Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:38 PM The trend for the past 48-72 hours is for more STJ and less trough extremes. We are looking for confluence. All of those systems way south of us...I suspect(no guarantee) they work well north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:57 PM MRX noted there are still significant timing issues withing the NBM. The 18z RGEM was slightly south. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 10:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:30 PM MRX is absolutely convinced there won't be any freezing rain and won't put it in any forecast. Their AFD even said because it was against climatology to get freezing rain here, they weren't forecasting it. Bizarre reasoning imo. They had my low at 27 with rain continuing from Sunday into Sunday night. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted Thursday at 10:31 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:31 PM Happy hour has arrived on the GFS for the Jan 10th-11th storm 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Thursday at 10:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:33 PM Yeah I was just about to say that. It was pretty close to a triple phase, as those things go anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 10:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:48 PM 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: MRX is absolutely convinced there won't be any freezing rain and won't put it in any forecast. Their AFD even said because it was against climatology to get freezing rain here, they weren't forecasting it. Bizarre reasoning imo. They had my low at 27 with rain continuing from Sunday into Sunday night. Many , especially younger Gen Mets tend to do the Climatology thing instead of looking over Data and forecasting from that even if it is a rare occurrence such as an Ice Storm. At least mention the possibility several days out and implement it moreso if Data continues showing it as we get Close to the Event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 10:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:51 PM The 18z GFS with a boomer, and room to trend north and west. Good run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 10:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:53 PM GFS is in the middle of a big run.........it caught the cutter first, ie it felt the amplification first. Might it be this time? Maybe. It sure seems like there should be a storm right where it is. Temps will plunge if true. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 10:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:58 PM The 12z EURO AIFS wasn't a bad run. I have been sitting on that nugget for a bit, just to see if it was supported by other runs. Nice couple of sliders. I think what we are seeing is modeling trending north with the base of the trough. That allows for the GOM/STJ to open up shop. What was in Key West a few days ago is now sliding across the Mid-South, and that makes much more sense. Time will tell if true or not. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:01 PM Essentially, we want to see a phase to our southeast. This weekend's storm moved well west of initial modeling. What I "think" we are seeing is the cold progressively pushing the storm track southeast. The cutter to start the pattern makes sense. We have seen that like 1,000x. I don't want to fight a suppressed system. Let's play ball with an amped system and see what we get. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 11:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:04 PM Post 300...looks like the GFS is gonna go for it again on this run. What we are also looking for is these types of runs to show up more often, ie where everything phases. While we have the NAO, it "should" slow everything down and make that more possible. I think the AO is still negative or forecast to do so, right? If so, those are two really good indicators for storms east of the MS. Well, that is enough from me for one run. Let's see if other modeling follows suit. Again, I know we don't talk a lot bout SE TN...but these tracks are decent for you all down that way and have been for several runs. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:06 PM Back in the day, we used to have a saying that we wanted everything headed to Cuba in the LR, and then let it work its way back. That a worked for us for a while...then it actually starting snowing on the Gulf Coast!!!! 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 11:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:08 PM 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Back in the day, we used to have a saying that we wanted everything headed to Cuba in the LR, and then let it work its way back. That a worked for us for a while...then it actually starting snowing on the Gulf Coast!!!! Yeah, think the GFS SE bias it used to have caused alot of that but, still the north trend seems to happen more than not. Maybe just not to the degree it used to . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:10 PM Lots of good things with this map. It'll most assuredly change. We want this to become more common on ensuing runs. It won't be there every run, but this is ideal. Ridge on the Pac Coast. NAO. Active northern stream. GOM open for business. Confluence here. Is it right? IDK. Lots of mirages of late, so we will wait until we see the whites of their eyes. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 11:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:12 PM 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, think the GFS SE bias it used to have caused alot of that but, still the north trend seems to happen more than not. Maybe just not to the degree it used to . If anything, extreme runs verifying are so rare. So, the trend is often to moderate towards norms. The norm is not Orlando. The GFS does have support from the 12z Euro AIFS. Need to reel that look in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Thursday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:17 PM 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Lots of good things with this map. It'll most assuredly change. We want this to become more common on ensuing runs. It won't be there every run, but this is ideal. Ridge on the Pac Coast. NAO. Active northern stream. GOM open for business. Confluence here. Is it right? IDK. Lots of mirages of late, so we will wait until we see the whites of their eyes. I like our chances this Winter as a region. I mean, if one considers how different this year is versus last and likely how different it will be from this time next year, one realizes how special it is to just be tracking opportunities! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Thursday at 11:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:36 PM Nice its showing what the CFS has been showing for several days,it finally flipped 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Thursday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:51 PM I still think JMA does the best for what ever reason if you are looking at the RMM's..JMHO 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 12:17 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:17 AM If the CFS is anywhere right the MJO signal should strenghten into the IO and possibly even stall out from a ERW after that towards the end of its showing a Kelvin Wave.Kelvin Waves can cause destructive interference with the MJO signal and it could actually be stronger than what the Euro maps shows above into the Maritime and not go back into the COD 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted Friday at 01:19 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:19 AM FWIW, smelling a big dog Definitely posting this for posterity and lols! I don't want a glacier... 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Friday at 01:21 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:21 AM Seeing on southernwx that the EuroAIFS had gone all in on the 11th storm. Still not out on weatherbell for me yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Friday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:50 AM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Friday at 02:06 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:06 AM 46 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Seeing on southernwx that the EuroAIFS had gone all in on the 11th storm. Still not out on weatherbell for me yet. 18z Euro AIFS: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Friday at 02:12 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:12 AM 4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z Euro AIFS: That phase looks very much like the GFS. Hopefully, we see that continue. Even on the misses yesterday, that is the general look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Friday at 02:12 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:12 AM Knox posted the ensemble. Here is the control for the Weeklies... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Friday at 02:12 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:12 AM Euro AI snow map from Bouncycorn, a met on SW who has a program that extracts model data for snow maps, and also blends every model run for an NMB type map. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted Friday at 02:36 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:36 AM 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Seeing on southernwx that the EuroAIFS had gone all in on the 11th storm. Still not out on weatherbell for me yet. Totally forgot about that forum. The similarities between 18z GFS and EuroAIFS are remarkable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Friday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:27 AM 0z RGEM is a lot of ice for TN. Maybe the cold is overdone. The 0z 12k NAM shifted the ice south but not quite to the TN/KY border. Modeling is maybe sensing the cold. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Friday at 03:29 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:29 AM 0z ICON and RGEM coming in a touch colder at the onset of precip for 1st system 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Friday at 03:40 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:40 AM RGEM has been consistent...ICON also slowed down some...timing will play a big factor....still think it's more of a nuisance ice if anything at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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