Daniel Boone Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 One thing that has happened irt the 6th System in particular is the Ridge out West is further West and not very strong allowing the SW System to pull the Cold further west as well. We wanted the Trough further west than what we had in early December and what was being advertised but, didn't count on it dropping down the Rockies and Southern Plains as looks to be the Case. A tad further East down the Plains/ Ms Valley with the storm either transferring to Gulf or moving ene from Louisiana/Mississippi area would be great. As it stands, it may alter the 500mb Structure. With the MJO projected low amp 8 to possibly 1 it may not be enough to help if the structure gets off kilter from what we want and has been advertised so long. Could be what the EPS is "glitching" on . Just a wild arse guess. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: We haven't just lost the deterministic Euro. We have lost the EPS top to bottom. It has thrown out some really strange runs of late(just every once in a while after being rock steady for more runs than I can count). Temp wise, it has lost a good chunk of the cold as well - entire run. I think what is going on right now is that modeling is struggling with very cold temps coming into NA along with a complex storm pattern. Right now, I don't trust any of them. However, the 12z GEFS and GEPS seem to be pretty steady without any breaks in continuity. For now...for now...I ride with those two and toss the EPS. Operational Euro is probably good through d6 or d7. I would suspect ice to rain for Sunday....but I don't trust any model right now. Ride with the ensembles until things settle down a bit. We generally go through wild swings when cold air is in play. Also, when do models lose storms? Yep, bout right now. Yeah, this isn’t a Lucy with the football situation. It’s probably more the models rubbing their eyes, second guessing data validity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 18z ICON has a totally different solution and has the 500mb low spinning/wandering off the California coast at hour 100. Completely cut it off. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 10 minutes ago, 1234snow said: 18z ICON has a totally different solution and has the 500mb low spinning/wandering off the California coast at hour 100. Completely cut it off. LOL. I came here to ask if I was looking at the map wrong.....it is THAT different!!! Like it isn't even there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 @John1122, you watch the ICON pretty closely. What is up with that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 16 minutes ago, 1234snow said: 18z ICON has a totally different solution and has the 500mb low spinning/wandering off the California coast at hour 100. Completely cut it off. The 500 vort maps cut it off west of Baja!!!! Talk about digging into the Southwest(in the eastern Pac now). Like it looks tropical at 500. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @John1122, you watch the ICON pretty closely. What is up with that run? I've no clue on that one. Happy hour German style I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The Euro Weeklies control and ensemble maps will make everyone happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, John1122 said: I've no clue on that one. Happy hour German style I guess. That model passed out about half way through Happy Hour. LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That model passed out about half way through Happy Hour. LOL. It took advantage of the buy one get second one half price. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 18z GFS looks like it is going to cut....little more separation between it and the system in front. That allows the ridge to pop just a hair more. Let's see....just an educated guess as to how it is coming onto the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I was really hoping the 18z GFS would go to Baja like the ICON, and make all of us rethink what we know about weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 12 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: It took advantage of the buy one get second one half price. Bout like the NCAA selection committee giving Boise State to PSU for a second round game AFTER giving them SMU for a first round game. Just makes no sense whatsoever. At least I can watch football tomorrow and not have to suffer through watching the Jan 6 low cut all day on modeling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The 18z GFS has a small trailing vortex on this run which wasn't there before. Hey, let's just do it different every, single time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS has a small trailing vortex on this run which wasn't there before. Hey, let's just do it different every, single time. Happy hour drinks all around! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Is this continuity from the 18z GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 GFS isnt giving up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 It's def. a bit north of 12z, but still some front end snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I’m thinking the CMC is going to be the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: It's def. a bit north of 12z, but still some front end snow and ice. HP to the north looks stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, jaxjagman said: HP to the north looks stronger We need a nervous emoji or gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The GFS really doesn't like modern electricity - ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 nah,its cutting through Tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Out to 138 and it's warmer from some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 We are going to have a big ole slop fest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Be interesting to see what the winter precip (sleet/ ice/ snow) look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 That is just a nasty, nasty run by the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, Matthew70 said: We are going to have a big ole slop fest. Not sure,the Euro today is showing a LLJ 60-70KTS,wouldnt rule out thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Looks remarkably similar to the CMC...whoever said that - I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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