Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[Daniel Boone]

31 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The wcs (worst case scenario) is 2017-18.

28-21

34-22

27-10

35-11

38-15

32-13

22-3

19-0

25- -1

31-12

18-4

20- -1

25- -2

31-5

33-23 (dusting of snow that changed to rain at 33 with .2 precip)

That was a 15 day stretch of temps here from Dec 26th 2017 to January 9th 2018. If I recall correctly, the I-20 corridor, especially in Louisiana and Texas, got multiple big snow events. Ice was 6 inches thick on creeks here with a dusting of snow to show for it.

Yeah, absolutely discusting for us Snow fans. Lol.  Hopefully, not the case this time. 

[John1122]

The models aren't nearly as cold as they were prior. The GFS because no snow cover. The Euro because the first storm doesn't cut and drag the PV down.  It's still very cold, but 5 to -2 is a lot warmer than those -10 to -20s that some runs have spit out.

[Carvers Gap]

The three global ensembles look really good this afternoon - widespread snow.  Euro/CMC look the best which is good since they have been leading the way.  The GEFS isn't bad.

[beavis1729]

38 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The models aren't nearly as cold as they were prior. The GFS because no snow cover. The Euro because the first storm doesn't cut and drag the PV down.  It's still very cold, but 5 to -2 is a lot warmer than those -10 to -20s that some runs have spit out.

Spot on - you took the words right out of my mouth. 

Hopefully the 12z op Euro is an outlier, and the 12z EPS isn't trending this way.

[John1122]

Snow total proabilities, the entire forum area has a > 50 percent chance of 1-2 inches of snow per the EPS, with the chances climbing in the northern half of Tennessee. The chance from Clarksville east across all but the southern border counties in Tennessee is greater than 70. Greater than 80 on the Plateau and NE Tn, greater  than 90 in SE Ky/SWVa. The entire forum area has a greater than 20 percent chance of 3 to 5 inches of snow.  With the chance at > 40 percent for most of the mid-state and points east. > 50 percent on the Plateau and NE Tn. > 60 percent in areas above around 2000 feet it looks like. The entire forum area has a > than 10 percent chance at 6+ inches of snow. >20 percent from the mid-state east. With higher probs in the mountains.

The EPS mean total is 2.6 near Memphis, 2.5-3 across Northern Miss/Alabama/Georgia, rising as you go North and East. 3.4 mean for Nashville,  3.3 for Chattanooga, mid 3s for Knox. 4+ Plateau and 6+ mountain tops.

[John1122]

The MJO is probably the best we've ever seen it, forecast wise. There are almost no plots that have it on the right side and the left is covered. 

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS is a bit flatter this run.  Let's see if it cuts.

[Carvers Gap]

Same trend as the last several systems.  Too amped, and then slides south and east with each run.  Still not there yet, but close.  The 12z Euro AIFS looked a lot like this.  The GFS dug less into the Four Corners this run.

[John1122]

It moved 200 miles SE that run. But still has energy over Nevada diving into Arizona that isn't there on the Canadian/Euro. 

[tnweathernut]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Same trend as the last several systems.  Too amped, and then slides south and east with each run.  Still not there yet, but close.  The 12z Euro AIFS looked a lot like this.  The GFS dug less into the Four Corners this run.

Solid step toward other modeling.  There were favorable trends west and east at 500 vs 12z

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

Solid step toward other modeling.  There were favorable trends west and east at 500 vs 12z

Moving at tortoise speed.  The 12z EURO AIFS didn't look too dissimilar at the surface.  Light years difference between the two at 500.

Bad ice storm for I-40 in TN and NC per that run.

[John1122]

Trying to work something up in the gulf along the end of the front from the cutter. 

[Carvers Gap]

Starting to look like a multi-day overrunning event per this run.  And the other models were flirting with it at 12z, especially ensembles.

[John1122]

This may look like a version of the Euro from last night, but a little further East. 

[Carvers Gap]

Looks a lot like the 12z Euro AI run with the first and second systems.

[John1122]

Much much much weaker than the Euro version last night, which kept the precipitation shield light and small. 

[jaxjagman]

GFS dont look as cold,one reason should be where the blocking is around Greenland,it dont show it into the Hudson this go around run

[Carvers Gap]

As today has progressed, I think the general idea seems to be for two systems.  That is starting to make more sense given the axis of the cold air, the push from those cold highs, and likely multiple waves.  Each wave pushed the boundary to the southeast.  That isn't a bad setup for whoever is on the northwest side of that.  Significant CAD for NC looks likely - been a while since we have talked about that.  Ice, then snow, then severe cold....not great.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

GFS dont look as cold,one reason should be where the blocking is around Greenland,it dont show it into the Hudson the go around run

I also think it has finally weakened that cutter so that it doesn't pull down the mother load all at once.....

[Carvers Gap]

This run make much more sense than the past several for the GFS.  The good thing is the base of the trough is a bit flatter, and not in Cuba.

[Carvers Gap]

It still has 45 degree departures on this run.  Getting colder with each passing frame.

[jaxjagman]

17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I also think it has finally weakened that cutter so that it doesn't pull down the mother load all at once.....

I'm just saying when you see the Rex block into the Hudson this pulls the trough axis further west,when its more east of Greenland or for that matter even over Greenland the trough axis is further east,,i shouldnt have said its not as cold,its still cold,thats what i'm seeing

[Carvers Gap]

Nice run of the 18z GFS.  Flatter and lots of energy rotating through.  

[tnweathernut]

17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nice run of the 18z GFS.  Flatter and lots of energy rotating through.  

Yeah, probably going to make us keep our heads on a swivel.  Just put the right “big feature” things in the right places and let’s play ball.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I also think it has finally weakened that cutter so that it doesn't pull down the mother load all at once.....

Need to unload those big Snows over Missouri over our Area.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Impressive that there is some thunder with what is rolling through the TN Valley and Kentucky right now. 

 

 

[matt9697]

Now it is storming again here; first time I can ever recall where it has stormed three consecutive days in December. Not sure if that means anything or not but it is odd.

[Carvers Gap]

57 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Need to unload those big Snows over Missouri over our Area.

Did u see the 18z Euro at 144?  Looked south of 12z on that run....

[fountainguy97]

When was the last time you saw an ensemble run like this? Something big is brewing...

 

[John1122]

Spire Model