Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:06 PM Phased systems are what we should be seeing w/ the NAO lit. It slows everything down, and lets the northern and southern streams connect. At this range, I look more for pieces of the puzzle than actual details. Details are going to change, but those pieces are what we want. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Wednesday at 11:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:09 PM 9 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Yep, which helps that gulf low produce a snow storm for mid Georgia and South Carolina lol The models always don’t show the NW precip shield well. Plus a system like that will gain in latitude. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Thursday at 01:36 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:36 AM 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Popped a lee side low as well. The last two runs have been tempted to take that energy around the corner. Hand off of energy for sure. But yes, jog south on that run. Good to see you posting, Tellico! I've been lurking...you guys do a great job, and covered everything I could have added. Think we are headed for model mayhem...just gut feeling we may have some wild times ahead (May end up with 100" of fantasy snow but been awhile since we had modeling trying to sort thru this type upcoming pattern). For system #1, globals always has a hard time seeing the very low level cold (resolution not designed to) that gets trapped in the microclimates of the eastern valley...always has seemed like ice is a "surprise" event to most. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Thursday at 02:55 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:55 AM This is one reason why you should use the ensembles in the long range.Both the Euro and GFS showed this cut-off around the BAJAS last night,the Euro phased the system and it totally destroyed the good PNA,the ensembles didnt show this by the GEFS or EPS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 03:12 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:12 AM I don't think I've see models have this big of a timing difference this close. Now, the ICON has the system fully across the forum area by 7am Sunday morning. At the same time frame the NAM hasn't even got precip into Tennessee yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 03:29 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:29 AM Looking like at least another healthy Rain event for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 04:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:40 AM The Pacific is such a headache for us, once again. The PNA is neutral now and that's what killed the weekend storm. Then the ridge orientation is bad and we can't take advantage of the northern stream energy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 04:42 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:42 AM Just now, John1122 said: The Pacific is such a headache for us, once again. The PNA is neutral now and that's what killed the weekend storm. Then the ridge orientation is bad and we can't take advantage of the northern stream energy. Exactly. If that Ridge had stayed where it was originally projected we were golden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 05:09 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:09 AM The GFS just gave us around .1 to .2 of precip over 8 days from the 7th to the 15th. It's also not going to be extremely cold. I think 3 or 4 mornings below 20 for most of the region that run. So at least there's that. No frozen pipes, damaged vegetarion or blackouts to worry about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 06:04 AM Share Posted Thursday at 06:04 AM The Euro and Canadian back the energy for the potential storm after this weekend from Utah to the West coast of Central Mexico. It just hangs out there for a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 06:06 AM Share Posted Thursday at 06:06 AM The way the Euro is going, it may become a tropical system in the Pacific before this run ends. Down to 1009 MB and heading SW from Mexico. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 06:25 AM Share Posted Thursday at 06:25 AM That run of the Euro was made of middle fingers for East Tennessee. 150 hours of icebox cold but tumble weeds blow through it's so dry. Then 33 and rain while North of 40/west of Cookeville get a huge snow where precip shuts of immediately once it drops below freezing in the East. Not even from a cutter either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Thursday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:54 PM 6 hours ago, John1122 said: That run of the Euro was made of middle fingers for East Tennessee. 150 hours of icebox cold but tumble weeds blow through it's so dry. Then 33 and rain while North of 40/west of Cookeville get a huge snow where precip shuts of immediately once it drops below freezing in the East. Not even from a cutter either. Yea, that does give the finger to East TN peeps but looks good for my neck of the woods, however, will almost assuredly change just as all of the historic cold has done! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted Thursday at 01:29 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:29 PM Something I to watch for: NAM is significantly colder for the Sunday/Monday system. Icing much farther south than globals. We will see if it catches up with the other models or if it is on to something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Thursday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:45 PM 1 hour ago, Silas Lang said: Something I to watch for: NAM is significantly colder for the Sunday/Monday system. Icing much farther south than globals. We will see if it catches up with the other models or if it is on to something. That is a quarter inch in my area, doesnt really go out far enough to really see anything past couple hours early Sunday am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Thursday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:47 PM 1 hour ago, Silas Lang said: Something I to watch for: NAM is significantly colder for the Sunday/Monday system. Icing much farther south than globals. We will see if it catches up with the other models or if it is on to something. 1 minute ago, matt9697 said: That is a quarter inch in my area, doesnt really go out far enough to really see anything past couple hours early Sunday am The 12Z has placement back north of TN line largely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:54 PM Maybe I am in the minority, but I don't see much has changed. Just glancing at ensembles, they still look very cold. The GEPS has days that are 25-30 BN. The 6z GFS has the winter storm after the rain/ice situation this weekend. Are they as cold as they were 4-5 days ago? No. But...that kind of cold doesn't allow for much snow at all. In order to get snow, the cold has to relent at some level. The pattern looks good to roughly the 20th or even beyond. Ensembles are the way to go. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted Thursday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:55 PM Just now, Carvers Gap said: Maybe I am in the minority, but I don't see much has changed. Just glancing at ensembles, they still look very cold. The GEPS has days that are 25-30 BN. The 6z GFS has the winter storm after the rain/ice situation this weekend. Are they as cold as they were 4-5 days ago? No. But...that kind of cold doesn't allow for much snow at all. In order to get snow, they cold has to relent at some level. The pattern looks good to roughly the 20th or even beyond. Ensembles are the way to go. Yea, I would be surprised if people in the forum area didnt score at least once with this pattern, couldnt ask for any better one honestly! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:45 PM 9 hours ago, John1122 said: That run of the Euro was made of middle fingers for East Tennessee. 150 hours of icebox cold but tumble weeds blow through it's so dry. Then 33 and rain while North of 40/west of Cookeville get a huge snow where precip shuts of immediately once it drops below freezing in the East. Not even from a cutter either. Yep. Product of what you mentioned earlier. Western Ridge Placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Thursday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:57 PM From a purely deterministic model perspective, the 12z Euro continues to give us the Johnny Cash pattern. Although it reaaalllly tried to bring out the s/w in the southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Thursday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:59 PM It is a little icier than previous runs for the 6th: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted Thursday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:23 PM 19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: It is a little icier than previous runs for the 6th: Yeah, has that CAD valley look. Looks like it is banking against the plateau. Can really see it as the warm air starts coming in and even as elevated areas are overtaken by warm air. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Thursday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:15 PM Stinks when the thread is not Hot. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:02 PM 45 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Stinks when the thread is not Hot. So, the GFS found this weekend's cutter when no other model even remotely had that solution. Now, take a look at what it does at 12z. Honestly, I have been watching football and enjoying the cooler weather. I do like the storm for the 10-11th timeframe to be something at least for the southern portions of the forum area. If you live in Chattanooga or Birmingham or Oxford, or even Memphis...worth watching at least from a distance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:02 PM 1 hour ago, Silas Lang said: Yeah, has that CAD valley look. Looks like it is banking against the plateau. Can really see it as the warm air starts coming in and even as elevated areas are overtaken by warm air. That is the exact setup you mentioned the other day... look at the downslope in the upper valley and the cold banked against the Plateau. These are super sneak for places like Knoxville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:04 PM To me modeling looks like it is replacing the Arctic look w/ normal January cold and normal STJ activity. Just my opinion, but I can't complain. I bet we hookup with something before this is all said and done. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 08:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:44 PM Just looking at the long range. I believe we hang onto this pattern to the 20th. Some modeling suggests through the 25th. You can see at the very end of ensembles the trough with an extension to the northwest(GFS especially). That extension is the first sign of a retrogression of the trough into the Mountain West. I think we see back and forth cold/warm between the 20th and 28th...then we break for warm for an undetermined amount of time. My guess is that most of February is warm with intermittent cold shots. Then, I think March is likely cold. January was the wild card month. Looks like we are back on schedule after January. Something to watch, I have seen some pretty bad sever season analogs popping up recently for late March into April. I can't name which ones off the top of my head - maybe that 1960s analog a few pages back. For a big storm, there is a window from maybe Jan 16th to Jan 25 as the trough backs West. That puts the trough in a good spot for a Miller A/Inland runner. Hopefully, we can time a piece of energy as it retreats. Cosgrove things winter comes back after the late Jan lull. I am not so sure. However, the Euro Weeklies (control) shows only a brief relaxation to warmth, and then the trough back eastward. That control can sometimes sniff out problems with the ensemble. That Mountain West trough has been kicked back and kicked back. I have February as really warm. I feel much less confident today that we see an extended snow pattern. I would say most of you feel the same. However, I am taught this lesson over and over. When you see stuff in the d10-15, sometimes it disappears around d10. Then it comes back. Also, more times than not the depth of the trough is over modeled and comes back north. We WANT systems to our south on modeling right now IMHO. I think we get 2-3 systems before this is all said and done. Don't be surprised if severe cold shows back up on modeling. The GEPS has it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:05 PM 59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: To me modeling looks like it is replacing the Arctic look w/ normal January cold and normal STJ activity. Just my opinion, but I can't complain. I bet we hookup with something before this is all said and done. Yeah, couple things fouled the projected long range pattern up from what was being advertised. The Western Ridge, in my mind, being the biggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:21 PM Losing the -EPO really hurt the cross polar flow/N stream energy potential models had been showing in the long range. This weekend wouldn't likely be a cutter if the -EPO had stuck. It's just rare in my experience to see storms crashing into the Pac NW that end up doing anything here and it's been a parade into Oregon to BC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 09:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:35 PM 32 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, couple things fouled the projected long range pattern up from what was being advertised. The Western Ridge, in my mind, being the biggest. The 12 GEPS is still just ridiculously cold. The Euro Weeklies move to a more La Nina cold setup from Jan 20-30...cold stretching from Montana to TN. I am still not sure anything is fouled right now. Still looks cold, just not extreme. EPO is up and down for the next several weeks. PNA looks like the base. My guess is that the base of that trough gets attacked several times per the GFS. Again, the good thing about the GFS winning the battle with the cutter....it might be right with what is after. 12z was a good run. Good signal for cold and light/moderate event before the pattern breaks after the 20th. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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