Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Matthew70]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Not sure,the Euro today is showing a LLJ 60-70KTS,wouldnt rule out thunder

Heavy rains also.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Joy

 

 

 

[Matthew70]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Joy

Yeah hard pass on that. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This freezing rain set up is a weird one to me. This isn't a traditional CAD high, but one sliding down from Manitoba SSE. 

If the high was anchored over New England, I'd say we wouldn't have to worry about much ice IMBY, but there is a lot of large scale confluence helping it hunker down towards us. 

Lol it transfers from Fentress county to Savannah. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

If the Euro is right about precipitation amounts and the GFS/CMC are right about the temps, we have a big problem.  We do not want heavy rain hitting the surface which is below freezing.  It certainly looks like somebody in KY and/or TN is going to deal with this potential.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

This freezing rain set up is a weird one to me. This isn't a traditional CAD high, but one sliding down from Manitoba SSE. 

If the high was anchored over New England, I'd say we wouldn't have to worry about much ice IMBY, but there is a lot of large scale confluence helping it hunker down towards us. 

Lol it transfers from Fentress county to Savannah. 

 

ZR in  TN is generally realized with a hp just west of the Apps which funnels cold down on this side.  That 1040 high riding over the top is a big problem.  That said, the GFS puts ice where a warm nose should be.  However, if this arrives at night or first thing in the morning I have seen evaporational cooling creat cold temps at the surface, and then lock it in.  

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If the Euro is right about precipitation amounts and the GFS/CMC are right about the temps, we have a big problem.  We do not want heavy rain hitting the surface which is below freezing.  It certainly looks like somebody in KY and/or TN is going to deal with this potential.

Yeah the timing is still off by the GFS,its looks slower and seemingly colder air presses in,this still could change,both could still be wrong

[Carvers Gap]

@Daniel Boone, the NYE analog package...Those are frigid.

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Well, let's see what it does with the second system now. 

As of 200 hours it has a vort streak aimed at a shortwave over s. TX and the TPV lobe SW of Hudson's Bay

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Well, let's see what it does with the second system now. 

As of 200 hours it has a vort streak aimed at a shortwave over s. TX and the TPV lobe SW of Hudson's Bay

Congratulations, Orlando?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Congratulations, Orlando?

Already have light snow in the FL panhandle at 210. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I don't know I think I might get it done this time. No weird hung up messes over Baja:

as long as that TPV orients just right 

[John1122]

What would be truly disappointing here would be if the Northern Stream dries up. I was happiest about this pattern because it was loaded with NS energy that gives you those fluffy 1-3 inch snows. 

[Carvers Gap]

If we get cold like the GFS is depicting on the 10th, and anafront is very plausible.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

At least we have a nice arctic front at hour 234

[Holston_River_Rambler]

TPV dropping in a crushing everything to oblivion. 

[matt9697]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

If we get cold like the GFS is depicting on the 10th, and anafront is very plausible.

Thats a anafront if I have seen one 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Congratulations, Orlando?

[Carvers Gap]

Man, 258 on the GFS....chasing some all-time record lows.

[Wurbus]

Holy smokes this is some really cold air. Widespread -10 to -15 temps with wind chills in the -30 to -40 range

[Carvers Gap]

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I know it isn't for our area, but the GFS drops the low that forms along the east Coast almost 20mb in 6 hours! 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ah yes the casual everyday -40 windchill 

[John1122]

The 486 line over Tennessee? The Heat Miser must be boiling mad. 

[matt9697]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

 

That will be hard to take if people dont have power because of ice 

[jaxjagman]

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Holy smokes this is some really cold air. Widespread -10 to -15 temps with wind chills in the -30 to -40 range

All time record lows within reach on that run.  That is a textbook example of why modeling is a mess today.  Modeling just isn't built to handle cold like that at this latitude. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Ah yes the casual everyday -40 windchill 

Feels kind of toasty at just -31 at TRI. 

I am getting DMs from people in Florida who have found a missing elk, and would like to return it.

[Carvers Gap]

Who was it that owned the metal snowman?

[Wurbus]

Might have to go buy that indoor propane heater I saw at Lowe's earlier today if this comes to fruition.