this gets closer to the coast, it will dial in.  But until then, we have a few more suites of wild solutions.

[ShawnEastTN]

The 18z GFS as it is doesn't make a ton of sense to me, it's as though it transfers to an area of slightly lower pressure in the lower lakes region only to transfer back to the southeast right after.  I get why just seems to be a weird solution with the two transfers.  Also still think once storm 1 puts down it's snowpack we'll see things that make more sense.  We've seen though the years that most times storms tend to parallel snowpack and not generally plow across it, not 100% but frequently.

[tnweathernut]

Just one of the many ways we can lose in East TN, albeit one of the more painful ways….   To see a robust system paste west TN, lose punch and thermals into East TN, only to phase with the lakes low to bomb parts of the NE and MA is no bueno if it happens that way.  Especially knowing this is our best shot with the great pattern we were seeing at 500 breaking down much quicker than originally shown. 

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Just one of the many ways we can lose in East TN, albeit one of the more painful ways….   To see a robust system paste west TN, lose punch and thermals into East TN, only to phase with the lakes low to bomb parts of the NE and MA is no bueno of it happens that way.  Especially knowing this is our best shot with the great pattern we were seeing at 500 breaking down much quicker than originally shown. 

This may be it for winter. Once these patterns break down, historically. That's basically it for winter. February usually is well AN. 

[Carvers Gap]

My February analog package is well AN.  I don't see a lot of ways around that.  January was the wild card.  March can be crazy cold.  Again, the control runs of the Weeklies are not super enthusiastic about taking the cold from the East.  If anything, they have cold which stretches from Montana to the Apps.

[Carvers Gap]

Models are probably guilty of breaking down the pattern a bit too quickly in the longer range.  The 500 pattern will begin to reverse around the 20th with 5-10 days of variability after that.  The trough will likely move into the Mountain West.  Right now we are kind of stealing a decent month from a winter that maybe didn't support that at first glance.  But sometimes it snows where it wants to snow regardless of the pattern.  We have about 3 more weeks before we really and truly (probably) take a break.

[John1122]

The 18z Euro was slower than then 12z. Looked like West Tennessee was still fine, but not sure where it may have gone for the East areas. It sped up on the GFS and made the east in the day time. Likely would be overnight on the Euro. Granted, it's a transfer issue less than a temperature issue for the east. It just gives up the ghost on the gfs and there's no dynamic cooling, which means freezing rain and drizzle on the GFS. 

[Daniel Boone]

Getting an old fashioned solid Snow Storm for the great Valley is about like finding a Needle in a Haystack anymore. There was a Time when we would get them fairly regularly. I recall many where Snow would move up the Valley. Those were fun Time's. 

[John1122]

48 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Getting an old fashioned solid Snow Storm for the great Valley is about like finding a Needle in a Haystack anymore. There was a Time when we would get them fairly regularly. I recall many where Snow would move up the Valley. Those were fun Time's. 

It used to be, that when it snowed in North Texas, we would be cashing in soon after. Alberta Clippers gave 2-4 inches, and when Margie Ison said "Siberian express" we were going to get 2+ inches and temps below 0 were coming. 

All those things happened almost every single winter when I was young. 

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, John1122 said:

It used to be, that when it snowed in North Texas, we would be cashing in soon after. Alberta Clippers gave 2-4 inches, and when Margie Ison said "Siberian express" we were going to get 2+ inches and temps below 0 were coming. 

All those things happened almost every single winter when I was young. 

Exactly. I started to mention that I was sure you knew what I was talking about. I can remember the west to east One's as they'd report snow was already in west Tennessee and moving our way. The whole Forum would get a solid hit. No mixing issues.

[Uncle Nasty]

I know it's just a computer generated forecast, but TWC app has a chance of rain/snow all around the Chattanooga area next Friday with their standard "Watching a potential winter storm" to go along with their basic forecast. Same wording in Dalton. Ga. Knoxville, Dunlap, Tn., etc. Let's see where this takes us.

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[John1122]

0z Suite pt 1

ICON super suppressed. Ice on the gulf coast. After the system misses to the SE, it tries to gin up a couple of inches in East Tennessee as a back side pulse drops into the area. 

[TellicoWx]

0z GFS wants to crawl across gulf..not sure what to think of it lol. New run different solution.

[Reb]

Ok now I’m convinced someone needs to start a thread on this one. Legitimately in the game state wide. 

[ShawnEastTN]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

0z GFS wants to crawl across gulf..not sure what to think of it lol. New run different solution.

At least it gives and doesn't want to go cutter or transfer energy like last run.  Looks decent from qpf standpoint.

[ShawnEastTN]

First several hours would be big wet snow, last half of the storm though those ratios would begin increasing rapidly.  Probably the last several hours would be the lion share of accumulations due to improving ratios.

[John1122]

Another solution completely. The southern energy gets left behind and this is entirely from NS energy diving down into the gulf. 

At this point I'm going to hope the Euro AI is correct. It nailed the current system from 156 out and didn't change much. The Euro AI is a board wide weak slider that drops 4-8 inches forum wide.