Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[tnweathernut]

I’m definitely more interested in the storm after the storm…..  It looks like the writing is on the wall for a strong push of warming with storm one.  I had this written before 12z, but when your 21 yr old daughter home from UT comes to you and asks if you want to take her to Cracker Barrel, the answer is always yes.  :-)

[jaxjagman]

5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Since the long range 12z Euro decided it hates us and wants us to die (and at the risk of being accused of throwing spaghetti against a wall) I thought I'd try a bit of a deep dive this AM. 

Upstream tropical first:

I hadn't looked at the convection in a while because we've had much more exciting stuff to look at the past week. But looking at the MC regions, it looks like there is still a lot of convection hung up there:

 

In fact I would say the MJO 4/5/6 regions have the majority of the tropical convection across the globe:

This is, I think, shown in the RMM plots with the data plotted in such a way as to stall it out again, for almost 5 days now:

 

Sometime in the next week models seem to think convection will die out over the MC and we will get more overt he Western Hemisphere and especially Africa:

Those are the BOMM, GEFS, and EPS evaluations of where the MJO is and where it may be going. 

Verification for GEFS at least (all I have access to) has been pretty good the past week, but it tried to kill it off too quickly in the 2 week period. 

(2 week verifictation on top):

 

So I think is probably a good bet that at least so far as were can count on tropical convection, we may finally get to see what a nice clean pass through the more favorable phases looks like, at our climatological peak for winter weather. Does that guarantee anything, no, or course not, but I don't know that we've seen that progression in a while. But I have to think that the models seeing the tropics up stream of us as a little stagnant for now, has some implications for how they handle the downstream pattern. 

As far as any stratosphere stuff goes, I don't see anything that makes me think the SPV will be anything but strong and wound up in teh foreseeable future at the atmospheric levels available to me (10mb, 30mb, and 50mb), but here is a pretty gif:

 

Don't really have time for more right now, but some reasons for optimism IMO even after whatever happens between Jan 6 - 11. 

 

 

 

 

Think this is could be from a KW.The MJO looks to still be headed into the NH but dives into the COD as the signal weakens.But what most models keep showing it should strenghten as it heads towards Africa and  the IO  at this time.Least thats my what i believe.

[jaxjagman]

Find out in a few days.The CFS continues to show  possibly a ERW into the IO down the road,its not backed down any.This should/could stall out the MJO signal or even make it stronger into the IO.Dunno,surely could change

[matt9697]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Find out in a few days.The CFS continues to show  possibly a ERW into the IO down the road,its not backed down any.This should/could stall out the MJO signal or even make it stronger into the IO.Dunno,surely could change

This is above my paygrade, what does that mean for our weather in TN?

[jaxjagman]

41 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

This is above my paygrade, what does that mean for our weather in TN?

Should still be cold.Long range i'd surely stick with the ensembles

[ShawnEastTN]

WPC this afternoon issuance:

[jaxjagman]

15 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

WPC this afternoon issuance:


 

Shouldnt have any impact on us.That's a strong LLJ 55-65 KTS coming through Tn,thats a big warm nose

[Matthew70]

Hopefully we are not cold & dry.  Possible yes but crossing fingers some clippers come thru. 

[Scottie16]

Shouldnt have any impact on us.That's a strong LLJ 55-65 KTS coming through Tn,thats a big warm nose

Surface temps are hovering around freezing even with the warm nose. It’ll be interesting to see what the NAM shows.


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[Matthew70]

It’s looking as if the temps are moderating.  Now only a couple days below freezing on my TWC app.  Back into 40’s by next weekend. 

[*Flash*]

I think parts of southern KY may bust a bit on expected wintry QPF totals from the weekend storm but overall, I say we're dodging an icy bullet. Sharp ice/snow accumulation cutoffs into central KY seem likely but we'll see. Really hoping this system plays a healthy part in setting the table for us mid-month. My current concern is the Sunday/Monday system being a miss to our north and the following system a miss to our south. 

[Scottie16]

NAM showing -5 temperature difference with the warm nose.


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[Scottie16]

I believe we see another shift south with the GFS.


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[John1122]

The DGEX  errr Euro AI, is a perfect slider snow storm for us from next Thursday into early Saturday morning. Granted, the weekend event coming up was also a perfect snowstorm for us at one point on the AI model.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro AIFS Miller A...heads to Hatteras right after this.

 

Euro Weeklies ensemble.

 

Euro Weeklies control...

 

[Carvers Gap]

The good thing about the AIFS solution is that is very similar(almost exact) to the GFS at 12z as well.  This will change some at this range...just shows the potential.

[Daniel Boone]

23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z Euro AIFS Miller A...heads to Hatteras right after this.

 

Euro Weeklies ensemble.

 

Euro Weeklies control...

 

If those ensemble depictions were to be realized about 100 miles further South than shown we'd be in great shape. Looks sorta like the highest expected averaged out area is inline with the Track of this upcoming Sunday System. 

[TellicoWx]

You guys along I40 and points north in eastern valley wouldn't let your guard down on system #1...last few runs keep taking small steps back south. 

[Bigbald]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

You guys along I40 and points north wouldn't let your guard down on system #1...last few runs keep taking small steps back south. 

I thought we had er, came in alot flatter 18z.  Close!

[Scottie16]

You guys along I40 and points north wouldn't let your guard down on system #1...last few runs keep taking small steps back south. 

I don’t believe that warm nose makes it up the valley.


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[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

You guys along I40 and points north in eastern valley wouldn't let your guard down on system #1...last few runs keep taking small steps back south. 

NAM is showing confluence shifting east with each run now though. If it's right, probably can chalk up it not coming further South. Had the Storm came sooner we'd got it. Had it came a day or so later , it would of been forced South by Canadian HP coming down and we'd likely been hit as well. Just bad timing for us.

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

You guys along I40 and points north in eastern valley wouldn't let your guard down on system #1...last few runs keep taking small steps back south. 

Popped a lee side low as well.  The last two runs have been tempted to take that energy around the corner.  Hand off of energy for sure.  But yes, jog south on that run.  Good to see you posting, Tellico!

[John1122]

200 miles too far south that run of the GFS. This is the golden age for the Gulf Coast if that comes to pass. Their 30 year snow average will be improved just from 2018 and this year alone if this comes to pass.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS was a good run.  At this range, they all aren't going to connect.  The northern stream tracked through the GLs.  A low in the Lakes is not going to score.  Still, that was very close.  We take that at this range.  I just want to see the players on the field.  All of the pieces were there, they just didn't time it up.

[Carvers Gap]

The other thing, that SLP is still going to climb a bunch in latitude even when it misses.

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at 500 for the 18z GFS and the d8-10 system...there was a phase, it was just kind of wonky which at this range is top be expected.  But we take a phase at 500.

[Carvers Gap]

The northern vortex somehow separated like the inside of a cinnamon roll...and cut into the lakes while the rest phases.  That is how close that was to being very big.  That would have been a slp further west if it phased.  New is left.

[Scottie16]

High that was in Alaska moved down to North Dakota on that run too.


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[matt9697]

6 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

High that was in Alaska moved down to North Dakota on that run too.


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Yep, which helps that gulf low produce a snow storm for mid Georgia and South Carolina lol 

[Carvers Gap]

The good thing about the past two runs of the GFS (12z and 18z) is that model is phasing the heck out of every system after d8.  Another one after the one I just posted.