Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z CMC was more of a transfer of energy from the TN Valley to the NC Piedmont.   Both the GFS and CMC get energy to the coast….I think that is the likely outcome however that ends up.  Slider or cutter or Miller A(now part of the equation).  Ice looks probable. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 0z CMC was more of a transfer of energy from the TN Valley to the NC Piedmont.   Both the GFS and CMC get energy to the coast….I think that is the likely outcome however that ends up.  Slider or cutter or Miller A(now part of the equation).  Ice looks probable. 

That's all we don't need. Hopefully, enough cold press will allow for snow. Still plenty time to go to the earlier Icon Solution. Although, I must say it's worrisome to see it and the CMC go to the cutter ice possibility. 

[John1122]

UKIE is a wound tight super cutter. 

Everyone has headed to opposite camps this evening. The UKIE did that last January too, for a good while. It kept insisting all of East Tennessee would be in the 50s and raining. It finally caught once it got under 84 hours. 

[Matthew70]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

UKIE is a wound tight super cutter. 

Everyone has headed to opposite camps this evening. The UKIE did that last January too, for a good while. It kept insisting all of East Tennessee would be in the 50s and raining. It finally caught once it got under 84 hours. 

I read on another group the UKIE says severe wx for TN lol. That’s polar opposite of what it was saying. 

[jaxjagman]

Right now to me the GFS is the outlier,most of all the models seem to take the LP through Tn,GFS is suppressed down south,still anyone could be right,going through Tn would bring with it the warm nose,then you could only hope for wrap around

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z GFS is a front end ice thump now for Jan 6, but the second system (Jan 9 - 11) is in the perfect place for a NW trend. 0z Euro looks fairly similar at the surface for the Jan 9 - 11 event. 

Looks like the 6z Euro is a little south for Jan 6, but more wound up so it gets more warm air in. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

That's certainly a snow mean for NE TN and SW VA and W NC lol:

[tnweathernut]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

That's certainly a snow mean for NE TN and SW VA and W NC lol:

It’s a testament to the pattern we are entering.  Never a sure thing in the mid south for snow, but a mean that covers the entire state of TN with 2” is a rarity.

[Carvers Gap]

Just some morning thoughts....

1.  Unless modeling comes back around today or tomorrow(still 5 days out), I think the weekend system is a sloppy mess or just rain.  The problem with the eastern valley is if cold gets trapped.  I won't even begin to touch the ice situation potential until much closer to the event.  MRX said as much this morning, i.e. very tough forecast.  Significant snowfall looks increasingly unlikely.

2.  Temperature moderation on modeling, but still very cold.  Honestly, thankfully we are seeing some temperature moderation on modeling.  If we want snow, the southern extent of the cold has to lessen.  And I honestly don't like crazy cold wind chills.

3.  We may whiff on this weekend's system, but as Holston noted, there are opportunities after this one.   

4.  Cold is likely going to come in 4+ waves.  These resupplies will likely bring snow with them, or connect with moisture from the GOM.  This colder pattern will slowly burn itself out beginning maybe around Jan 20th.  

5.  There is always a chance this is cold and dry due to the trough axis being a bit too far to the east.  That said, I do think we score on northwest flow events at the very least.  

6.  When the NE TN/SW VA/ SE KY snow mean is juicy, that is usually a good thing for everybody else.  The GEPS and GEFS look really good.  The EPS is less, but respectable.  

7.  I think North Carolina will break their snow drought.  

8.  The colder analog package for January likely runs up the score through Jan 20th.  Then the warm analogs may well try to pull back some ground.  BN for the month seems likely though.  

9.  February?  I think it goes warm but w/ 2-3 pushes of cold air.  I think March goes cold.  The interesting thing about big cold snaps is that sometimes we break for spring right after.  So, a warm March wouldn't surprise me either.

10.  Remember that ensembles are probably better when outside of d6 or d7 - reminder goes for me as well!!!!

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I read on another group the UKIE says severe wx for TN lol. That’s polar opposite of what it was saying. 

If it cuts enough, severe is on the table.  For now, I think the front end thump seems more likely, but the UK solution can't be ruled out.

[Carvers Gap]

I will probably keep tracking this weekend's system while knowing that rain is the more likely solution than not(for the majority of the event...and front end thump implied).  That said, the 6z EPS is colder while the 6z GEFS is warmer(still ice).   As MRX noted, much of this uncertainty will get cleared up with time on wx modeling.  I think the potential for ice is in the eastern valley and along the TN/KY line.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

That's certainly a snow mean for NE TN and SW VA and W NC lol:

Good news for the longer term.  Really, I am pulling for Chattanooga to get a score.  This type of cold could bring chances for that area.

[matt9697]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I will probably keep tracking this weekend's system while knowing that rain is the more likely solution than not(for the majority of the event...and front end thump implied).  That said, the 6z EPS is colder while the 6z GEFS is warmer(still ice).   As MRX noted, much of this uncertainty will get cleared up with time on wx modeling.  I think the potential for ice is in the eastern valley and along the TN/KY line.

Yes, I have seen this type of setup cause bad icing just a few miles north of me, though you were likely speaking of TN/KY line in East TN 

[Carvers Gap]

21 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Yes, I have seen this type of setup cause bad icing just a few miles north of me, though you were likely speaking of TN/KY line in East TN 

I think you all know your microclimates better than I do.  The Euro practically has no icing at all or frozen precip south of the TN/KY border.  When I say that, that is with respect to lower elevations.  The Plateau and the Smokies would probably be a different forecast.   The GFS and CMC still have some ice...GFS particularly.  Trends overnight and at 6z are more toward rain.

[jaxjagman]

1985,TOP ANALOG,dont mean it will be that way today,tomorrow ,next day,just for fun went back to look.

We didnt really have much of a thaw until the 3rd week of Feb,some moderation yes.I got to run so have to make this fast so put some charts up

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS is rolling.  Flow is flatter.  Sorry coming onshore at 60 is slightly further north.  12z ICON was a textbook cutter.

[Carvers Gap]

at 111, significantly less ridging is in front.  1043 high is out front and over the top.  Flow is flatter.  This might be different than 6z.

[Carvers Gap]

At 123 a winter storm is breaking out across W TN...mostly snow.

[Carvers Gap]

At 129, system is slowing as it is having trouble cutting into the hp just to its north.

[Carvers Gap]

at 135, this is a pretty significant winter storm for W TN as the slp is crawling.

[Carvers Gap]

Just checking to make sure this is indeed the right day of this model run...major winter storm for the TN Valley at 138 and 141.

[Carvers Gap]

144, and heavy snow and ice are breaking out across the eastern sections of the forum.

[Carvers Gap]

at 147, they system is stalled over central Alabama with snow breaking out into the Carolinas.

[Carvers Gap]

So this was a southern slider.  To recap, the system came in slightly north of where it did on the West Coast at 6z.  The system in front held back a bit, and didn't allow heights to pump in front of the Jan 6 system.  A big 1040 sat right on top and pushed it south.  Plausible.  But is it right?  In the words of George Washington on SNL, "Nobody knows."

[Carvers Gap]

The Kuchera clown map is gonna look ridiculous.

[Scottie16]

The Kuchera clown map is gonna look ridiculous.

Very ridiculous. Holy cow.


.

[Carvers Gap]

Portions of W TN got 1.25" of ice AND 17" of snow.  

[Carvers Gap]

That was a significant ice storm followed by heavy snow or maybe the reverse is true....it got pretty convoluted.

[Vol4Life]

Can someone post the Kuchera?  I don’t have access currently.

[Scottie16]

Probably could double those totals.


.