Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Who was it that owned the metal snowman?

Greyhound

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

That is just mind boggling.  Got the entire hemisphere, and the PV found our zipcode on that run.  Those analogs above might be right.

[Carvers Gap]

@Greyhound, we need an update on the metal snowman.

[jaxjagman]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

 

All time low in Nashville is -17

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

All time low in Nashville is -17

I "think" that is snow on the ground after the anafront.  I think that is our best path to snow.  With ratios in that cold, we could see 4-8" of snow easy.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

All time low in Nashville is -17

Those are the lows that I wasn't sure I would see again in my lifetime.  We are about to find out if the atmosphere still has that type of extreme in it.  I kind of hope not.  But OTH, it would be amazing to see.  I guess I don't have a choice either way!

[Carvers Gap]

Somebody has a 55 degree departure from normal.  This run is just silly cold.  When the GFS cuts with that first system, it goes wildly cold.

[jaxjagman]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I "think" that is snow on the ground after the anafront.  I think that is our best path to snow.  With ratios in that cold, we could see 4-8" of snow easy.

YEP,i was thinking the same thing

[Jed33]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The 486 line over Tennessee? The Heat Miser must be boiling mad. 

The polar vortex actually coming into TN like in 1985 if the thicknesses are that low! Looks like it on the GFS! Wow that was an incredible system with arctic powder over our area and a Deep South FL/GA coastal 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

YEP,i was thinking the same thing

That has kind of been the formula during past winters for snow.  Now, what would be wild would be what John had mentioned which is kind of daily snows which modeling doesn't pick up, because rations are crazy high.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Jed33 said:

The polar vortex actually coming into TN like in 1985 if the thicknesses are that low! Looks like it on the GFS! Wow that was an incredible system with arctic powder over our area and a Deep South FL/GA coastal 

1985 was triple weighted by CPC today and 1977 was double weighted for their d8-14 analogs.  The mechanism is there.  The thing about a cutter with that type of cold lurking...it can grab the mother load and send it.

[jaxjagman]

That some insane cold by the GFS,its almost freezing down into Cuba..lmao

[Coach B]

Those crazy cold temps for TN are probably heavily influenced by the huge dump of snow put down upstream in Missouri earlier in the run. 

[matt9697]

2 minutes ago, Coach B said:

Those crazy cold temps for TN are probably heavily influenced by the huge dump of snow put down upstream in Missouri earlier in the run. 

Yea, that is essentially a glacier, no time to modify

[Carvers Gap]

Here is an interesting stat.  The northern keys have seen frost.  Key West has never had frost or wintry precipitation dating back to the earliest European settlers' records.

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Coach B said:

Those crazy cold temps for TN are probably heavily influenced by the huge dump of snow put down upstream in Missouri earlier in the run. 

Agree.  Greased the skids, and a very realistic scenario.

[Carvers Gap]

This pretty much sums up that run, and Holston's image earlier is even better.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Daniel Boone, the NYE analog package...Those are frigid.

19850119
19800122
19550125
20001228
20070125
19770120
19761229
19691231
19561230
19850124

Yeah, saw those earlier. One dud in there snow wise. 2000-01 . 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Joy

 

 

 

There's that Ozark to Kentucky heavy snow zone.

[jaxjagman]

Reminds me of the DGEX,we use to see this all the time

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

There's that Ozark to Kentucky heavy snow zone.

There used to be a high precip pivot in SW NC and Upstate SC, right?  I remember looking at that as a kid, and wondering how that got there.

[Save the itchy algae!]

Might have to go buy that indoor propane heater I saw at Lowe's earlier today if this comes to fruition.

Got one of those for my son’s early season baseball games. Can’t wait to use it


.

[Greyhound]

[mention=10090]Greyhound[/mention], we need an update on the metal snowman.

Well, my wife has it hanging in the carport this year and not on the front door. This is the first time she has had it there. Considering the wild swings some of these models are showing, I have concern that the current placement of the metal snowman is causing some anomalous shifts within the biosphere that we call the “Tennessee Valley”.

What say ye gents…….shall we ride this out and see what comes to fruition?

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

Well, my wife has it hanging in the carport this year and not on the front door. This is the first time she has had it there. Considering the wild swings some of these models are showing, I have concern that the current placement of the metal snowman is causing some anomalous shifts within the biosphere that we call the “Tennessee Valley”.

What say ye gents…….shall we ride this out and see what comes to fruition?

Butterly effect!

[John1122]

It's a small tick, but 5 or 6 days away a few small ones mean the world in this situation. But the Euro was slightly weaker at 500 out in front of the system on the 18z run. It was a tick further south as a result. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's a small tick, but 5 or 6 days away a few small ones mean the world in this situation. But the Euro was slightly weaker at 500 out in front of the system on the 18z run. It was a tick further south as a result. 

Used to be with formidable blocking in place there was a South Trend with the Models within the last 3-4 days before Event providing the Blocking wasn't waning or moving out.

[Carvers Gap]

18z Euro feeling the cold...much colder run.  I agree w/ Boone...good chance this trends southward given the strength of the incoming cold.  I would not be surprised to see an EC blizzard w/ this or the trailer.  

[Carvers Gap]

The ensemble is warmer.  At this range, we might transition to the deterministic leading the way and the ensemble trying to catch up.  Remember, storms reappear often at 5 days......

[dwagner88]

I’ve never seen snow verify here from an anafront. Count me as rooting against that. I would rather expect frigid and dry. 

[John1122]

ICON is bringing our energy onshore in California. It's actually moving over Las Vegas now instead of west into the Pacific.