Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[John1122]

ICON. Potentially devastating with such a cold outbreak following the ice/snow. 

 

 

[John1122]

Still snowing at the end of the run as noted at 180 above. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

19 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Still snowing at the end of the run as noted at 180 above. 

 

Now that looks more like it. 

[Matthew70]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Now that looks more like it. 

Hopefully that is not an ice storm south of I40.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Matthew70 said:

Hopefully that is not an ice storm south of I40.

Looks like it might be or mix. 

[John1122]

GFS continues to live on cutter island. Holds much more back over the SW again, vs that wintery ICON run. We'll see if the Canadian joins it shortly. 

[John1122]

17 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Hopefully that is not an ice storm south of I40.

Unfortunately, it is. 850s are around 35 and the surface is 30/31 in the red areas. 

[John1122]

The Canadian is probably going to be a winter storm solution. It's slower than the ICON and way slower than the GFS here. 

[John1122]

The Canadian just never gets moisture north of 40, but south of 40 does well. 

[Daniel Boone]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GFS continues to live on cutter island. Holds much more back over the SW again, vs that wintery ICON run. We'll see if the Canadian joins it shortly. 

It has literally replaced the Euro in holding energy back in the SW.. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian just never gets moisture north of 40, but south of 40 does well. 

Wow. Canadian a deep south one, Icon on the Money for us, Gfs freaking far NW Cutter. 

[John1122]

Spot the difference between the 0z GFS cutter, vs the 0z ICON, 0z UKMet, 12z Euro, 0z GEFS as the system approaches. 

GFS

ICON

 

UKMet

12z Euro from earlier today.

00z GEFS

 

[John1122]

The Euro moves to the GFS camp. A ridge pops ahead of the system like on the GFS and the storm cuts across Tennessee and into Ohio. 

Still a lot of runs to go, but cutters are the default for us, unfortunately. Hopefully it can trend back our way. 

[John1122]

6z remains a cutter, then it clippers it's way to decent totals, one of which blossoms into a massive Nor'Easter. 

Our whole forum area gets 2-6 inches over days 8-12ish. As always, like as not a complete fantasy. But what we used to see with true Alberta clippers. 

[John1122]

The GFS ends with another 2-4 inch event over parts of our region and possibly another gulf storm that would actually see us getting precip but imo the GFS does what it often does and undermodels the northern/western edge of the precip shield and only areas east of 75 are snowing. Granted it's at hour 384 so salt planets with any of it. 

I ended up with right at 12 inches of snow spread out 2 to 4 inches at a time over a week or so. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

As John said, like as not a complete fantasy, but that 6z run of the GFS has prompted me to find this old gif:

 

[Wurbus]

ICON blankets the whole state on the 1st system around the 6th. We'll see if GFS is still cutter city here shortly.

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS is coming onto the coast further south with the energy...maybe a significant change?  Let's see how different it gets downstream...either going to cut really sharp or be flat????

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty significant ice storm on the 12z GFS.  0.72 of ice in @Daniel Boonecountry.

[Carvers Gap]

Time of day appears to make a significant difference in each run.  This hit E TN at night....would be a mess if it verifies.

[Carvers Gap]

One would think the 12z CMC is about to do the same w/ a 1040 hp sitting over the top of that in the southern Prairies of Canada.

[AMZ8990]

I think I would toss this run of the GFS

[John1122]

I could do without 1/2+ inch of ice before cold hits. 

[John1122]

The UKIE just smokes the I-40 corridor. 

[Wurbus]

So we basically have CMC/UKIE vs GFS/GEFS for the system around the 6th?

[John1122]

Just now, Wurbus said:

So we basically have CMC/UKIE vs GFS/GEFS for the system around the 6th?

CMC/UKIE/ICON vs the GFS/Euro currently. 

It used to be that Euro runs were similar to the UKIE. We'll see how far apart they are soon.

[1234snow]

There is a trend on the GFS and CMC of dropping the energy further southwest into the California coast. I’m not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing.

[John1122]

The GFS has another 300+ event for the deep south/Eastern forum. 

[John1122]

And then another event on the heels of that one. 

[John1122]

And possibly another system on the heels of that one. Very active northern stream.