*Flash* Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sooo…anyone want to talk about Sunday/Monday? What the Euro AI is seeing? Could just be cold chasing moisture but it seems like the sniffing out period has begun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wulfer Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I'm gonna say there is ALLOT of snow on the ground to the south of us for almost the entire State of Ga. What say you those current forecasted temps bust for Sunday.?. I'm betting they will and we've seen it before! Actually that snow pack will be to the east of us too! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, *Flash* said: Sooo…anyone want to talk about Sunday/Monday? What the Euro AI is seeing? Could just be cold chasing moisture but it seems like the sniffing out period has begun. Looks like a cool/cold rain for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 31 minutes ago, John1122 said: Looks like a cool/cold rain for us. Yeah, probably right. Winter ain’t over though. That’s for darn sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On a separate note, really happy for my friends down in Mobile/South Alabama. Random anecdote...but for one glorious year, I was a met major at USA. Late 2000’s roughly. Loved the program but ultimately went a different direction as it became clear the occupation would have consumed me entirely. Pretty hard decision back then but made a lot of great friends and let me tell ya, getting an excused absence to go stormchase, doesn’t get much better than that. #ReadySouthGo 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 We need some amplification in the pattern over the CONUS or North America. 0z Euro AIFS shows one way to get there. Now that model drops a continental trough over the west, but at least it shakes up the overall flow from a northern stream racing across southern Canada and squishing everything that has had any idea of amplifying. Hopefully if we can start to get some amplification when we get a more favorable pattern again later in Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like my parents ended up with 6-7in on Okaloosa Island, at least on wooden walkways and vehicles/grass. Seems like the actual sand wouldn’t let more than a couple inches accumulate, and that is further away from the water up next to the dunes. I know everyone is saying a generational or lifetime storm, but I think it’s more than that. The FL records in Pensacola and Ft. Walton have just been obliterated and they go back quite a ways. This very well is a century or more storm for them. New Oreleans too bc it just set a new daily record snowfall! Add Mobile to that too I saw 10in recorded there. Now to the east of about Okaloosa Island as you go into Destin, the totals went down due to sleet and mixing. Still, even 2-3in is unheard of for FL and this will go down in history! I know we were talking about Ludlam’s Early American Winters a couple days ago. This reminds me of something you would read in one of his books! Truly remarkable!!! Maybe one day we can experience something relatable here. I’m not sure what that would be, but we can dream, right! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 31 minutes ago, Jed33 said: Looks like my parents ended up with 6-7in on Okaloosa Island, at least on wooden walkways and vehicles/grass. Seems like the actual sand wouldn’t let more than a couple inches accumulate, and that is further away from the water up next to the dunes. I know everyone is saying a generational or lifetime storm, but I think it’s more than that. The FL records in Pensacola and Ft. Walton have just been obliterated and they go back quite a ways. This very well is a century or more storm for them. New Oreleans too bc it just set a new daily record snowfall! Add Mobile to that too I saw 10in recorded there. Now to the east of about Okaloosa Island as you go into Destin, the totals went down due to sleet and mixing. Still, even 2-3in is unheard of for FL and this will go down in history! I know we were talking about Ludlam’s Early American Winters a couple days ago. This reminds me of something you would read in one of his books! Truly remarkable!!! Maybe one day we can experience something relatable here. I’m not sure what that would be, but we can dream, right! That something relatable here he mentions, would be 40+ inches of roof crushing snow. We just don’t ever want to see that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Certified wild, ya'll. For our areas, I'd say this winter is on pace for 'Could have been better, could have been worse' territory. We'll see how February/March fills this in... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Icy Hot said: That something relatable here he mentions, would be 40+ inches of roof crushing snow. We just don’t ever want to see that. Yeah definitely don’t want a roof crushing snow that’s for sure, but that’s a good guess I’d say if we had a comparable event here to what they had there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, *Flash* said: Certified wild, ya'll. For our areas, I'd say this winter is on pace for 'Could have been better, could have been worse' territory. We'll see how February/March fills this in... Big ouch for northern LA and central MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: Big ouch for northern LA and central MS. You got that right, I live in the Nw part of that blank area in MS, first storm missed by 50 miles to the north and this last one we only had a virga snow this far north. Don’t know if there’s time to recover anything for this area this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just looking at the morning MJO plots, the GMON(GEFS ext weeklies) finally broke towards the faster Euro solution which races through warm phases. That sets up the second week of February(edit) for maybe a return to cold temps. You can see the cold rotating down the Rockies and spreading immediately eastward at the end of the 0z Euro. The AIFS has it going down the front range - MAJOR overrunning signal for west Tenn if the AIFS is anywhere close to being correct. For now, I cautiously give the Euro a nod of a quicker return to cold. If true, that is eerily similar to 95-96 in terms of progression. LOTS of warm in between cold shots. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Just looking at the morning MJO plots, the GMON(GEFS ext weeklies) finally broke towards the faster Euro solution which races through warm phases. That sets up the second week of January for maybe a return to cold temps. You can see the cold rotating down the Rockies and spreading immediately eastward at the end of the 0z Euro. The AIFS has it going down the front range - MAJOR overrunning signal for west Tenn if the AIFS is anywhere close to being correct. For now, I cautiously give the Euro a nod of a quicker return to cold. If true, that is eerily similar to 95-96 in terms of progression. LOTS of warm in between cold shots. Carver, you meant February, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, WinterWonderland said: Carver, you meant February, right? Yeah, sorry. You can see modeling adjusting today towards that faster MJO rotation. The 12z GFS has it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Intense cold in January can result in cold/dry. Intense cold during February can yield big winter storms in the Lower 48. Models will often underestimate the strength of storms(northwest jog) and underestimate precipitation amounts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, *Flash* said: Certified wild, ya'll. For our areas, I'd say this winter is on pace for 'Could have been better, could have been worse' territory. We'll see how February/March fills this in... Areas which have under performed would be the Plains(that might get fixed during Feb) and the NE Coast. W VA is just racking up snow. The southern reaches of the Sierras (just eyeballing) could use some more snow. The Gulf Coast is set for the next 50 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The SER is also showing up in d10-15 as well. That probably teleconnects well to the MJO phase. Looks a lot like phase 7. Now, we just need to get it around into 8-1-2 without a stall(probable). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12z Euro is crazy cold late in the run....might be the coldest air mass of the season if it verifies. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On the 12z Euro, it looks like a dam break(d12-16)....the entirety of the cold airmass in Canada heads south. BIG differences in the MJO. American modeling seems to have moved markedly to the Euro camp overnight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The biggest thing I have to change(in my thinking) is now climatology supports heavy snow in the Florida Panhandle. LOL. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just looking across deterministic runs d10-15, there is decent agreement of very cold air invading the Lower 48 again. To me this looks like a front range(of the Rockies) or Plains initial shot. Then the real question that arises is how far to the east does it spread. All three globals have cold racing down the Canadian Prairies at the end of their runs. The Euro manages to get the cold all the way to the Gulf Coast yet again. The Euro has a fairly extreme blocking scheme over Alaska. That is the mechanism that was missing yesterday. I still think the cold (potential)shot is just at the fingertips of deterministic runs and we will see variation for sure. I get pretty excited about cold during February. We haven't had a lot of that recently. Cold February storms will often over perform which is why they are fun. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Quote 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Just looking across deterministic runs d10-15, there is decent agreement of very cold air invading the Lower 48 again. To me this looks like a front range(of the Rockies) or Plains initial shot. Then the real question that arises is how far to the east does it spread. All three globals have cold racing down the Canadian Prairies at the end of their runs. The Euro manages to get the cold all the way to the Gulf Coast yet again. The Euro has a fairly extreme blocking scheme over Alaska. That is the mechanism that was missing yesterday. I still think the cold (potential)shot is just at the fingertips of deterministic runs and we will see variation for sure. I get pretty excited about cold during February. We haven't had a lot of that recently. Cold February storms will often over perform which is why they are fun. Hopefully will be enough to close up the snow hole over Nw MS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 29 minutes ago, david30 said: Hopefully will be enough to close up the snow hole over Nw MS. Mississippi is always a tough sell for snow, but I admittedly don't watch MS much during winter. If the cold is deep enough though, it could. Northern MS is in the game in my book if overrunning persists on modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The now postive PDO is definitely having an effect on the Pattern. Models have consistently tried to do away with the PNA in the LR or at least waffle to and from it only to bring it back. The MJO once in warm Phases should throw it off kilter for a bit but, once it reaches PH 7 expect it to reassert. We can get some big Rain to Snow Events in 7. Then, if it gets to 8 at decent Amp I think the whole Forum should cash in with a formidable Storm or two. The Feb. '85 possible resemblance or the '96 one Carver's alluded to may have merit. I think the only drawback will be if the MJO doesn't make it past 6 or the Nina is able to augment the Central Pac Ridge during the warm phase period. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The 18z GFS is interesting at d10. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The 18z GFS just hammered the Southeast(portions of TN included). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 hours ago, Icy Hot said: How so? In all seriousness, man the long range sure wants to load up the upstream/front range with extreme cold poised to dump our way again in Feb. Maybe we get a little SER to push against and slow down the stall line? idk what I'm talking about, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night so 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 hours ago, Knoxtron said: In all seriousness, man the long range sure wants to load up the upstream/front range with extreme cold poised to dump our way again in Feb. Maybe we get a little SER to push against and slow down the stall line? idk what I'm talking about, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night so I like that meme, man. I am gonna use that for personal use. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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