Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC is a slider across the TN Valley w/ a front end episode of ice....E TN is susceptible to this if it comes in at night or early morning.

[Wurbus]

Ice and Kuchera maps for your viewing pleasure

[Vol4Life]

4 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Probably could double those totals.


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Thank you!!

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC was a pretty significant ice storm for much of the state.  

[Wurbus]

CMC is showing about .5" of ice for most of East TN as Carver mentioned

[Matthew70]

Give me cold rain over any ice. 

[Matthew70]

With the temps & more chances of frozen precip to follow.  What a mess that would be.  Actually that would be very dangerous for so many. 

[Daniel Boone]

This is looking like an Ozarks Special aa far as major clean pass Snowstorm. Hello Springfield Mo and Mountain home Arkansas. Those places get some real whopper's sometimes. As far as our area, probably a sloppy mess with northern Areas still a decent amount of Snow and Ice. Kentucky should be a big winner as may be similar to January '94 setup.Snow wise as well. As we all know, this one's far from being clear-cut yet. 

    Hopefully, we get a bit south and eastward with the heavy snow axis akin to the latest GFS but , further East. The Great Valley is always in danger of a warm nose, downsloping etc., regardless of a better Track as being between the Cumberlands and Smokies iverall really hurts the area irt Snow, as we all know.

   

[John1122]

UKIE is wound up and continues its severe weather look. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

UKIE is wound up and continues its severe weather look. 

 

I hope/ pray it's wrong. What a slap if right. If right, probably a Ohio Valley/Midwest Blizzard.

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I hope/ pray it's wrong. What a slap if right. If right, probably a Ohio Valley/Midwest Blizzard.

It's done this in error before. But as always, our region is in the battle ground between 60 and a squall line or 30 and a winter storm. 

[BNAwx]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I hope/ pray it's wrong. What a slap if right. If right, probably an Ohio Valley/Midwest Blizzard.

I’d hate for a miss to the north, but snow cover to the north and west of us might help with future systems if we can keep the favorable pattern in place.

[John1122]

Oddly, the GFS was the first to start the cutter parade. Let's see if it's first to the suppressed parade. 

It's wild to have a decent Pacific and the -NAO and still have a cutter. 

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

I’d hate for a miss to the north, but snow cover to the north and west of us might help with future systems if we can keep the favorable pattern in place.

True. The concern is there too that the first one dumps to our North while the other's dump's South. I've saw that disappointment a good number of times. One of the Reasons I'm rooting for this one. If we happen to luck out and get it, at least we'd gotten a good one bagged.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Oddly, the GFS was the first to start the cutter parade. Let's see if it's first to the suppressed parade. 

It's wild to have a decent Pacific and the -NAO and still have a cutter. 

Yeah, hopefully something akin to a March 9-10 1960 Track and profile will manifest. Now, that would be a true Winner . As you know, that's part dream but also some possibility with the Setup. 

     The UK has the System probably coming at worst timing as a little sooner, more cold in place or a little later and canadian high surpresses it. That's how it looks to me.

[John1122]

Through 72, the GFS and Euro are very similar at 500mb. 

[John1122]

Through 84 some differences showing up at 500, the gfs is more consolidated bringing the wave on shore out west. 

[John1122]

Euro has stronger heights out in front of the system vs the GFS. Won't be surprised if it cuts unless they weaken. 

[John1122]

The Euro moved south some but not enough, unfortunately. 

[John1122]

The GFS has a slightly better positioned -NAO, which allows the system to be suppressed just enough. 

 

Yesterday the Euro went from Central Kentucky into Northern West VA. Today it goes from SE KY and moves SE into NC. It's feeling the NAO more.  We will see if it's enough. 

[tnweathernut]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS has a slightly better positioned -NAO, which allows the system to be suppressed just enough. 

 

Yesterday the Euro went from Central Kentucky into Northern West VA. Today it goes from SE KY and moves SE into NC. It's feeling the NAO more.  We will see if it's enough. 

What would be painful would be for the NAO to not provide enough help for storm one and too much help, squashing storm number 2 ......leaving our area mostly cold and dry.  It's definitely on the list of possibilities, so something to watch for when it comes to "ways we can whiff" in the mid-south in what looks like a great pattern at 500mb....   That would probably leave us hoping for a system to attack the backside of the departing pattern, hoping there is enough residual cold for a winter system, while we wait to see if we can reload for a better opportunity.

[Scottie16]

Feels like I’m reading a NWS message. You guys usually are pretty exciting regardless on if the potential of bust is there.


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[Silas Lang]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Been busy at work so just now getting a chance to assess things. So far there is still significant spread with the handling of the 5H pattern across the North Atlantic with the extension hanging back into the Northeastern U.S. @CAPE pointed out earlier some of the appreciable differences upstairs with a touch more phasing of N/S energy extending back to Canada leading to a stronger axis of confluence and shearing of the primary 5H shortwave progression out of the Mississippi Valley. One positive take from the GFS was a better precip shield developing across the Mid-South, something that had been missing in previous runs. This makes sense considering the stronger closed 5H vorticity and subsequent 500mb LER jet dynamics accompanying the trough. There's likely to be shearing as a result of the cyclonic gyre over the North Atlantic, but we'll have to see if this is a case of Medium Range bias in over amplifying the 5H Relative Vorticity evolution as can be the case within these D4+ leads. I do feel the analysis of the eventual trough in the plains and Tennessee Valley will be solved a little faster given the time frame the energy reaches the CONUS and becomes a factor in cyclogenesis is <72 hrs in progression, so the fact that has trended favorably is a step in the right direction. 

Deterministic output has been shotgun spray when it comes to the final QPF within that D6-8 time frame as each global displays a different prog meaning there's very much variability in this pattern. These types of setups tend to lean further north due to the bias of over amplification of the downstream 5H evolution noted above, but that doesn't mean that will be the case this time. Ensembles have been pretty useful with regards to the anticipated QPF with the GFS boosting precip within the area over the past 4 runs (See @NorthArlington101 post above) and the other ensembles remains relatively steady with varying QPF magnitudes more noise within the mean. NBM maintains a general 2-4" across much of the sub-forum with the max situated over Central MD back west, a favored climo pattern for storms that run west to east in trajectory. 

I'm curious to look at the cluster analysis and see what differences within the ensemble members give us the best and worse case scenarios along with which cluster has the highest percentile of probable outcomes. Time will tell and until I see something more concrete in either a great or terrible scenario, I have no strong feelings on what has been shown on todays 12z suite. Just my $0.02

Post from Millvillewx in Mid Atlantic forum. Interesting tidbits pertaining to us. Seems to think GFS is correct in depicting early precip in our region. 

[Matthew70]

I don’t think we will know the answer till Thursday late or Friday.  The CMC is the middle ground which might end up being close to the final solution.  We have a chance of a state wide snow.  Plus possibly even more chances to follow.  We also have no idea how many clipper disturbances will swing thru from the NW flow.  At least we have something to track & look at.  

[Matthew70]

Also appears the Euro is back to its bias of holding energy back in the SW. 

[MillvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Post from Millvillewx in Mid Atlantic forum. Interesting tidbits pertaining to us. Seems to think GFS is correct in depicting early precip in our region. 

I'll provide a little more on my take for your general area. I do like the idea of a more robust QPF shield being depicted amongst the guidance considering the favorable 5H pattern. The ECMWF is more amplified thus bring warmer air into the boundary layer faster and giving the TN Valley area mostly rain with perhaps a touch of ice at the onset. The GFS is playing some catchup and is the weakest of the guidance with a stronger cold pattern anchored into the region and takes much longer to scour out. Canadian is in the middle with an ice to rain type scenario with areas north of I-40 possibly starting as snow before flipping to sleet/ZR. Still tricky to come up with a definitive solution at this point, but I do like the precip field being more broad and robust compared to the proverbial "weak sauce" that the GFS was depicting in prior runs. Hope you guys score down there! I have friends of mine that live in Glasgow, KY and they have an infant. It would be awesome for them to send my wife and I more pics of the little one in the snow 

[Matthew70]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll provide a little more on my take for your general area. I do like the idea of a more robust QPF shield being depicted amongst the guidance considering the favorable 5H pattern. The ECMWF is more amplified thus bring warmer air into the boundary layer faster and giving the TN Valley area mostly rain with perhaps a touch of ice at the onset. The GFS is playing some catchup and is the weakest of the guidance with a stronger cold pattern anchored into the region and takes much longer to scour out. Canadian is in the middle with an ice to rain type scenario with areas north of I-40 possibly starting as snow before flipping to sleet/ZR. Still tricky to come up with a definitive solution at this point, but I do like the precip field being more broad and robust compared to the proverbial "weak sauce" that the GFS was depicting in prior runs. Hope you guys score down there! I have friends of mine that live in Glasgow, KY and they have an infant. It would be awesome for them to send my wife and I more pics of the little one in the snow 

Thank you so much for your input & dropping in to our forum.  Feel free to drop in any time!  

[Carvers Gap]

We haven't just lost the deterministic Euro.  We have lost the EPS top to bottom.  It has thrown out some really strange runs of late(just every once in a while after being rock steady for more runs than I can count).  Temp wise, it has lost a good chunk of the cold as well - entire run.  I think what is going on right now is that modeling is struggling with very cold temps coming into NA along with a complex storm pattern.  Right now, I don't trust any of them.  However, the 12z GEFS and GEPS seem to be pretty steady without any breaks in continuity.  For now...for now...I ride with those two and toss the EPS.  Operational Euro is probably good through d6 or d7.  I would suspect ice to rain for Sunday....but I don't trust any model right now.  Ride with the ensembles until things settle down a bit.  We generally go through wild swings when cold air is in play.  Also, when do models lose storms?  Yep, bout right now.

[Silas Lang]

29 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll provide a little more on my take for your general area. I do like the idea of a more robust QPF shield being depicted amongst the guidance considering the favorable 5H pattern. The ECMWF is more amplified thus bring warmer air into the boundary layer faster and giving the TN Valley area mostly rain with perhaps a touch of ice at the onset. The GFS is playing some catchup and is the weakest of the guidance with a stronger cold pattern anchored into the region and takes much longer to scour out. Canadian is in the middle with an ice to rain type scenario with areas north of I-40 possibly starting as snow before flipping to sleet/ZR. Still tricky to come up with a definitive solution at this point, but I do like the precip field being more broad and robust compared to the proverbial "weak sauce" that the GFS was depicting in prior runs. Hope you guys score down there! I have friends of mine that live in Glasgow, KY and they have an infant. It would be awesome for them to send my wife and I more pics of the little one in the snow 

Thanks man! Appreciate the further insight. 

[Carvers Gap]

I would add that modeling that is digging into the southwest too much...beware.  I also think spacing between the Jan 6 system and the one in front of it are critical.  When the spacing is less, there is less ridge between then.  The smaller that ridge, the flatter the system.