Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Models have been dishing today.  I won't go through all of the potential scenarios, but some really cold air masses are interacting w/ northern stream energy and/or southern stream energy. Pretty good table being set.  Could it be a head fake?  Sure, we live in the Upper South - that is the norm.  That said, what is being shown on modeling is a pretty textbook setup for winter weather in the East.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z (at 500 anyways) is probably not a super realistic run.  But holy Batman, what a block up top.  That is a pretty extreme run.  

[Carvers Gap]

This is waaaay out there, but....here is the run total.  The run is even more impressive at 500.  Happy Hour, indeed.

 

[John1122]

I saw an analog package and it was '96, 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2018. 

2018 was a clunker for me, block buster cold but only 2 inches of snow, I know area to the east got a 12 inch event. 

Those others were snow machine winters. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I saw an analog package and it was '96, 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2018. 

2018 was a clunker for me, block buster cold but only 2 inches of snow, I know area to the east got a 12 inch event. 

Those others were snow machine winters. 

Same here. All but 2018 were great.

[Carvers Gap]

Speaking of analogs, checkout the CPC's analogs for d8-14.  Look at the ones which are double weighted.

19850109
20001227
19951229
19850118
19810103
19951224
19970110
19770121
19770115
20091221

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Same here. All but 2018 were great.

Did you see Cosgrove's comments on FB this afternoon?  I would post them, but kind of feel like I shouldn't post his personal comments from FB.  He was banging the drum.

[Carvers Gap]

19 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I saw an analog package and it was '96, 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2018. 

2018 was a clunker for me, block buster cold but only 2 inches of snow, I know area to the east got a 12 inch event. 

Those others were snow machine winters. 

2018...the rivers froze here.  I may have had a pipe bust.  That was one of those winters if it had snowed a couple of times, it would have taken a month to dig out.  

Good post.  I added the CPC analogs above for today.  I can never remember about 1977...it was stellar, right?  If so, 70% of their analogs are from benchmark winters.

[Carvers Gap]

Just a quick break for me this evening.  This is the 30d 500 map that the Euro Weeklies rolled with today....If we had BN heights east of Hawaii, it would be BBQ sauce(to quote the great Ted Lasso).  But that is pretty much BBQ sauce right there as is.

[John1122]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

2018...the rivers froze here.  I may have had a pipe bust.  That was one of those winters if it had snowed a couple of times, it would have taken a month to dig out.  

Good post.  I added the CPC analogs above for today.  I can never remember about 1977...it was stellar, right?  If so, 70% of their analogs are from benchmark winters.

January 1977 was one of the all-time cold/snow winters valley wide. It was especially epic for Nashville. 

[John1122]

Going off memory, January 1977 was around -15 imby with multiple heavy snow events. It was below zero 11 times and the highest temperature of the month was in the 40s. 

Nashville got almost 20 inches of snow and was like -17 for the month. 

[Carvers Gap]

That is a pretty insane analog package by CPC for d8-14. I have no idea if they are right, but thought it was worth a share as those folks at CPC get paid to do this. 

[Carvers Gap]

Thought I would grab these and share.  Do I trust the GFS or GEFS?  Nope, but what a reversal!  Here are some thoughts on the 18z GEFS.  I have to say, the 12z Euro wasn't too far behind this.  The CMC and GEPS were way colder.  A lot of this is just now coming into focus.  So, we will proceed with caution.  But since most of us wait all summer to look at maps like this, it is fun to discuss.  Pretty massive storm signals for early to mid January.

Image 1:  That time frame probably is going to have to be watched.  The NAO is a bit forced, but it still works.

 

Image 2:  This is probably the best timeframe.   PNA/EPO ridge.  And...confluence.
\

 

Image 3:  The single day temps are frigid for an ensemble.  It is worth noting that this is during our coldest month of the year.  Those are ~10 degree below normal departures for a 7d time frame. 

 

Image 4: 12z GEFS snow map for d1-16. When the NE TN map gets to 5-6" of snow, probably best to pay attention on my part.

 

It is Christmas, and I had planned on taking a break today.  However, we have been blessed with some crazy fun stuff to discuss.  So, the dishes are done, and I am sitting down to look at stuff for a bit!

 

[Carvers Gap]

Details are understandably sketchy at this range, and modeling is accentuating differing pieces of energy.  The 12z Euro managed to get this during the 12z suite(mostly a slider around 1/6).

 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies continue w/ the goods for January....You can see the storm tracks - slider, cutters, inland runners, and Nor'easter's possible. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

This is the CFSv2 from 12z.  This is for all of January.  I actually like this a bit better as the confluence on this map is nearly perfect.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Last of the maps for a bit.  Pay attention to the AO map.  That has been a missing piece during the past few winters. 

 

Here is the 18z GFS deterministic AO.  If it goes there, game on......

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

January 1977 was one of the all-time cold/snow winters valley wide. It was especially epic for Nashville. 

It was incredible.

[Daniel Boone]

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is the CFSv2 from 12z.  This is for all of January.  I actually like this a bit better as the confluence on this map is nearly perfect.

 

That looks 1960ish Winter like.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

That looks 1960ish Winter like.

This is old school stuff for sure.  I have been super hesitant to post about it lately.  I have been staring at maps similar to this for 2-3 weeks and trying to stay reasonably quiet about it.   These are the cold analogs for January which most of us have discussed on this.  I am not totally sure of the drivers of this(but analogs have precedence for it), but what worries me a bit more is that modeling is really  beginning to lean colder.  There are a lot of folks in the mountains who would struggle with a cold winter due to Helene.  Hopefully, local agencies are gearing up.  If it is a false alarm, so be it.  But modeling has looked pretty wild today.  We will see if it holds.  Real feels in the mountains are below zero on a lot of these model runs.

[Carvers Gap]

The GEFS ext(Euro equivalent of the weeklies) is rolling right now.  It is equally impressive.  

[Coach B]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Going off memory, January 1977 was around -15 imby with multiple heavy snow events. It was below zero 11 times and the highest temperature of the month was in the 40s. 

Nashville got almost 20 inches of snow and was like -17 for the month. 

For OHX the most impressive stat from January 1977 was they recorded snow cover for 26 out of 28 days in one stretch dating back to the end of December. Looks like it came from at least SIX different events. That's pretty impressive for non elevated areas in Tennessee. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Did you see Cosgrove's comments on FB this afternoon?  I would post them, but kind of feel like I shouldn't post his personal comments from FB.  He was banging the drum.

I'll check it out. Coz is hard to beat at Medium and Long range as we know. 

I used to stay in touch with him . Need to catch up with him.

An interesting bit of info ;  He was the reason Dave Dierks of WCYB got into Meteorology. They were College Pals at Iowa University and he talked Dave into changing Major to Meteorology. 

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

2018...the rivers froze here.  I may have had a pipe bust.  That was one of those winters if it had snowed a couple of times, it would have taken a month to dig out.  

Good post.  I added the CPC analogs above for today.  I can never remember about 1977...it was stellar, right?  If so, 70% of their analogs are from benchmark winters.

Yes, there are 4 creeks by my house that converge into a large one nearby. All of them froze solid. Ice was 6 inches thick on the big one that runs slower. 

6 inches of snow would have sent temps to -10 to -20. 

[Daniel Boone]

56 minutes ago, Coach B said:

For OHX the most impressive stat from January 1977 was they recorded snow cover for 26 out of 28 days in one stretch dating back to the end of December. Looks like it came from at least SIX different events. That's pretty impressive for non elevated areas in Tennessee. 

We had Snow cover on North facing slopes and Shady area's from Mid December to mid February. Rivers and Ponds were frozen and Snow covered. 

[Carvers Gap]

GEFS ext 30d 500 map...AN heights over Alaska, AN heights over the Davis Straits(need that a little to the northwest IMHO), EPO ridge, trough east of Hawaii, trough pushing into the Aleutians, and trough in the eastern half of the US.  If forced to find a negative, it is that the negative NAO is too strong.   But if you go back and look at some decent winter patterns, they look a lot like this.  FTR, I suspect the NAO is overdone, and the EPO is underdone. 

 

[John1122]

This run, the GFS gins up a significant plateau/east winter storm on the 2nd. It was showing that a while back and lost it. The Euro had it at times too.  Another snow system arrives before the 10th of January, but lighter.

[John1122]

The ICON looks like it was going to be similar to the GFS at the end of it's run. Maybe a day  slower. The Canadian is a cutter basically a day earlier, as is the Euro.

[nrgjeff]

Quick look at 00Z ensembles. We can see from members and operationals that we have chances of good things, and chances of typical disappointment. 

Ensembles generally reflect the two less than ideal (but better than average) scenarios. Euro goes cold fast, but behind a quickly moving New Year's system. GFS has a more southern track, and a day later which makes sense south, but cold air is not in place. Either of those scenarios sound more realistic than a big ol' snowstorm, but anything is possible. 

It's still Day 7-8. Perhaps by the weekend we can talk about more details. Hopefully we avoid a debacle and instead escalate.

[Carvers Gap]

Now I am in the correct thread.

Pretty decent 12z GFS run incoming.   The CMC is similar temp wise but without the wave.  The past two Euro AIFS runs have picked up on the ridge that slides past after the first in a series of probable cold shots.  I think the AIFS is far too aggressive in pushing the PNA into the western Plains.  The GFS and CMC look like a good progression to me.  Is the GFS back to normal…that IDK.  I suspect that little wave eventually gets suppressed, but something to watch for future runs.  The second cold shot could be a doozy.