Winter 2024/2025 January Thread

[John1122]

Euro with shades of Feb 1996. 

[John1122]

I don't even know what folks in the deep south would do. That would be a record for many of them. 1993 levels. 

 

[John1122]

Temps in the teens while this is falling in Tennessee. 

[Reb]

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC and Euro both have decent solutions for portions of our forum area. The 6z GFS appears to be pushing the front too far to the south when compared to its ensemble and when compared to other global models.  Suppression js definitely a significant risk here, but snowstorms in Tallahassee are unlikely but not out of the realm of extreme possibility - for now, I toss those runs. I haven’t looked at 500, but I wonder how much different it looks in the western US.
 

The 12z Euro looked too wound up   The GFS runs which slide across and make a slight NE turn make a lot of sense - 1996 style.  The 0z GFS made more sense.  The CMC also looks realistic.

Potwntial for a big EC storm is growing.  Cold is still on modeling - severe on many runs.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS is digging too far into the southwest IMHO.  That is likely an error.  Every time it does that, the system we are watching...cuts.  Both the CMC and Euro don't dig that wave into the southwest as much which results in a flatter solution.  That also makes me think the flatter solutions are more likely - i.e. overrunning somewhere over our forum area similar to 96, but obviously not exactly the same.  The 0z GFS doesn't dig into the southwest as much.  Trends in the west at 500 will tell us the story.  For now, the GFS looks in error at 6z yet again(but sometimes it is right....)

[*Flash*]

11 hours ago, John1122 said:

I don't even know what folks in the deep south would do. That would be a record for many of them. 1993 levels. 

 

 

Shades of 2013-14 for portions of middle TN on that run. Snowdome 2.0...especially for NW middle TN.  Hopefully, the suppression won't be THAT strong but like Carver said, the fact it's possible is proof of the potential in play. 

[Nash_LSU]

40 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Ugh! Shades of 2013-14 for portions of middle TN. Snowdome 2.0.

I'll take my chances on the NW side of a snow map any day of the week.

[matt9697]

At this range, no model is going to be correct, especially the GFS, I would expect wide swings in solutions for the next week and change really 

[John1122]

GFS cuts again. It's swinging wildly still and apparently that's just how it's gonna roll this winter. It's solutions are extreme in both directions. 30 degree temp differences run to run, 12+ inches of snow vs bare ground, run to run.  The GEFS is holding a pretty steady snow mean.  It's gonna be a long next few days until the models actually lock into something.  At this point I actually expect a cutter, because they are 100 times more likely than historic snow events. Still, I'll hope for a better solution for us.

[John1122]

The Canadian is a solid slider, nothing epic of the 12+ variety here, but very solid for at least the mid-state, the upper deep south over to eastern areas and the Carolinas.

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian is a solid slider, nothing epic of the 12+ variety here, but very solid for at least the mid-state, the upper deep south over to eastern areas and the Carolinas.

Even if we get small amounts at a time.  It’s going to be around for awhile with the temps that are coming.  We know cold is coming.  We know clippers will also be sliding thru.  Fun times ahead! 

[John1122]

Late run, the GFS is still suppressed. But it's also sending a 1050 high down which is causing the suppression. Those virtually never verify as strong as the GFS shows them.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

What's wild to me is that there is a way for each storm to hit us, or none. 

[Carvers Gap]

I still think the 12z GFS is off its rocker.  It is the only model sending the winter storm energy into the Four Corners.  I don't think it has been right when it has done this all season.  The CMC is a much more reasonable solution.  The GFS has no support for that solution from other global models at this point.

[Carvers Gap]

I really encourage you all (and I learned this from @tnweathernut) to look at runs at 500 in addition to the surface.  What the GFS is doing at 500 is much different.  

[tnweathernut]

At the end of the day, we will likely need to see the whites of the eyes of storm one before we know what real chances we may or may not have with the main event.  Good pattern coming up, many ways to miss, but a really decent chance to score somewhere along the way. Many years we won’t even have the potential currently showing.  For now just sit back and enjoy the occasional DGEX like OP run here and there being spit out.

[tnweathernut]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I really encourage you all (and I learned this from @tnweathernut) to look at runs at 500 in addition to the surface.  What the GFS is doing at 500 is much different.  

A lot of times I won’t even pay much attention to the surface this far out, although I do like to see the monster snow maps.  The kid inside never leaves.

[Matthew70]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I still think the 12z GFS is off its rocker.  It is the only model sending the winter storm energy into the Four Corners.  I don't think it has been right when it has done this all season.  The CMC is a much more reasonable solution.  The GFS has no support for that solution from other global models at this point.

If I remember correctly.  The old Euro had that bias of holding back energy also. 

[John1122]

The GFS does indeed bury energy in Arizona, which doesn't happen on the 0z Euro or 12z Canadian.

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

If I remember correctly.  The old Euro had that bias of holding back energy also. 

It did.  I have noticed that the GFS has had some great solutions which other modeling didn't have recently.  Over time, the solution would trend southeast (over the East).  I wondered why that was happening so often.  Like the CMC and Euro wouldn't even have the system or the system would be across the GOM while the GFS had it in Indiana.  If memory serves me correctly, I checked, and noticed the GFS spinning things up over the Southwest.  That caused everything to cut.  Now, as John notes, cutters are always on the table, and I 100% agree that is on the table.  I just want to see the GFS get some support or drop the solution if it is wrong.  The GFS was the last on board for the upcoming cold.  It originally had the East roasting during the first week of January - full on torch.  

[Carvers Gap]

I do look over my should just a bit with the GFS, because I generally go with the lowest denominator in terms of weather.  LOL.  In other words, the worst/warmest solution is probably right.  The GFS has an uncanny ability to see things other models cannot, and I like it because it kind of gets out of the box.  Where it really missed(as noted in my last post) is it missed the cold front during the first week of January.    

That said, if it is right...I think it actually helps us down the line.  It has been a bit colder than other models.  I think some of those system along the GOM will trend northward.  That suppressed look usually is a good thing for SE peeps in Chattanooga.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro is more along the lines of my thinking.  That is what happens when the energy is not held in the West....we get a flatter wave.  Then, boom.

[John1122]

The wcs (worst case scenario) is 2017-18.

28-21

34-22

27-10

35-11

38-15

32-13

22-3

19-0

25- -1

31-12

18-4

20- -1

25- -2

31-5

33-23 (dusting of snow that changed to rain at 33 with .2 precip)

That was a 15 day stretch of temps here from Dec 26th 2017 to January 9th 2018. If I recall correctly, the I-20 corridor, especially in Louisiana and Texas, got multiple big snow events. Ice was 6 inches thick on creeks here with a dusting of snow to show for it.

[Carvers Gap]

Euro may have a second system.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The wcs (worst case scenario) is 2017-18.

28-21

34-22

27-10

35-11

38-15

32-13

22-3

19-0

25- -1

31-12

18-4

20- -1

25- -2

31-5

33-23 (dusting of snow that changed to rain at 33 with .2 precip)

That was a 15 day stretch of temps here from Dec 26th 2017 to January 9th 2018. If I recall correctly, the I-20 corridor, especially in Louisiana and Texas, got multiple big snow events. Ice was 6 inches thick on creeks here with a dusting of snow to show for it.

I am hoping this is the same version but with precip!  Wasn't the EPO off the charts that year?  It seems a little more normal this year?   Now, for the record, it is one of my analogs this year, and I agree that is a very viable option.  I chickened out using 95-96, and wish I had now.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Euro may have a second system.

If that shortwave doesn't get stuck and wound up over Baja, but instead kicks out, we would have the 12z Euro from yesterday or something like it.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

If that shortwave doesn't get stuck and wound up over Baja, but instead kicks out, we would have the 12z Euro from yesterday or something like it.

Yeah, I think the CMC is gonna win this battle.  It won't be as good with the details, but it is a lot better when cold air is on the table.  The Euro solution at 12z is just an amped solution of the 12z CMC.  

[Daniel Boone]

59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I still think the 12z GFS is off its rocker.  It is the only model sending the winter storm energy into the Four Corners.  I don't think it has been right when it has done this all season.  The CMC is a much more reasonable solution.  The GFS has no support for that solution from other global models at this point.

And the sad thing still is, most Outlets use it in their Outlooks. The local news, most Apps will reflect the GFS 12z in the 7 day Forecast.

[tnweathernut]

If we can’t score with this pattern at 500mb in the heart of winter, when can we?  Still 10 days out, but……….Trends for this general look across ALL modeling has only been strengthening favorably the last 5 days in every area (PNA, AO, NAO, 50/50) & across every model (GFS, GGEM, EPS).  
 

You take this look in the mid south/deep south and Carolinas all day every day and twice on Sunday.  We may get to roll the dice a few times.  Just have to hope we don’t roll snake eyes. JMO