Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

There is a trend on the GFS and CMC of dropping the energy further southwest into the California coast. I’m not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing.

There used to be an old saying that the lower the latitude on the California coast...the better for us.  I certainly pumps the ridge out fronting the plains, but it deepens the trough over the EC.  That made it tough for the cold air to get out of the way.  This is kind of a pay me now or pay me later pattern.  The GFS is multiple events - too many to list in a post.  Right now, all of the 12z model suite (GFS, UK, ICOn, CMC) have significant frozen precip with the first system, and that doesn't even count the rest.  

If you get a chance to read Millwx's post in the MA, go find it and read it.  He is a met, and talks about this set-up and looks at its potential.  Really good read.

[Carvers Gap]

My money is still on the GFS coming south and east.

[Carvers Gap]

 

Get to the Millwx post...

[Carvers Gap]

Just tagging onto the Mill's post....for those of us who really enjoy winter weather, this is the kind of pattern we want to track.  Sure, it could turn up 0s, but more often than not....we are going to have multiple events(maybe just minor) to track.  The duration of the cold is of great interest right now.  JB thinks the duration is shorter due to warming of Europe.  However, the European teleconnection of late has been pretty lousy(meaning recent winters of cold in Europe and warm in the East).  The GEFS ext last night and the Euro ext both kind of slide the trough into the Mountain West but the SER really struggles to stay in place later this month - surprisingly.  Anyway, enjoy the pattern.  Winter is on our doorstep.  Be sure to unhook those hoses, and cover those outside faucets.  

[Carvers Gap]

Left is the new 12z GEFS.  Right is the 6z GEFS.  Just look at the blue isotherms, and you can see the new ensemble run is flatter.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Temps on the GEFS are about 5 degrees colder for the Jan 6 event.  Trend is for lower heights over the TN valley as well.  All of that compared to 6z.  That means the GFS and its ensemble flattened the system out.  I would guess the CMC is going to win this battle.  The Icon might score the coup.  Let's see if the Euro has any positive trends.

[Reb]

Have a feeling euro is fixing puke out something massive

[Holston_River_Rambler]

13 minutes ago, Reb said:

Have a feeling euro is fixing puke out something massive

I hope so, seems like it is running a little slow today on weatherbell. 

Here is the jan 6 system, but that's as far out as it is yet. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

27 minutes ago, Reb said:

Have a feeling euro is fixing puke out something massive

The Euro was pretty darn close to something big

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

I don't think the EPS supports the operational.......further south and much colder.

[Carvers Gap]

EPS left.  Euro right.  Both are 12z.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I gotta be honest, the EPS sure looks a lot like the ICON and CMC.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the comparison 12z vs 0z EPS.  Notice how much colder.

[Carvers Gap]

This is starting to show back up.  Real feel.

[Carvers Gap]

If we get any snow or ice on the ground, we may make a run at some lows I thought would never be approached again in my lifetime.

[Carvers Gap]

Somebody check this.  Does the 12z GEFS have us(TRI and many other stations) below freezing from Jan 7-14???

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Somebody check this.  Does the 12z GEFS have us(TRI and many other stations) below freezing from Jan 7-14???

Yes that is correct, from 6z Tuesday until 12z Wednesday the following week is below freezing the entire time.  With wind chills included you guys would be looking at some negative temps if that were to verify.  

[jaxjagman]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_North_American_cold_wave

[Scottie16]

This is starting to show back up.  Real feel.

I was always told that if the cold gets that far south (Jet stream reaching to the gulf coast)that a blizzard would occur across all southern regions?


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[Scottie16]

Also it seems like we’ve had 3 consecutive January’s with recording setting cold temperatures if I’m not mistaken? Each year we have increasing snow as well. Is the January 6th system setup similar to the 8-12in snow storm from last year?


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[Daniel Boone]

18 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

I was always told that if the cold gets that far south (Jet stream reaching to the gulf coast)that a blizzard would occur across all southern regions?


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It can help create cyclogenesis in the Gulf or along the frontal boundary. 

[Carvers Gap]

29 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

I was always told that if the cold gets that far south (Jet stream reaching to the gulf coast)that a blizzard would occur across all southern regions?


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Possible or it could just snow in New Orleans, Charleston, Savannah, or….Tampa/Orlando.  I don’t think any of those places are exempt at this range.  

[Matthew70]

25 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Also it seems like we’ve had 3 consecutive January’s with recording setting cold temperatures if I’m not mistaken? Each year we have increasing snow as well. Is the January 6th system setup similar to the 8-12in snow storm from last year?


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Yes this will be the 3rd straight winter of very cold temps.  The past 2 occurred at Christmas in 2022, first week of January 2023.  Landscaping such as hollies took a beating during the 2022.  Mostly because it was a flash freeze that killed them & a lot of other bushes & trees. Some are just now recovering.  Then last winter it killed more.  This cold spell is shaping up to be worse than last winters.  Possibly worse than the 2022 winter. This time the duration appears to be much longer.  Also expect potholes to start appearing again.  Then no doubt water main breaks will occur I’m sure.  Many of the cities water lines is outdated. Will there be rolling blackouts?  That’s very possible.  If TX gets cold I’d hate to live there.  

[Carvers Gap]

I am not where I can post images right now, but the CPC hazards map is a Christmas tree.

[Save the itchy algae!]

I am not where I can post images right now, but the CPC hazards map is a Christmas tree.

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[Save the itchy algae!]

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Sorry I don’t know how to edit my posts yet on Tapatalk (hate it) but I’m including the link to the discussion. It’s a fantastic read but it’s too long to copy

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php


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[Scottie16]

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[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS is much further south this run w/ frozen precip encompassing most of the state on this run.  Icy.

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS is much further south this run w/ frozen precip encompassing most of the state on this run.  Icy.

18z is a full 10 degrees colder from southern Indiana to northern Alabama.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Shortwave kicks out of the southwest for the 1/9 - 11 storm potential window a little quicker too. Still a swing and a miss for that one for TN, but closer than 12z.