Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Honestly, at this rate it could trend south of us like the CMC.  That is an ice storm as is for much of I40 across the state of TN.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS has ice into the mid-South at 147.

[1234snow]

I thought that 2nd wave was going to phase into a bomb but just missed.

[Carvers Gap]

The system on the 6th....the GEFS has several members well south of the TN/AL line.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GEFS has ice into the mid-South at 147.

That's almost a full day ahead of the OP

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS is a winter storm for Tennessee as well.

[Scottie16]

The 18z GEFS is a winter storm for Tennessee as well.

Setting up nicely for ETN iyam.


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[John1122]

Trying to remember for sure, but I'm pretty positive last year the ICON locked into the January winter storm and it was the only model that didn't waiver or go off the rails at one time or another from 180 to storm day. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

Trying to remember for sure, but I'm pretty positive last year the ICON locked into the January winter storm and it was the only model that didn't waiver or go off the rails at one time or another from 180 to storm day. 

I’m sure that you’re right but I also remember the gfs sniffing it out at times really early.


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[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS mean will join the 12z CMC mean.  Happy Hour has been good lately.

[John1122]

Looking back at last January, the GFS was all over the place and lost the storm day 7 to 5. The Euro was a wound up cutter that had us in the 50s with rain, then it went to Cuba with the storm. It didn't get a clue until 72 hours out. The UKIE was too wound up. The Canadian was too wound up. The ICON had the right general idea by 144 hrs out and held steady until the event. 

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Looking back at last January, the GFS was all over the place and lost the storm day 7 to 5. The Euro was a wound up cutter that had us in the 50s with rain, then it went to Cuba with the storm. It didn't get a clue until 72 hours out. The UKIE was too wound up. The Canadian was too wound up. The ICON had the right general idea by 144 hrs out and held steady until the event. 

Yeah, good insight.  I think with this much cold and a potential winter storm on the tracks....they are all over the place.  

[Carvers Gap]

 

[Carvers Gap]

First (potential ice) system is further south, but not ice yet on the AIFS.  Second system is below.

[Carvers Gap]

Re the 18z Euro AIFS....The first system is slower and flatter with no cutter that I can see....just a warm nose.  Main precip line which stretched across KY at 12z is now over Tenn on this run.

[Carvers Gap]

Where we are tonight....Cold (maybe extreme) is still on the table.  Winter wx chances are possible.  The worst of this appears to have a duration of about 7 days...8th - 15th.   All of that could change as some of these dates are still in the d10-15 window.  We knew at some point that we might be tracking another great winter pattern.  Is this the next great pattern that people will talk about for decades?  We will know soon enough.  If it doesn't work out, we know the drill.  LOL.  But at some point, we are going to see another great pattern either way.....I think.

[John1122]

Webb, earlier, posted the 500mb map from next week and from Jan 1977 and they were remarkably similar.  It started earlier, with a nice snow event in late December for many folks so '77 started with snow on the ground. 

Jan 77 was below normal on precip, really, even much below normal with about 50 percent of normal precip. But almost all of what fell, came as frozen precip because it was so cold. 

Knoxville recorded snow accumulation of at least a dusting on 13 days in Jan 1977, with 5 events between 1 and 4 inches at Mcghee Tys. The Knoxville Experimental station, which is north of the airport  had 16 days of snowfall.  

Chattanooga had 12 days with at least a dusting and 3 1 to 3 inch events. 

Tri had snow of at least a dusting on 19 days. Including 13 of 14 days in a row. Their biggest event was 5.7 inches over three days. 

Keep in mind, East Tennessee was less snowy than the Plateau/mid-state that winter. The Northern Plateau had 20+ inches. Jamestown had at least 2 inches of snow on the ground all but two days of the month. Those two that didn't had 1 inch. Jamestown did that with 3 inches of qpf, vs an over 5 inch normal. 

Nashville had 11 days of accumulation that added up to almost 20 inches. 

Memphis had 10 days of at least a dusting of snow, Jackson 14 days. 

Every area of the state at a snow depth of at least 2 inches at one point during the month. Most areas had at least two events of greater than 3 inches. If you count the end of December, most areas had three. 

I remember here, it snowed seemingly every day, about 1/2 to 1 inch, for weeks on end. School was out day after day. 

The bigger events happened early month before the super deep freeze hit with -10s being widespread, and after it let up as the Arctic air retreated. That one was a widespread 4-6 inch event January 23rd-25th. 

 

 

 

 

[Nash_LSU]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Keep in mind, East Tennessee was less snowy than the Plateau/mid-state that winter. The Northern Plateau had 20+ inches. Jamestown had at least 2 inches of snow on the ground all but two days of the month. Those two that didn't had 1 inch. Jamestown did that with 3 inches of qpf, vs an over 5 inch normal. 

 

 

 

My parents were at Tech that winter and they still talk about that winter to this day.

[Reb]

ICON cutting north

[John1122]

ICON joined the front end ice storm/cutter camp. Hate to lose the better solution it was showing, especially for a massive I-40 ice storm. 

[John1122]

I get right at .5 precip with a temp of 29 on the ICON.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS, bout to unwrap this run....1041 hp sitting right over the top at 129.

[Carvers Gap]

at 150, looks formidable.

[Carvers Gap]

at 153, winter storm for middle and west Tn underway...

[Reb]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS, bout to unwrap this run....1041 hp sitting right over the top at 129.

Run by run it’s slowing everything down

[Carvers Gap]

Kind of a wonky run as convection cuts off the feed northward....just slides across the GOM.  Risk is suppression with this run.In reality, that run would be nice I think.

[Carvers Gap]

The cutter that once went to western MI several runs ago is sliding over Tallahassee, Florida.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the 0z CMC is ice.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Reb said:

Run by run it’s slowing everything down

I wonder if that is allowing HP to force the storm south and keep it colder.  Before, the storm was out ahead of it.  

[Carvers Gap]

0z CMC is ice and then cuts.  ICOn and CMC are now cutters.  GFS is now a suppressed slider.  Whiplash!